Does a lapse in appropriations for any federal agency begin between noon on 3 Jan 2027 and 7 Nov 2027, the start of fiscal 2028 on 1 Oct 2027 included?
From Q-033Sealed 9 Nov 2026Resolves by 7 Nov 2027Open
Our standing estimate
Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.
1
No: Funding lapse begins by 7 Nov 2027
60% · likely · confidence not registered
The documents published by 7 Dec 2027 show it did not happen in the window.
F-0379 · Open
2
Funding lapse begins by 7 Nov 2027
38% · unlikely · confidence not registered
A lapse in appropriations for any federal agency begins in the window, the start of fiscal 2028 on 1 Oct 2027 included.
F-0378 · Open
3
Not settled: Funding lapse begins by 7 Nov 2027
2% · almost no chance · confidence not registered
The record published by 7 Dec 2027 does not settle whether it happened.
F-0380 · Open
The situation when it was sealed (9 Nov 2026). Fiscal 2028 starts on 1 Oct 2027, and spending needs new laws in 2027.
How it moved
Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.
The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.
Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.
Row
Sealed
Estimate
Status
1
F-0379
9 Nov 2026
60%
Open
2
F-0378
9 Nov 2026
38%
Open
3
F-0380
9 Nov 2026
2%
Open
Reassessments
No reassessment yet.
Signposts
What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.
No signpost is published for this question yet.
Why it matters, by category
Regulation and compliance
Will the majorities use funding and the debt limit, and when do those fights fall due?
By 7 November 2027 the firm puts a debt-limit law at 40%, a funding lapse at 38%, and a money law conditioning a power, with no lapse, at 34%: our estimate, set by the firm, scored when it resolves. Read it in the brief
Finance and markets
A lapse is its own outcome within a year, whatever else is enacted, and it counts as open confrontation in the brief's outcomes to 2029.
Countries it touches
The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.
The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.
F-0378
“Resolves if: A lapse in appropriations for any federal agency begins between noon 3 Jan 2027 and 7 Nov 2027 (the start of fiscal 2028 on 1 Oct 2027 included).”
F-0379
“Resolves if: The documents published by 2027-12-07 show that this did NOT happen in its window: A lapse in appropriations for any federal agency begins between noon 3 Jan 2027 and 7 Nov 2027 (the start of fiscal 2028 on 1 Oct 2027 included).”
F-0380
“Resolves if: The record published by 2027-12-07 does not settle whether this happened in its window: A lapse in appropriations for any federal agency begins between noon 3 Jan 2027 and 7 Nov 2027 (the start of fiscal 2028 on 1 Oct 2027 included).”
The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint
F-0378 sealed 9 Nov 2026SHA-256 1b1b1bbd314aa579807e8d25ceec962dff4a18e0738fdbc7f7eee9db8177af56
F-0379 sealed 9 Nov 2026SHA-256 496633dabf8b992a591c5522b047ae3b06ed2f2a9ad71782fcf72599f5e40fad
F-0380 sealed 9 Nov 2026SHA-256 4f4cc5c89032b1e457a61ab4885bfbfdefe070c30fc27ed9d8aedfd054e426bb
Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.