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Key question KQ-60 · Finance and markets

Between noon on 3 Jan 2027 and 7 Nov 2027, is a law raising or suspending the statutory debt limit enacted?

From Q-033 Sealed 9 Nov 2026 Resolves by 7 Nov 2027 Open

Our standing estimate

Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.

  1. No: Debt limit raised by 7 Nov 2027

    58% · likely · confidence not registered

    The documents published by 7 Dec 2027 show it did not happen in the window.

    F-0376 · Open

  2. Debt limit raised by 7 Nov 2027

    40% · unlikely · confidence not registered

    A law raising or suspending the statutory debt limit is enacted between noon on 3 Jan 2027 and 7 Nov 2027.

    F-0375 · Open

  3. Not settled: Debt limit raised by 7 Nov 2027

    2% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

    The record published by 7 Dec 2027 does not settle whether it happened.

    F-0377 · Open

A raise enacted before noon on 3 Jan 2027 is priced by our brief No. 030 and does not count here.

The situation when it was sealed (9 Nov 2026). Spending and borrowing need new laws in 2027, and the majorities can attach conditions that bind once he signs.

How it moved

Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.

How the estimates moved: each point is a sealed register row; the figures are in the table that follows.050100%9 Nov 2026123
The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.
Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.RowSealedEstimateStatus
1F-03769 Nov 202658%Open
2F-03759 Nov 202640%Open
3F-03779 Nov 20262%Open

Reassessments

No reassessment yet.

Signposts

What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.

No signpost is published for this question yet.

Why it matters, by category

Regulation and compliance

  • Will the majorities use funding and the debt limit, and when do those fights fall due?

    By 7 November 2027 the firm puts a debt-limit law at 40%, a funding lapse at 38%, and a money law conditioning a power, with no lapse, at 34%: our estimate, set by the firm, scored when it resolves. Read it in the brief

Finance and markets

  • A debt-limit law is what separates the outcome in which the money is settled clean from the one in which the money fight stays unresolved, to 7 Nov 2027.

Countries it touches

The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.

How it resolves

The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.

  • F-0375

    “Resolves if: A law raising or suspending the statutory debt limit is enacted between noon 3 Jan 2027 and 7 Nov 2027 (a raise enacted in the lame duck before 3 Jan is priced by No. 030, F-0319, and does not count here).”

  • F-0376

    “Resolves if: The documents published by 2027-12-07 show that this did NOT happen in its window: A law raising or suspending the statutory debt limit is enacted between noon 3 Jan 2027 and 7 Nov 2027 (a raise enacted in the lame duck before 3 Jan is priced by No. 030, F-0319, and does not count here).”

  • F-0377

    “Resolves if: The record published by 2027-12-07 does not settle whether this happened in its window: A law raising or suspending the statutory debt limit is enacted between noon 3 Jan 2027 and 7 Nov 2027 (a raise enacted in the lame duck before 3 Jan is priced by No. 030, F-0319, and does not count here).”

The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint
  • F-0375 sealed 9 Nov 2026SHA-256 c14a2b7c34553977922c32e26db5ea7381dbacf55563b5a6195f243432cecaa6
  • F-0376 sealed 9 Nov 2026SHA-256 c8a92021c46f5db1490fd056e50e0a6e9a7e30daaeb21eecd1fdd4bc48113f4b
  • F-0377 sealed 9 Nov 2026SHA-256 dbdeb81db519ad983dcd5690d7aa3e88134c0be5cb791118e0d227337fc6464d

Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.