Between 3 Jan 2027 and 13 Apr 2027, does the House adopt or reject, on a recorded vote, an article of impeachment against the President or any civil officer?
From Q-030Sealed 6 Nov 2026Resolves by 13 Apr 2027Open
Our standing estimate
Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.
1
No: House impeachment vote held
82% · very likely · confidence not registered
The documents published by 13 May 2027 show it did not happen in the window.
F-0350 · Open
2
House impeachment vote held
15% · very unlikely · confidence not registered
The House adopts or rejects an article of impeachment on a recorded vote in the window; a vote to table or refer does not count.
F-0349 · Open
3
Not settled: House impeachment vote held
3% · almost no chance · confidence not registered
The record published by 13 May 2027 does not settle whether it happened.
F-0351 · Open
The situation when it was sealed (6 Nov 2026). From 3 Jan 2027 the new Democratic Congress sits, and Democrats hold both chambers.
How it moved
Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.
The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.
Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.
Row
Sealed
Estimate
Status
1
F-0350
6 Nov 2026
82%
Open
2
F-0349
6 Nov 2026
15%
Open
3
F-0351
6 Nov 2026
3%
Open
Reassessments
No reassessment yet.
Signposts
What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.
No signpost is published for this question yet.
Why it matters, by category
Geopolitics and conflict
It is one test of what the new Democratic majority does after 3 January, dated to 13 Apr 2027.
Countries it touches
The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.
The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.
F-0349
“Resolves if: The House adopts or rejects, on a recorded vote, an article of impeachment against the President or any civil officer between 3 Jan 2027 and 13 Apr 2027 (a vote to table or refer does not count).”
F-0350
“Resolves if: The documents published by 2027-05-13 show that this did NOT happen in its window: The House adopts or rejects, on a recorded vote, an article of impeachment against the President or any civil officer between 3 Jan 2027 and 13 Apr 2027 (a vote to table or refer does not count).”
F-0351
“Resolves if: The record published by 2027-05-13 does not settle whether this happened in its window: The House adopts or rejects, on a recorded vote, an article of impeachment against the President or any civil officer between 3 Jan 2027 and 13 Apr 2027 (a vote to table or refer does not count).”
The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint
F-0349 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 e291a60a0e9c9cc6bae8035cefef68c219e828d319d817bba4d4196f5f48f4eb
F-0350 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 5ea3dd0db30d71e7ab761a8d460da991c47e699ee528f9d9b9bf5e5eab1f5d8e
F-0351 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 52466cb7d71c7c3933a7289ae275609e75842c3e9be5261891275eaf32282643
Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.