Does an appropriations or debt-limit law enacted between 3 Jan 2027 and 13 Apr 2027 bar or condition a named presidential action?
From Q-030Sealed 6 Nov 2026Resolves by 13 Apr 2027Open
Our standing estimate
Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.
1
No: Funding law limits a power
59% · likely · confidence not registered
The documents published by 13 May 2027 show it did not happen in the window.
F-0344 · Open
2
Funding law limits a power
35% · unlikely · confidence not registered
An appropriations or debt-limit law enacted in the window carries a provision that bars or conditions a named presidential action: force against Iran, a tariff, an impoundment, a firing or an order.
F-0343 · Open
3
Not settled: Funding law limits a power
6% · very unlikely · confidence not registered
The record published by 13 May 2027 does not settle whether it happened.
F-0345 · Open
The situation when it was sealed (6 Nov 2026). The 11 December funding deadline decides which money lever the new majority inherits.
How it moved
Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.
The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.
Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.
Row
Sealed
Estimate
Status
1
F-0344
6 Nov 2026
59%
Open
2
F-0343
6 Nov 2026
35%
Open
3
F-0345
6 Nov 2026
6%
Open
Reassessments
No reassessment yet.
Signposts
What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.
No signpost is published for this question yet.
Why it matters, by category
Regulation and compliance
The brief asks what the new Democratic majority can actually stop after 3 January.
Countries it touches
The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.
The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.
F-0343
“Resolves if: An appropriations or debt-limit law enacted between 3 Jan 2027 and 13 Apr 2027 carries a provision that bars or conditions a named presidential action (force against Iran, a tariff, an impoundment, a firing, an order).”
F-0344
“Resolves if: The documents published by 2027-05-13 show that this did NOT happen in its window: An appropriations or debt-limit law enacted between 3 Jan 2027 and 13 Apr 2027 carries a provision that bars or conditions a named presidential action (force against Iran, a tariff, an impoundment, a firing, an order).”
F-0345
“Resolves if: The record published by 2027-05-13 does not settle whether this happened in its window: An appropriations or debt-limit law enacted between 3 Jan 2027 and 13 Apr 2027 carries a provision that bars or conditions a named presidential action (force against Iran, a tariff, an impoundment, a firing, an order).”
The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint
F-0343 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 0b371f78c8794dfbe118f5d07ce1ac6093f59298994748710a1936d4c2028423
F-0344 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 f86de231a3606c9b25885e2ff1b6d5999bdb1c49c072be248b50b31af495165c
F-0345 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 ccb509b4e871ec5759f124c9aa392444d2acaa9b18afcaa3372b991d278cdf66
Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.