Between 3 Jan 2027 and 13 Apr 2027, do both chambers vote by two-thirds to override at least one presidential veto?
From Q-030Sealed 6 Nov 2026Resolves by 13 Apr 2027Open
Our standing estimate
Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.
1
No: Any veto overridden by 13 Apr
89% · very likely · confidence not registered
The documents published by 13 May 2027 show it did not happen in the window.
F-0341 · Open
2
Any veto overridden by 13 Apr
9% · very unlikely · confidence not registered
Both chambers vote by two-thirds to override at least one presidential veto between 3 Jan 2027 and 13 Apr 2027.
F-0340 · Open
3
Not settled: Any veto overridden by 13 Apr
2% · almost no chance · confidence not registered
The record published by 13 May 2027 does not settle whether it happened.
F-0342 · Open
The situation when it was sealed (6 Nov 2026). If all vote and every Democrat and independent backs an override, 11 to 13 Republican senators would need to join; at most 5 have this Congress.
How it moved
Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.
The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.
Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.
Row
Sealed
Estimate
Status
1
F-0341
6 Nov 2026
89%
Open
2
F-0340
6 Nov 2026
9%
Open
3
F-0342
6 Nov 2026
2%
Open
Reassessments
No reassessment yet.
Signposts
What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.
No signpost is published for this question yet.
Why it matters, by category
Geopolitics and conflict
Short of an override, the brief finds Congress's binding limits on him by April run through money.
Countries it touches
The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.
The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.
F-0340
“Resolves if: Both chambers vote by two-thirds to override at least one presidential veto between 3 Jan 2027 and 13 Apr 2027.”
F-0341
“Resolves if: The documents published by 2027-05-13 show that this did NOT happen in its window: Both chambers vote by two-thirds to override at least one presidential veto between 3 Jan 2027 and 13 Apr 2027.”
F-0342
“Resolves if: The record published by 2027-05-13 does not settle whether this happened in its window: Both chambers vote by two-thirds to override at least one presidential veto between 3 Jan 2027 and 13 Apr 2027.”
The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint
F-0340 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 d455a95aa4e425f54a4de4c92352cf70b06ed4da96015e7ff9433942b4dfd5f8
F-0341 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 882bd5aff7255c049cad6439c00327893d3196205f68556ae1eb2fa5ceb12894
F-0342 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 f013f1f679d2160990916516acb4504592269d33f7d63e0ef9af08c9a020c7eb
Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.