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Key question KQ-50 · Geopolitics and conflict

Between 5 Nov 2026 and 13 Apr 2027, is a bill or joint resolution that ends, limits or defunds US hostilities against Iran enacted, signed or passed over a veto?

From Q-030 Sealed 6 Nov 2026 Resolves by 13 Apr 2027 Open

Our standing estimate

Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.

  1. No: Law limiting force on Iran

    89% · very likely · confidence not registered

    The documents published by 13 May 2027 show it did not happen in the window.

    F-0338 · Open

  2. Law limiting force on Iran

    7% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

    A bill or joint resolution that ends, limits or defunds US hostilities against Iran, a funding limit in an enacted appropriations act included, is enacted, signed or passed over a veto in the window.

    F-0337 · Open

  3. Not settled: Law limiting force on Iran

    4% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

    The record published by 13 May 2027 does not settle whether it happened.

    F-0339 · Open

The situation when it was sealed (6 Nov 2026). Both chambers adopted an Iran war-powers resolution in June, yet such resolutions are never presented to him, and force resumed in July, as reported.

How it moved

Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.

How the estimates moved: each point is a sealed register row; the figures are in the table that follows.050100%6 Nov 2026123
The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.
Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.RowSealedEstimateStatus
1F-03386 Nov 202689%Open
2F-03376 Nov 20267%Open
3F-03396 Nov 20264%Open

Reassessments

No reassessment yet.

Signposts

What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.

No signpost is published for this question yet.

Why it matters, by category

Geopolitics and conflict

  • From January, Democrats hold both chambers but fall short of the two-thirds a veto override needs.

Countries it touches

The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.

How it resolves

The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.

  • F-0337

    “Resolves if: A bill or joint resolution that ends, limits or defunds US hostilities against Iran (a funding limitation in an enacted appropriations act included) is enacted, signed or passed over a veto, between 5 Nov 2026 and 13 Apr 2027.”

  • F-0338

    “Resolves if: The documents published by 2027-05-13 show that this did NOT happen in its window: A bill or joint resolution that ends, limits or defunds US hostilities against Iran (a funding limitation in an enacted appropriations act included) is enacted, signed or passed over a veto, between 5 Nov 2026 and 13 Apr 2027.”

  • F-0339

    “Resolves if: The record published by 2027-05-13 does not settle whether this happened in its window: A bill or joint resolution that ends, limits or defunds US hostilities against Iran (a funding limitation in an enacted appropriations act included) is enacted, signed or passed over a veto, between 5 Nov 2026 and 13 Apr 2027.”

The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint
  • F-0337 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 c3917398a37ba919c4eb027a8900b49df91337931a2e88961a1d6d9f2e813df9
  • F-0338 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 eccf61565ddd169c955fe84f4f29e71a82bd34f02cb3310fb89268671c4e689e
  • F-0339 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 74ede71e3f34208996e3dbbbb66534acb834b55116a94a1c13895f2656fd43d0

Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.