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Key question KQ-49 · Geopolitics and conflict

Between 5 Nov 2026 and noon EST on 3 Jan 2027, does the Justice Department file in a federal court to overturn, delay or block certification of a 2026 federal election result?

From Q-030 Sealed 6 Nov 2026 Resolves by 3 Jan 2027 Open

Our standing estimate

Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.

  1. No: US files to contest a 2026 result

    93% · very likely · confidence not registered

    The documents published by 31 Jan 2027 show it did not happen in the window.

    F-0335 · Open

  2. US files to contest a 2026 result

    4% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

    The United States (the Justice Department) files a complaint, petition or brief in a federal court in the window that seeks to overturn, delay or block certification of a 2026 federal election result.

    F-0334 · Open

  3. Not settled: US files to contest a 2026 result

    3% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

    The record published by 31 Jan 2027 does not settle whether it happened.

    F-0336 · Open

The situation when it was sealed (6 Nov 2026). The Alaska and Mississippi Senate races were uncalled on 5 November, and the President has called it largely true, as reported, that the war cost Republicans.

How it moved

Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.

How the estimates moved: each point is a sealed register row; the figures are in the table that follows.050100%6 Nov 2026123
The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.
Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.RowSealedEstimateStatus
1F-03356 Nov 202693%Open
2F-03346 Nov 20264%Open
3F-03366 Nov 20263%Open

Reassessments

No reassessment yet.

Signposts

What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.

No signpost is published for this question yet.

Why it matters, by category

Geopolitics and conflict

  • The brief asks what he has said about the result while two Senate races are uncalled; this question asks whether the United States goes to court over one.

Countries it touches

The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.

How it resolves

The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.

  • F-0334

    “Resolves if: The United States (the Justice Department) files a complaint, petition or brief in a federal court, dated 5 Nov 2026 to noon EST 3 Jan 2027, that seeks to overturn, delay or block certification of a 2026 federal election result.”

  • F-0335

    “Resolves if: The documents published by 2027-01-31 show that this did NOT happen in its window: The United States (the Justice Department) files a complaint, petition or brief in a federal court, dated 5 Nov 2026 to noon EST 3 Jan 2027, that seeks to overturn, delay or block certification of a 2026 federal election result.”

  • F-0336

    “Resolves if: The record published by 2027-01-31 does not settle whether this happened in its window: The United States (the Justice Department) files a complaint, petition or brief in a federal court, dated 5 Nov 2026 to noon EST 3 Jan 2027, that seeks to overturn, delay or block certification of a 2026 federal election result.”

The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint
  • F-0334 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 a6ebec615a583dcb539b5828aea9ac6539c180185be70f65f6fa74419edc223d
  • F-0335 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 bfd81ba62b76675871443607bc04c9c9d709f503ab1837e483df92cf82a201c2
  • F-0336 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 9b980f671f1313fc20528b7fd6779c6b0bd92ba7ca4ec1e996d22f9594b2a9c6

Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.