Between 5 Nov 2026 and noon EST on 3 Jan 2027, does he declare a new national emergency by proclamation or order (a notice continuing an existing one does not count)?
From Q-030Sealed 6 Nov 2026Resolves by 3 Jan 2027Open
Our standing estimate
Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.
1
No: New national emergency declared
68% · likely · confidence not registered
The documents published by 31 Jan 2027 show it did not happen in the window.
F-0332 · Open
2
New national emergency declared
28% · unlikely · confidence not registered
A new national emergency is declared by a proclamation or executive order signed in the window.
F-0331 · Open
3
Not settled: New national emergency declared
4% · almost no chance · confidence not registered
The record published by 31 Jan 2027 does not settle whether it happened.
F-0333 · Open
The situation when it was sealed (6 Nov 2026). An order or proclamation needs no vote, and he has signed 293 orders since January 2025.
How it moved
Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.
The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.
Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.
Row
Sealed
Estimate
Status
1
F-0332
6 Nov 2026
68%
Open
2
F-0331
6 Nov 2026
28%
Open
3
F-0333
6 Nov 2026
4%
Open
Reassessments
No reassessment yet.
Signposts
What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.
No signpost is published for this question yet.
Why it matters, by category
Regulation and compliance
A new national emergency is one of the three acts that count as him acting alone in the brief's scenarios, with a new strike on Iran and a pre-emptive pardon.
Countries it touches
The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.
The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.
F-0331
“Resolves if: A new national emergency is declared by proclamation or executive order signed 5 Nov 2026 to noon EST 3 Jan 2027 (a notice continuing an existing emergency does not count).”
F-0332
“Resolves if: The documents published by 2027-01-31 show that this did NOT happen in its window: A new national emergency is declared by proclamation or executive order signed 5 Nov 2026 to noon EST 3 Jan 2027 (a notice continuing an existing emergency does not count).”
F-0333
“Resolves if: The record published by 2027-01-31 does not settle whether this happened in its window: A new national emergency is declared by proclamation or executive order signed 5 Nov 2026 to noon EST 3 Jan 2027 (a notice continuing an existing emergency does not count).”
The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint
F-0331 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 064649a797bb9e905633907d43b0a648ad68dbe7f804ddf1402719ab61e899a0
F-0332 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 ccbd465ad283786f84f5effd000c96b6951caf534c62499750880ef0ac05a9f5
F-0333 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 1299e46330ec15c3dec78a9e799e53861a9dead14042bb5b8d51f3ad41cb41ab
Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.