Are five or more Article III judges confirmed after 5 Nov 2026 and before noon EST on 3 Jan 2027, by the US Courts confirmation listing?
From Q-030Sealed 6 Nov 2026Resolves by 3 Jan 2027Open
Our standing estimate
Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.
1
Five or more judges confirmed
75% · likely · confidence not registered
Five or more Article III judges are confirmed in the window, by the US Courts confirmation listing.
F-0328 · Open
2
No: Five or more judges confirmed
22% · unlikely · confidence not registered
The documents published by 31 Jan 2027 show it did not happen in the window.
F-0329 · Open
3
Not settled: Five or more judges confirmed
3% · almost no chance · confidence not registered
The record published by 31 Jan 2027 does not settle whether it happened.
F-0330 · Open
The situation when it was sealed (6 Nov 2026). By noon on 3 January the outgoing Senate can confirm 16 judicial nominees.
How it moved
Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.
The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.
Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.
Row
Sealed
Estimate
Status
1
F-0328
6 Nov 2026
75%
Open
2
F-0329
6 Nov 2026
22%
Open
3
F-0330
6 Nov 2026
3%
Open
Reassessments
No reassessment yet.
Signposts
What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.
No signpost is published for this question yet.
Why it matters, by category
Regulation and compliance
It is a power of the outgoing Senate, which sits until the new Democratic Congress does on 3 Jan 2027.
Countries it touches
The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.
The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.
F-0328
“Resolves if: Five or more Article III judges are confirmed with a confirmation date after 5 Nov 2026 and before noon EST on 3 Jan 2027, by the US Courts confirmation listing.”
F-0329
“Resolves if: The documents published by 2027-01-31 show that this did NOT happen in its window: Five or more Article III judges are confirmed with a confirmation date after 5 Nov 2026 and before noon EST on 3 Jan 2027, by the US Courts confirmation listing.”
F-0330
“Resolves if: The record published by 2027-01-31 does not settle whether this happened in its window: Five or more Article III judges are confirmed with a confirmation date after 5 Nov 2026 and before noon EST on 3 Jan 2027, by the US Courts confirmation listing.”
The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint
F-0328 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 51290ff9ba369921ac7146301a3b7701d9ff2963453a830b594d5600f5028028
F-0329 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 fde267a2c66c6d4c5654bdafcde3832926d9de4db53b774182931e85eeb4b637
F-0330 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 b5930b586b08ee5f44d9d67f285eedbac786dc2f009041c5fe48b14c55f664a1
Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.