Between 5 Nov 2026 and noon EST on 3 Jan 2027, does a proclamation or published US-Canada arrangement end or lower the 50% Section 338 duty on Canadian products, or remove lines or a list from it?
From Q-030Sealed 6 Nov 2026Resolves by 3 Jan 2027Open
Our standing estimate
Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.
1
No: Canada duty cut by proclamation
62% · likely · confidence not registered
The documents published by 31 Jan 2027 show it did not happen in the window.
F-0326 · Open
2
Canada duty cut by proclamation
33% · unlikely · confidence not registered
A proclamation or published US-Canada arrangement in the window ends or lowers the 50% Section 338 duty, or removes tariff lines or a product list from it.
F-0325 · Open
3
Not settled: Canada duty cut by proclamation
5% · very unlikely · confidence not registered
The record published by 31 Jan 2027 does not settle whether it happened.
F-0327 · Open
The situation when it was sealed (6 Nov 2026). The Canada duty, 50% since 22 August, has moved only by proclamation.
How it moved
Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.
The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.
Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.
Row
Sealed
Estimate
Status
1
F-0326
6 Nov 2026
62%
Open
2
F-0325
6 Nov 2026
33%
Open
3
F-0327
6 Nov 2026
5%
Open
Reassessments
No reassessment yet.
Signposts
What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.
No signpost is published for this question yet.
Why it matters, by category
Trade, tariffs and sanctions
He can raise or cut the main tariff programmes alone before 3 January.
Can he raise or cut the main tariff programmes alone before 3 January?
The firm puts a cut to the Canada duty or its lists before 3 January at 33%, our estimate, set by the firm, scored when it resolves. Read it in the brief
Countries it touches
The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.
The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.
F-0325
“Resolves if: A proclamation or published US-Canada arrangement dated 5 Nov 2026 to noon EST 3 Jan 2027 ends or lowers the 50% Section 338 duty on products of Canada, or removes tariff lines or a product list from it.”
F-0326
“Resolves if: The documents published by 2027-01-31 show that this did NOT happen in its window: A proclamation or published US-Canada arrangement dated 5 Nov 2026 to noon EST 3 Jan 2027 ends or lowers the 50% Section 338 duty on products of Canada, or removes tariff lines or a product list from it.”
F-0327
“Resolves if: The record published by 2027-01-31 does not settle whether this happened in its window: A proclamation or published US-Canada arrangement dated 5 Nov 2026 to noon EST 3 Jan 2027 ends or lowers the 50% Section 338 duty on products of Canada, or removes tariff lines or a product list from it.”
The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint
F-0325 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 0cca545db53aecc107ea25ce9b4d06a2ab6d918f1d48389308fb4402eec651b1
F-0326 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 c82bfbd8272cbc722a93d49a98da26afe0259086fced08048de957fd816390d6
F-0327 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 456c87fb4b3d1421dd5349fff536f7b501784c47364bb6ea9705df98f39a8392
Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.