Between 5 Nov 2026 and 13 Apr 2027, is a law raising or suspending the statutory debt limit enacted?
From Q-030Sealed 6 Nov 2026Resolves by 13 Apr 2027Open
Our standing estimate
Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.
1
No: Debt limit raised by 13 Apr
76% · likely · confidence not registered
The documents published by 13 May 2027 show it did not happen in the window.
F-0347 · Open
2
Debt limit raised by 13 Apr
22% · unlikely · confidence not registered
A law raising or suspending the statutory debt limit is enacted between 5 Nov 2026 and 13 Apr 2027.
F-0346 · Open
3
Not settled: Debt limit raised by 13 Apr
2% · almost no chance · confidence not registered
The record published by 13 May 2027 does not settle whether it happened.
F-0348 · Open
The situation when it was sealed (6 Nov 2026). The brief asks about the debt limit at two dates: noon on 3 January, when the new Congress sits, and 13 April 2027.
How it moved
Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.
The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.
Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.
Row
Sealed
Estimate
Status
1
F-0347
6 Nov 2026
76%
Open
2
F-0346
6 Nov 2026
22%
Open
3
F-0348
6 Nov 2026
2%
Open
Reassessments
No reassessment yet.
Signposts
What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.
No signpost is published for this question yet.
Why it matters, by category
Regulation and compliance
Will the government shut down on 11 December, and will the debt limit be lifted before January?
The firm puts a shutdown before 3 January at 25% and full-year funding by then at 15%. It puts a debt-limit raise at 15% by 3 January and 22% by 13 April. Read it in the brief
Finance and markets
A debt-limit law enacted after 3 January is one place the brief looks for a provision that bars or conditions a named presidential action.
Countries it touches
The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.
The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.
F-0346
“Resolves if: A law raising or suspending the statutory debt limit is enacted between 5 Nov 2026 and 13 Apr 2027.”
F-0347
“Resolves if: The documents published by 2027-05-13 show that this did NOT happen in its window: A law raising or suspending the statutory debt limit is enacted between 5 Nov 2026 and 13 Apr 2027.”
F-0348
“Resolves if: The record published by 2027-05-13 does not settle whether this happened in its window: A law raising or suspending the statutory debt limit is enacted between 5 Nov 2026 and 13 Apr 2027.”
The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint
F-0346 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 3f770cff854ebb5d5538b2570ca881063a6e93c90580d833c6fe8fe70bd814df
F-0347 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 2b8938c4beb7f779511754989bc98ebcaaec7e2b3532992ae31fac27687edc51
F-0348 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 915817544df9c4cbe1f343ef69118815af95c095804d528d94fc65e4ffea86a3
Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.