Between 5 Nov 2026 and noon EST on 3 Jan 2027, is a law raising or suspending the statutory debt limit enacted?
From Q-030Sealed 6 Nov 2026Resolves by 3 Jan 2027Open
Our standing estimate
Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.
1
No: Debt limit raised by 3 Jan
83% · very likely · confidence not registered
The documents published by 31 Jan 2027 show it did not happen in the window.
F-0320 · Open
2
Debt limit raised by 3 Jan
15% · very unlikely · confidence not registered
A law raising or suspending the statutory debt limit is enacted in the window.
F-0319 · Open
3
Not settled: Debt limit raised by 3 Jan
2% · almost no chance · confidence not registered
The record published by 31 Jan 2027 does not settle whether it happened.
F-0321 · Open
The situation when it was sealed (6 Nov 2026). Borrowing room under the debt limit could run out as early as February 2027; the projected hard deadline is about February 2028.
How it moved
Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.
The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.
Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.
Row
Sealed
Estimate
Status
1
F-0320
6 Nov 2026
83%
Open
2
F-0319
6 Nov 2026
15%
Open
3
F-0321
6 Nov 2026
2%
Open
Reassessments
No reassessment yet.
Signposts
What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.
No signpost is published for this question yet.
Why it matters, by category
Regulation and compliance
Will the government shut down on 11 December, and will the debt limit be lifted before January?
The firm puts a shutdown before 3 January at 25% and full-year funding by then at 15%. It puts a debt-limit raise at 15% by 3 January and 22% by 13 April. Read it in the brief
Finance and markets
A debt-limit law, with full-year funding, is what separates the scenarios that settle the money from those that leave it to the new Congress.
Countries it touches
The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.
The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.
F-0319
“Resolves if: A law raising or suspending the statutory debt limit is enacted 5 Nov 2026 to noon EST 3 Jan 2027.”
F-0320
“Resolves if: The documents published by 2027-01-31 show that this did NOT happen in its window: A law raising or suspending the statutory debt limit is enacted 5 Nov 2026 to noon EST 3 Jan 2027.”
F-0321
“Resolves if: The record published by 2027-01-31 does not settle whether this happened in its window: A law raising or suspending the statutory debt limit is enacted 5 Nov 2026 to noon EST 3 Jan 2027.”
The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint
F-0319 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 2b41c355fa8da41f9c8b60da86c62a864324b872412c5b4225e6cff5a86c44a6
F-0320 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 bf3f84bd82a2794a02079b057a1c594b6afee4b72bcc6f48fe5d13a1f4aab6e6
F-0321 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 48f4c84a95181d37699cc8e0de37bc32be2753437c52364f3f07e7dfbd9fa97b
Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.