Does a lapse in appropriations for any federal agency begin between 12 Dec 2026 and noon EST on 3 Jan 2027?
From Q-030Sealed 6 Nov 2026Resolves by 3 Jan 2027Open
Our standing estimate
Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.
1
No: Shutdown starts before 3 Jan
72% · likely · confidence not registered
The documents published by 31 Jan 2027 show it did not happen in the window.
F-0323 · Open
2
Shutdown starts before 3 Jan
25% · unlikely · confidence not registered
A lapse in appropriations for any federal agency begins between 12 Dec 2026 and noon EST on 3 Jan 2027.
F-0322 · Open
3
Not settled: Shutdown starts before 3 Jan
3% · almost no chance · confidence not registered
The record published by 31 Jan 2027 does not settle whether it happened.
F-0324 · Open
The situation when it was sealed (6 Nov 2026). The brief asks whether the government will shut down on 11 December, when the continuing resolution in P.L. 119-103 runs out.
How it moved
Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.
The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.
Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.
Row
Sealed
Estimate
Status
1
F-0323
6 Nov 2026
72%
Open
2
F-0322
6 Nov 2026
25%
Open
3
F-0324
6 Nov 2026
3%
Open
Reassessments
No reassessment yet.
Signposts
What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.
No signpost is published for this question yet.
Why it matters, by category
Regulation and compliance
Will the government shut down on 11 December, and will the debt limit be lifted before January?
The firm puts a shutdown before 3 January at 25% and full-year funding by then at 15%. It puts a debt-limit raise at 15% by 3 January and 22% by 13 April. Read it in the brief
Finance and markets
A lapse that begins before 3 January is its own scenario in the brief, whatever the President does with his other powers.
Countries it touches
The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.
The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.
F-0322
“Resolves if: A lapse in appropriations for any federal agency begins between 12 Dec 2026 and noon EST on 3 Jan 2027.”
F-0323
“Resolves if: The documents published by 2027-01-31 show that this did NOT happen in its window: A lapse in appropriations for any federal agency begins between 12 Dec 2026 and noon EST on 3 Jan 2027.”
F-0324
“Resolves if: The record published by 2027-01-31 does not settle whether this happened in its window: A lapse in appropriations for any federal agency begins between 12 Dec 2026 and noon EST on 3 Jan 2027.”
The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint
F-0322 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 ed41d61077709fcced1e534b5d37fb7bb6e7219da1da04ef6e88caeb7589fe9d
F-0323 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 1accf4b3656f36164ab0dd1ee945fff0e7827e435fe01c49bf814f037233e2a0
F-0324 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 ab349d796c2805df3ee29ec2ca61063a6e916edc2a1f4ec192f419e9152b18cb
Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.