Between 5 Nov 2026 and noon EST on 3 Jan 2027, are full-year FY2027 appropriations for all of government enacted, with no lapse in that window?
From Q-030Sealed 6 Nov 2026Resolves by 3 Jan 2027Open
Our standing estimate
Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.
1
No: Full-year funding, no lapse, by 3 Jan
81% · very likely · confidence not registered
The documents published by 31 Jan 2027 show it did not happen in the window.
F-0317 · Open
2
Full-year funding, no lapse, by 3 Jan
15% · very unlikely · confidence not registered
Full-year FY2027 appropriations for all of government are enacted in the window, and no lapse begins in it.
F-0316 · Open
3
Not settled: Full-year funding, no lapse, by 3 Jan
4% · almost no chance · confidence not registered
The record published by 31 Jan 2027 does not settle whether it happened.
F-0318 · Open
The situation when it was sealed (6 Nov 2026). Government funding runs out on 11 December, when the continuing resolution in P.L. 119-103 ends.
How it moved
Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.
The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.
Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.
Row
Sealed
Estimate
Status
1
F-0317
6 Nov 2026
81%
Open
2
F-0316
6 Nov 2026
15%
Open
3
F-0318
6 Nov 2026
4%
Open
Reassessments
No reassessment yet.
Signposts
What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.
No signpost is published for this question yet.
Why it matters, by category
Regulation and compliance
Will the government shut down on 11 December, and will the debt limit be lifted before January?
The firm puts a shutdown before 3 January at 25% and full-year funding by then at 15%. It puts a debt-limit raise at 15% by 3 January and 22% by 13 April. Read it in the brief
Finance and markets
Whatever the outgoing Congress leaves unpassed on 11 December becomes the new majority's main hold on him.
Countries it touches
The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.
The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.
F-0316
“Resolves if: Full-year FY2027 appropriations for all of government are enacted 5 Nov 2026 to noon EST 3 Jan 2027, and no lapse in appropriations begins in that window.”
F-0317
“Resolves if: The documents published by 2027-01-31 show that this did NOT happen in its window: Full-year FY2027 appropriations for all of government are enacted 5 Nov 2026 to noon EST 3 Jan 2027, and no lapse in appropriations begins in that window.”
F-0318
“Resolves if: The record published by 2027-01-31 does not settle whether this happened in its window: Full-year FY2027 appropriations for all of government are enacted 5 Nov 2026 to noon EST 3 Jan 2027, and no lapse in appropriations begins in that window.”
The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint
F-0316 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 c674a4beafe608aa6b56370a4523d8554c336451f254feea329749c3ac215078
F-0317 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 cdf690a2ea8fbbc6b0bf1f84bcc9764349270390c08b1bb5e7113cfd76e093e2
F-0318 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 383f90a2a1bef7cb0703ea863d386d2f119c540ad78c52a0607b5f6a10a0d294
Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.