KQ-41: Between 5 Nov 2026 and noon EST on 3 Jan 2027, does he pardon a current or former official of his administration, or a relative, for conduct with no conviction?

Our standing estimate

Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.

No: Pre-emptive pardon of an official

82% · very likely · confidence not registered

The documents published by 31 Jan 2027 show it did not happen in the window.

F-0314 · Open
Pre-emptive pardon of an official

12% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

At least one pardon in the window to a current or former official of his administration, or a relative, for conduct with no conviction at the date of the grant.

F-0313 · Open
Not settled: Pre-emptive pardon of an official

6% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

The record published by 31 Jan 2027 does not settle whether it happened.

F-0315 · Open

The situation when it was sealed (6 Nov 2026). Pardons need no vote; he has pardoned 139 people since January 2025, and the Justice Department lists none after 13 October.

How it moved

Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.

The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.

Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.	Row	Sealed	Estimate	Status
1	F-0314	6 Nov 2026	82%	Open
2	F-0313	6 Nov 2026	12%	Open
3	F-0315	6 Nov 2026	6%	Open

Reassessments

No reassessment yet.

Signposts

What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.

No signpost is published for this question yet.

Why it matters, by category

Regulation and compliance

A pre-emptive pardon is one of the three acts that count as him acting alone in the brief's scenarios, with a new strike on Iran and a new national emergency.
Will he pardon his officials pre-emptively before January?
The firm puts a pardon by noon on 3 January to a current or former official or relative, for conduct with no conviction, at 12%: our estimate, set by the firm, scored when it resolves. Read it in the brief

Countries it touches

The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.

United States

How it resolves

The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.

F-0313
“Resolves if: At least one pardon dated 5 Nov 2026 to noon EST 3 Jan 2027 to a current or former official of his administration, or a relative, for conduct with no conviction at the date of the grant.”
F-0314
“Resolves if: The documents published by 2027-01-31 show that this did NOT happen in its window: At least one pardon dated 5 Nov 2026 to noon EST 3 Jan 2027 to a current or former official of his administration, or a relative, for conduct with no conviction at the date of the grant.”
F-0315
“Resolves if: The record published by 2027-01-31 does not settle whether this happened in its window: At least one pardon dated 5 Nov 2026 to noon EST 3 Jan 2027 to a current or former official of his administration, or a relative, for conduct with no conviction at the date of the grant.”

The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint

F-0313 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 957401c9abbb9d8b1c1eaeac17dc68fb5a4d8d74407894cdaf72410db99e2789
F-0314 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 ad39cf0ef8cb3e98b61ff59dc8794365771a9d62b72eab632bc7c598e75baf57
F-0315 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 420c144583fceeacc637a56134f59af57319d0e4b67f3f9625cdb04666889824

Go further

Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.