Key question KQ-39 · Geopolitics and conflict

Between 5 Nov 2026 and noon on 3 Jan 2027, does the President strike Iran, pardon an official pre-emptively or declare a new national emergency; does funding lapse; and are full-year funding and a debt-limit raise both enacted?

From Q-030 Sealed 6 Nov 2026 Resolves by 3 Jan 2027 Open

Our standing estimate

Six outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.

Quiet exit, money left

34.8% · unlikely · confidence not registered

No new strike on Iran, no pre-emptive pardon and no new national emergency; no lapse; but full-year funding for all of government or a debt-limit raise, or both, is not enacted by noon on 3 Jan 2027.

F-0305 · Open
He acts alone, money left

29.5% · unlikely · confidence not registered

He acts alone at least once; no lapse; but full-year funding or a debt-limit raise, or both, is not enacted by noon on 3 Jan 2027.

F-0307 · Open
Funding lapses before handover

24% · unlikely · confidence not registered

A lapse in appropriations for any federal agency begins between 12 Dec 2026 and noon on 3 Jan 2027, after the continuing resolution in P.L. 119-103 runs out on 11 Dec 2026, whatever else happens.

F-0308 · Open
Quiet exit, money settled

4.2% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

No new strike on Iran, no pre-emptive pardon of an official or relative and no new national emergency; no lapse; full-year funding and a debt-limit raise or suspension both enacted by noon on 3 Jan 2027.

F-0304 · Open
All other outcomes

4% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

The documents published by 31 Jan 2027 do not settle whether he took an irreversible act alone in the window, whatever happens to funding and the debt limit.

F-0309 · Open
He acts alone, money settled

3.5% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

He acts alone at least once (a new strike on Iran, a pre-emptive pardon of an official or relative, or a new national emergency); no lapse; full-year funding and a debt-limit raise both enacted by noon on 3 Jan 2027.

F-0306 · Open

The situation when it was sealed (6 Nov 2026). Until noon on 3 January he keeps the powers that need no vote: pardons, orders, tariffs and force against Iran.

How it moved

Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.

The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.

Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.	Row	Sealed	Estimate	Status
1	F-0305	6 Nov 2026	34.8%	Open
2	F-0307	6 Nov 2026	29.5%	Open
3	F-0308	6 Nov 2026	24%	Open
4	F-0304	6 Nov 2026	4.2%	Open
5	F-0309	6 Nov 2026	4%	Open
6	F-0306	6 Nov 2026	3.5%	Open

Reassessments

No reassessment yet.

Signposts

What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.

No signpost is published for this question yet.

Why it matters, by category

Geopolitics and conflict

From 3 January Democrats sit 11 to 13 senators short of an override, so Congress's binding limits by April run through money.

Regulation and compliance

What can the President still do before 3 January, and what can Congress limit?
Likeliest to 3 January: a quiet exit, with money left to the new Congress, 35%, our estimate, set by the firm, scored when it resolves. Read it in the brief

Countries it touches

The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.

United States

How it resolves

The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.

F-0304
“Resolves if: Between 5 Nov 2026 and noon on 3 Jan 2027 there is no new US strike on Iranian territory, no pre-emptive pardon of an official or relative and no new national emergency; no lapse in appropriations begins; and full-year FY2027 appropriations for all of government and a law raising or suspending the debt limit are both enacted by noon on 3 Jan 2027.”
F-0305
“Resolves if: Between 5 Nov 2026 and noon on 3 Jan 2027 there is no new US strike on Iranian territory, no pre-emptive pardon of an official or relative and no new national emergency; no lapse in appropriations begins; and at least one of full-year funding for all of government or a debt-limit raise or suspension is not enacted by noon on 3 Jan 2027.”
F-0306
“Resolves if: Between 5 Nov 2026 and noon on 3 Jan 2027 at least one of: a new US strike on Iranian territory (acknowledged or reported to Congress), a pre-emptive pardon of a current or former official of his administration or a relative, or a new national emergency; no lapse in appropriations begins; and full-year FY2027 appropriations and a debt-limit raise or suspension are both enacted by noon on 3 Jan 2027.”
F-0307
“Resolves if: Between 5 Nov 2026 and noon on 3 Jan 2027 at least one of: a new US strike on Iranian territory (acknowledged or reported to Congress), a pre-emptive pardon of a current or former official of his administration or a relative, or a new national emergency; no lapse in appropriations begins; and at least one of full-year funding for all of government or a debt-limit raise or suspension is not enacted by noon on 3 Jan 2027.”
F-0308
“Resolves if: A lapse in appropriations for any federal agency begins between 12 Dec 2026 and noon on 3 Jan 2027, after the continuing resolution in P.L. 119-103 runs out on 11 Dec 2026, whatever the President does with his other powers and whatever is enacted afterwards.”
F-0309
“Resolves if: The documents published by 31 Jan 2027 do not settle whether the President took an irreversible act alone between 5 Nov 2026 and noon on 3 Jan 2027 (for example a strike reported but neither acknowledged nor reported to Congress, or a grant the DOJ list does not date), whatever happens to funding and the debt limit.”

The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint

F-0304 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 0a54e40c6b8b0b4fa52d27b61e2a9ce5f37077dc086de7bc92e18aae15368153
F-0305 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 f69c3b1d1fcc937db3e5e54f1d9c89dc301ec8fbc3baecd8fd2ad187462a3b25
F-0306 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 fb47865b0551dce268117b1a66b95a7381e0530d12eadc8d3763aa93f309b25f
F-0307 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 7359545cdb44653172cb680ec08ac8c4061da04705e21a78be0d9d19d8b213c0
F-0308 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 032b1cf9ee278de356353b8d49c67d0f82238d1953e63194b9eec2d1a98a71db
F-0309 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 be1aa94edf992f049ccbfd6e486f11f10b36bfc359e6cf5282b37a045501053e

Go further

Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.