F-0191 to F-0194A set of 4 outcomes · C-005 Edition 2.0Open
On 10 Jan 2027, are China's suspension of its October-2025 export controls and the US suspension of the Affiliates Rule both still in effect, and for how long: a short roll-over, a longer settlement, or have both lapsed?
- Rolled on a short clock63%
- Settled for longer22%
- Both clocks lapse8%
- All other outcomes7%
Sealed 3 Oct 2026 · first shown here 8 Oct 2026Resolves by 10 Jan 2027Scored on 24 Jan 2027
Settled by, word for word, for each outcome
F-0191:
- the Federal Register (BIS notices on the Affiliates Rule, https://www.federalregister.gov/) and MOFCOM announcements (http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/) - both published free
F-0192:
- the Federal Register (https://www.federalregister.gov/), MOFCOM announcements (http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/) and any published US-China agreement text (White House / USTR releases) - all free
F-0193, F-0194:
- the Federal Register (https://www.federalregister.gov/) and MOFCOM announcements (http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/) - both published free
Scored when it resolves: one Brier score for the whole set, from 0 (perfect) to 2. For a set of four outcomes, even odds (25% each) score 0.75; lower is better.
The full card in the forecast register · The controls behind it, in the tracker