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European Union

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Malta2 actions from China1 action to China1 action to Iran1. China: 2 in, 1 out, China12. 1 action aimed at Iran, Iran2
  • European Union
  • Line = who aimed at whom
  1. China: 2 in, 1 out 2 aimed at European Union, 1 from European Union aimed at it · China
  2. 1 action aimed at Iran 1 action from European Union aimed at it · Iran

Number = the place in the table below · Blue solid line = aimed at this place · Orange dashed line = issued by it · Tap a country to open it

As of 31 Oct 2026. Source: Official announcements, gathered by Strature.

2Aimed at it
3Issued by it
1Stand-offs
0Next dates

Stand-offs

Stand-off 3

China-EU listings

China listed 7 EU entities in April 2026 and 14 in July 2026, the day after the EU's 21st Russia package listed Chinese firms; in October the two sides agreed to warn each other before listing or delisting.

4 moves
  1. 24 Apr 2026 · China7 EU entities on the export control list
  2. 23 Jul 2026 · European UnionEU's 21st Russia sanctions package lists 14-15 mainland Chinese and Hong Kong firms (counts differ by source) Low confidence
  3. 24 Jul 2026 · China14 EU entities on the control list
  4. 9 Oct 2026 · European UnionEU and China agree advance warning on export-control listings and delistings

Our forecasts

F-0210C-005 Edition 2.0Open

By 10 Jan 2027, does China halt rare-earth permanent-magnet export licences to US or EU buyers generally, not only to named entities?

4% our probability · almost no chance

Sealed 3 Oct 2026 · first shown here 8 Oct 2026Resolves by 10 Jan 2027Scored on 24 Jan 2027

Settled by, word for word

  • MOFCOM announcements (http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/) and GAC monthly export statistics (http://english.customs.gov.cn/) - published free

Scored when it resolves: Brier score against the baseline of 0.25 (a 50% guess).

The full card in the forecast register · The controls behind it, in the tracker

Actions aimed at it

2 actions
  1. 24 Jul 2026 · China · In force · Dual-use, no single technology14 EU entities on the control listAimed at: the EUMOFCOM Announcement No. 30 of 2026 Chinese text
  2. 24 Apr 2026 · China · In force · Dual-use, no single technology7 EU entities on the export control listAimed at: the EUMOFCOM Announcement No. 20 of 2026 Chinese text

Actions it issued

3 actions
  1. 23 Jul 2026 · European Union · In force · Dual-use, no single technologyEU's 21st Russia sanctions package lists 14-15 mainland Chinese and Hong Kong firms (counts differ by source)Aimed at: ChinaCommission DORIE card: EU adopts 21st package of sanctions against Russia (Official Journal text not read) English text Low confidence
  2. 14 Nov 2025 · European Union · In force · QuantumEU dual-use list updated: quantum computers, chip tools and a new EU-only 500 seriesAimed at: all destinationsDelegated Regulation (EU) 2025/2003, OJ L 14.11.2025 English text
  3. 20 Jul 2023 · European Union · In force · Drones and uncrewed systemsEU export bar on drone components to IranAimed at: IranEUR-Lex: Regulation (EU) 2023/1529 English text Medium confidence

Listed, not counted

15 actions
  1. 9 Oct 2026 · European Union · Agreed · Dual-use, no single technologyEU and China agree advance warning on export-control listings and delistings EasesAimed at: ChinaCommission statement 26/2122 English text
  2. 14 Sep 2026 · European Union · Proposed · Dual-use, no single technology2026 update of the EU dual-use list adopted by the CommissionAimed at: all destinationslaw-firm note English text secondary source only: a news or law-firm note Low confidence
  3. 24 Jul 2026 · European Union · In force · AI (models and compute)EU AI Act amended: high-risk duties moved to Dec 2027 and Aug 2028, new banned practices added (AI Omnibus) EasesAimed at: the EUEuropean Commission, AI Act page English text Medium confidence
  4. 5 Feb 2026 · European Union · In force · Telecoms, cloud and dataCable Security Toolbox and €347 million for strategic cable projectsAimed at: all destinationsCommission note on the toolbox English text
  5. 20 Jan 2026 · European Union · Proposed · Telecoms, cloud and dataRevised Cybersecurity Act proposed: mandatory removal of high-risk third-country suppliers from EU mobile networksAimed at: all destinationsCommission press release IP/26/105 English text
  6. 30 Jul 2025 · European Union · In force · BatteriesEU puts back battery supply-chain due-diligence duties by two years, to August 2027 EasesAimed at: all destinationsRegulation (EU) 2025/1561 English text Medium confidence
  7. 23 Jun 2025 · European Union · In force · QuantumEU member states publish a coordinated roadmap for the move to post-quantum cryptographyAimed at: the EUEuropean Commission, Shaping Europe's digital future English text
  8. 21 Feb 2025 · European Union · In force · Telecoms, cloud and dataEU Action Plan on Cable Security: prevent, detect, respond, deterAimed at: all destinationsCommission press release IP/25/580 English text
  9. 12 Jul 2024 · European Union · In force · AI (models and compute)EU AI Act: risk-based duties on AI placed on the EU market, including general-purpose modelsAimed at: all destinationsCommission note on the AI Act English text
  10. 28 Jun 2024 · European Union · In force · BatteriesEU Net-Zero Industry Act: batteries named a net-zero technology; public buyers and auctions must weigh supply resilience where one country supplies over half, or a fast-rising shareAimed at: all destinationsRegulation (EU) 2024/1735 English text Medium confidence
  11. 11 Apr 2024 · European Union · In force · QuantumCommission asks member states for a coordinated roadmap to post-quantum cryptographyAimed at: all destinationsCommission C(2024) 2393 English text
  12. 21 Feb 2024 · European Union · In force · Telecoms, cloud and dataCommission recommendation on secure and resilient submarine cablesAimed at: all destinationsCommission library English text
  13. 28 Jul 2023 · European Union · In force · BatteriesEU Batteries Regulation: sustainability, safety, labelling and supply-chain due-diligence duties on all batteries sold in the EUAimed at: all destinationsCommission page on batteries English text
  14. 15 Jun 2023 · European Union · In force · Telecoms, cloud and dataCommission says two Chinese vendors pose materially higher 5G risks and stops using them in its own networksAimed at: ChinaCommission library page English text
  15. 29 Jan 2020 · European Union · In force · Telecoms, cloud and dataEU 5G toolbox: member states to assess suppliers' risk and restrict high-risk suppliers in key parts of 5G networksAimed at: all destinationsCommission press release IP/20/123 English text

The same data as a table

Who aims at European Union and where it aims: restrictive actions in force or suspended
PlaceIts actions aimed at European UnionActions by European Union aimed at it
1. China21
2. Iran01