Canada's capital projects: who is exposed
13 countries reach a published materiality line on at least one channel: 6 are named in a released brief (●) and 7 are not (○). 8 have at least one High band. Canada is the host country of this theme and carries no band.
Each country’s band is its highest channel band, from the published lines below. Our briefs on the theme: Q-021 · Q-025 · Q-026. Choose a country for its page.
Map
HighMediumLowHost countryNot included
Natural Earth 1:110m; small states (Bahrain, Singapore) are too small to draw at this scale and are listed. Boundaries as drawn by the source; no position on any dispute is implied.
Ranked
By band, then the number of High, Medium and Low channels. ● named in a released brief, ○ not named.
- CanadaHost country, not banded
- United States●2H 2M
- United Kingdom●2H 1M
- Japan●1H 3M
- Germany○1H 2M 1L
- China●1H 1M 1L
- South Korea●1H 1M 1L
- Australia○1H 1L
- United Arab Emirates●1H
- Malaysia○2M
- France○1M 1L
- India○1M
- Singapore○1M
- Saudi Arabia○1L
Every included country, its band, its channels and its lead figure.
The table: 13 countries
| Country | In a brief | Band | Channels | Lead figure |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | Named | Host country | Capital pledgedProject equity | C$180bn Capital pledged, Nov 2025-Sep 2026 |
| United States | Named | High | FDI stockProcurementCapital pledgedProject equity | 51% FDI stock, 2025 |
| United Kingdom | Named | High | Project equityOfftakeFDI stock | C$12.8bn Project equity, 2026 |
| Japan | Named | High | ProcurementFDI stockProject equityOfftake | C$10.5bn Procurement, 2025 FX |
| Germany | Not named | High | Project equityOfftakeProcurementFDI stock | C$7bn Project equity, 2023-2030 |
| China | Named | High | OfftakeProject equityFDI stock | 29.5% of cargo records Offtake, Jun 2025-Jul 2026 |
| South Korea | Named | High | OfftakeCapital pledgedProject equity | 37.7% of cargo records Offtake, Jun 2025-Jul 2026 |
| Australia | Not named | High | FDI stockCapital pledgedOfftake | C$10bn (up to) Capital pledged, 2026-03 |
| United Arab Emirates | Named | High | FDI stockCapital pledged | C$69.9bn Capital pledged, 2025 FX |
| Malaysia | Not named | Medium | Project equityOfftake | C$6.6bn capital-cost share Project equity, 2026- |
| France | Not named | Medium | OfftakeFDI stock | 2 Mtpa Offtake, 2025-05 |
| India | Not named | Medium | Offtake | C$2.6bn Offtake, 2026-03 |
| Singapore | Not named | Medium | Project equity | C$9.46bn (capital-cost share, upper bound) Project equity, 2026 |
| Saudi Arabia | Not named | Low | Capital pledged | over C$1bnest. Capital pledged, 2026-07 |
Lead figures come from the country readings, researched from public sources and kept in our country dossiers; a figure from press or commentary is marked est.
How a country is included and banded.
A published judgement, reviewed when a new theme is added. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.
A country is in the theme if its headline metric on at least one channel reaches that channel's inclusion line. Canada is the host (own group). A country named in a theme brief (Q-021, Q-025, Q-026, T-001) but below every line is dropped unless the brief makes it central (primary). Bands are set per channel; a country's theme band is its highest channel band. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium. US$ amounts are converted at the Bank of Canada 2025 average, 1.3978 C$ per US$ (CAN-canada-capital-projects-scope-1).
- Capital pledged High ≥10 · Medium 3–10 · Low 1–3Pledged or announced investment into Canada by a country's state funds, pension funds or companies, 2025-2026. Included from ≥1
- FDI stock High ≥10% · Medium 3–10% · Low 2–3%Direct investment stock in Canada, share of Canada's inward FDI (C$1,600.5bn, 2025). Included from ≥2%
- Project equity High ≥5 · Medium 2–5 · Low 1–2Equity attributable to a country's firms in a Canadian major project at or after FID. Included from ≥1
- Offtake High ≥4 Mtpa, or ≥C$5bn, or ≥25% of records · Medium ≥2 Mtpa, or ≥C$2bn, or 10-25% of records · Low ≥1 Mtpa, or ≥C$1bnContracted offtake from Canadian projects (LNG Mtpa; uranium or minerals by value), or share of Kitimat LNG cargo records. Included from ≥1 Mtpa, or ≥C$1bn contract value, or ≥10% of cargo records
- Procurement High ≥10 · Medium 3–10 · Low 1–3Contract value won (or preferred-bidder position) by a country's firms on Canadian major projects or defence programmes. Included from ≥1. Preferred bidder or unsigned: capped at Medium.
- Rival for capital Watch not bandedA rival market for the same infrastructure allocations (qualitative). Included from named as a top destination for infrastructure capital
General lines
- C$1bn pledged, invested, contracted or won is the inclusion line on every money channel: below it a country's stake is one deal, not a position. C$10bn is the High line (a stake comparable to one large Canadian pension fund's pledge in Q-021, Exhibit X3).
- 10% of a measured Canadian flow (Kitimat cargo records; inward FDI stock uses 2%) is the share line.
- A pledge counts at face value but is labelled 'pledged, not placed' (Q-021: 1 of 7 pledges placed). A preferred-bidder or MoU position caps its channel at Medium until signed.
a press or commentary figure is kept with confidence low and shown as an estimate; it can include a country, but a High band needs at least one medium- or high-confidence figure.