BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 PRODID:-//Strature//Risk calendar//EN CALSCALE:GREGORIAN METHOD:PUBLISH X-WR-CALNAME:Strature risk calendar X-WR-TIMEZONE:UTC X-WR-CALDESC:Our calls\, scheduled events\, signposts\, risk windows and op portunity dates. https://strature.net/calendar/ BEGIN:VEVENT UID:f-0074-window@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260822 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Risk window: Registered window: Will US or Israeli forces strike Ir an between 22 August and 20 November 2026? DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, declared. Source: Forecast register\, S-001 https ://strature.net/calendar/#card=F-0074-WINDOW URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=F-0074-WINDOW TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:q-023-window@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260925 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261107 SUMMARY:Risk window: Q-023: the brief's six-week window DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, declared. The six-week window closed on 6 Novembe r 2026. Source: Decision Brief Q-023 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=Q -023-WINDOW URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=Q-023-WINDOW TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:c-005-taiwan-window@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261002 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270701 SUMMARY:Risk window: Registered window: Between 2 Oct 2026 and 30 Jun 2027\ , does the PLA stage a named joint exercise around Taiwan\, do China and t he Philippines come to an armed clash\, or does it go further? DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, declared. Source: Forecast register\, C-005 https ://strature.net/calendar/#card=C-005-TAIWAN-WINDOW URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=C-005-TAIWAN-WINDOW TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:f-0233-window@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261009 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270701 SUMMARY:Risk window: Registered window: Between 9 Oct 2026 and 30 Jun 2027\ , do PRC authorities impose inspections\, a quarantine or a closure on tra ffic to at least one Taiwan port\, or do PLA forces attack Taiwan-held ter ritory or forces? DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, declared. Source: Forecast register\, C-005 https ://strature.net/calendar/#card=F-0233-WINDOW URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=F-0233-WINDOW TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:q-028-window@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261014 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270629 SUMMARY:Risk window: Registered window: Between 14 Oct 2026 and 28 Jun 2027 \, do the US and Iran agree a text\, does the US strike Iran\, and does an y EIA weekly regular-gasoline print fall below $3.50? DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, declared. Source: Forecast register\, Q-028 https ://strature.net/calendar/#card=Q-028-WINDOW URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=Q-028-WINDOW TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:n-2026-0004-c1@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261017 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261018 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: China's live-fire areas reopen DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Named in Strature Note N-2026-0004: China holds live-fire drills off its coast\; Taiwan watches for more. Sou rce: Focus Taiwan (CNA)\, https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202610120006 htt ps://strature.net/calendar/#card=N-2026-0004-C1 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=N-2026-0004-C1 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:n-2026-0001-c1@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261019 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261020 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: China Q3 GDP and September activity data\, 10:00 B eijing DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Named in Strature Note N-2026-0001: China's September surplus puts the 2025 record within reach. Source: Nati onal Bureau of Statistics of China\, https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/Pres sRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html https://strature.ne t/calendar/#card=N-2026-0001-C1 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=N-2026-0001-C1 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:n-2026-0008-c1@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261019 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261107 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Stellantis Windsor Assembly idled (weeks of 19 Oct \, 26 Oct and 2 Nov) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Named in Strature Note N-2026-0008 : Stellantis workers in Canada back a strike as auto tariffs loom. Source: CBC News\, https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/stellantis-tariffs-cana da-layoffs-windsor-assembly-plant-9.7367151 https://strature.net/calendar/ #card=N-2026-0008-C1 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=N-2026-0008-C1 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:e-bra-runoff@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261025 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261026 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Brazil presidential runoff: Flávio Bolsonaro agai nst Lula DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Neither candidate passed half of th e valid votes in the 4 Oct first round (TSE count)\, so the runoff goes ah ead. Source: Superior Electoral Court (TSE)\, election calendar\, https:// www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/calendario-eleitoral https://strature.net/calendar /#card=E-BRA-RUNOFF URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=E-BRA-RUNOFF TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:e-fomc-2026-10@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261027 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261029 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: US Federal Reserve: FOMC meeting DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Federal Reserve\, FOMC cale ndar\, https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm htt ps://strature.net/calendar/#card=E-FOMC-2026-10 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=E-FOMC-2026-10 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:e-isr-knesset@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261027 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261028 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Israel: election to the 26th Knesset DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Falls inside the registered window of our strike call (F-0074). Source: Government of Israel\, Elections to t he 26th Knesset\, https://www.gov.il/en/pages/knesset-elections-2026 https ://strature.net/calendar/#card=E-ISR-KNESSET URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=E-ISR-KNESSET TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:e-boc-2026-10@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261028 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261029 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Bank of Canada rate announcement\, with the Moneta ry Policy Report DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Bank of Canada\, 2026 sched ule\, https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/08/bank-canada-publishes-2026-sched ule-policy-interest-rate-announcements-other-major-publications/ https://s trature.net/calendar/#card=E-BOC-2026-10 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=E-BOC-2026-10 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-552e6ad1@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261030 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261031 SUMMARY:Signpost: End of the reported US licences for NIS's operations and for MOL's talks\; OFAC approval of the purchase was still needed in Oct 20 26. Status of US sanctions on NIS. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Serbia (Gulf w ar / Hormuz) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-552E6AD1 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-552E6AD1 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-49d6966ecf@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Refinery-gate diesel discount ends DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: The Nation (Thailand). Sour ce: World risk: Thailand's state-managed diesel price reaches 50 baht a li tre https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-49d6966ecf URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-49d6966ecf TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-54e3c46507@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Target for a budget deal to avoid provisional twel fths DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: The Brussels Times (Belga) . Source: World risk: De Wever's five-party government falls over the budg et https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-54e3c46507 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-54e3c46507 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-87bff97620@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Russia's producer diesel export ban ends unless re newed DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: TASS. Source: World risks: A big fuel exporter bans or halts diesel exports to protect its home marke t\; A second EU country rations diesel or jet fuel https://strature.net/ca lendar/#card=w-87bff97620 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-87bff97620 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-c3a88915ca@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: CGA monthly accounts for April-September 2026 (31 Oct is a Saturday\; by the next business day\, 2 Nov) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Controller General of Acco unts. Source: World risk: India's war-year subsidies push its deficit abov e the 4.3% target https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-c3a88915ca URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-c3a88915ca TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:n-2026-0004-c2@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: The November-December drill season Taiwan's minist ry named DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Named in Strature Note N-2026-0004 : China holds live-fire drills off its coast\; Taiwan watches for more. So urce: Focus Taiwan (CNA\, S. Lin)\, https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202610 150010 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=N-2026-0004-C2 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=N-2026-0004-C2 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-156afb43d0@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Earliest reported date for the 2027 eligibility ou tcome DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: BusinessTech. Source: Worl d risk: The US removes South Africa from AGOA's duty-free list https://str ature.net/calendar/#card=w-156afb43d0 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-156afb43d0 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-7d5bf2945e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: France starts a new six-month period of internal b order controls\, Spain and Italy included DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: European Commission\, DG Mi gration and Home Affairs. Source: World risk: Spain and Italy bring back b order checks on each other https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-7d5bf2945 e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-7d5bf2945e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-9c480ec302@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Oleshky local truce due to end (22:59 Kyiv time) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Ukrainska Pravda. Source: W orld risk: Russia and Ukraine sign a general ceasefire on the current fron t line https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9c480ec302 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9c480ec302 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-b1e3bcc69d@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Restart of both units assumed in Nuclearelectrica' s revised budget DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Economica.net. Source: Wor ld risk: Romania limits power to consumers in a supply crisis https://stra ture.net/calendar/#card=w-b1e3bcc69d URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b1e3bcc69d TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-cd9b245564@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Ministry's October export release (October 2023 da ta came out on 1 Nov) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: KED Global. Source: World risk: South Korea's chip export boom turns into a fall https://strature.ne t/calendar/#card=w-cd9b245564 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-cd9b245564 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-ef3e92ee0c@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: OPEC+ meeting of the seven countries DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Bernama (Xinhua). Source: W orld risks: Saudi barrels return and Brent falls below US$70\; Free of OPE C\, the UAE pumps above 4 mb/d for a quarter https://strature.net/calendar /#card=w-ef3e92ee0c URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-ef3e92ee0c TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-f2392d25ca@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Fortnightly review of fuel export duties DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Capital.com. Source: World risk: India caps or halts diesel and jet fuel exports to protect its home market https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-f2392d25ca URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-f2392d25ca TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-fc30d45694@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Monthly meeting of the seven OPEC+ countries\; Sau di November target 10.5 mb/d DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: OPEC. Source: World risk: T he Strait of Hormuz shuts again https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-fc30 d45694 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-fc30d45694 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-4074b40c@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261102 SUMMARY:Signpost: October exports to the Middle East\; US$20.4bn in 2025. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Republic of Ko rea (Gulf war / Hormuz) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-4074B40C URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-4074B40C TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-5539a654@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261102 SUMMARY:Signpost: MOTIE export figures for October\; semiconductor exports were US$173.4bn in 2025. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Republic of Ko rea (Chipmaking in Taiwan) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-5539A654 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-5539A654 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-e0b91a51@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261102 SUMMARY:Signpost: OPEC+ meets again. Saudi Arabia's required level for Nove mber is 10.5 mb/d\, against 8.001 mb/d produced in September. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Saudi Arabia ( Gulf war / Hormuz) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-E0B91A51 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-E0B91A51 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-47112e2b5e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261102 SUMMARY:Risk window: Switzerland orders power restrictions or quotas in win ter 2026-27: Scored window opens DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, declared. Source: World risk: Switzerland orders power restrictions or quotas in winter 2026-27 https://strature.net/calend ar/#card=w-47112e2b5e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-47112e2b5e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-224a64897b@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261102 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261103 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Governor Cook's pre-hearing position statement due DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: The White House. Source: Wo rld risk: The US dollar slides 10% on the Fed's broad index https://stratu re.net/calendar/#card=w-224a64897b URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-224a64897b TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-2a50fa35ce@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261102 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261103 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Last reported date to announce an exclusion effect ive 1 Jan 2027 DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Africanews. Source: World risk: The US removes South Africa from AGOA's duty-free list https://strat ure.net/calendar/#card=w-2a50fa35ce URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-2a50fa35ce TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-43762b0e45@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261102 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261103 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: First of five remaining Bundestag sitting weeks in 2026 DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Deutscher Bundestag. Source : World risk: Germany's pension reform misses its new spring target https: //strature.net/calendar/#card=w-43762b0e45 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-43762b0e45 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-96dbfbaebb@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261102 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261103 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Prime Minister's hour: AUR asks Niculescu to expla in the deficit DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Economica.net (AGERPRES). Source: World risk: Romania's new government falls within a year https://s trature.net/calendar/#card=w-96dbfbaebb URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-96dbfbaebb TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:e-usa-midterms@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261103 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261104 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: United States midterm elections DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Federal Election Commission \, election and voting information\, https://www.fec.gov/introduction-camp aign-finance/election-and-voting-information https://strature.net/calendar /#card=E-USA-MIDTERMS URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=E-USA-MIDTERMS TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-00d0c38de1@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261103 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261104 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: US midterm elections\; end of the US President's s tated no-strike period DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: France 24 (AFP). Source: Wo rld risk: The Strait of Hormuz shuts again https://strature.net/calendar/# card=w-00d0c38de1 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-00d0c38de1 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-07dc1d9a5d@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261103 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261104 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: US midterm elections\; President Trump said in Oct ober the US would not attack Iran before them DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Federal Election Commission . Source: World risk: Australia sends a warship to the Strait of Hormuz ht tps://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-07dc1d9a5d URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-07dc1d9a5d TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-2a6f8060c9@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261103 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261104 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: US general (midterm) elections DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Texas Secretary of State. S ource: World risks: The US openly strikes cartel targets inside Mexico wit hout Mexico's consent\; The US charges or sanctions another sitting Mexica n governor or federal official https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-2a6f8 060c9 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-2a6f8060c9 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-397271de4d@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261103 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261104 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: US midterm elections\; strike plans reported for a fter the vote DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Federal Election Commission . Source: World risk: An Iran-linked attack stops Israeli chip fabs for a week https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-397271de4d URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-397271de4d TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-3e5a35ee71@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261103 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261104 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: US midterm elections\; FBI notices on threats to e lection officials DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: FBI Internet Crime Complain t Center. Source: World risk: A state-linked cyber attack cuts power\, wat er or a port for a day or more https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-3e5a3 5ee71 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-3e5a35ee71 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-404cb81806@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261103 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261104 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: National Assembly solemn vote on the budget's firs t part DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Assemblée nationale. Sourc e: World risk: Cost-of-living protests bring down a government in a large EU economy https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-404cb81806 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-404cb81806 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-49cff77300@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261103 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261104 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: EIA weekly retail gasoline and diesel prices (week ly cadence\; the source states only the 27 Oct release) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: US Energy Information Admi nistration. Source: World risk: The Strait of Hormuz shuts again https://s trature.net/calendar/#card=w-49cff77300 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-49cff77300 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-4d70e08fa7@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261103 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261104 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: US midterm elections\; reported date after which a renewed US campaign may start DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: The National. Source: Worl d risk: Egypt cuts gas to its fertiliser plants for two weeks https://stra ture.net/calendar/#card=w-4d70e08fa7 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4d70e08fa7 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-6c827c3e68@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261103 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261104 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: US midterm elections\; reported date after which a renewed US campaign against Iran may start DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: The National. Source: Worl d risk: A Houthi attack hits Egypt or Egyptian forces https://strature.net /calendar/#card=w-6c827c3e68 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-6c827c3e68 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-6f66205203@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261103 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261104 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: US midterm elections DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: France 24 (AFP). Source: Wo rld risks: US gasoline stays at or above US$3.50 a gallon to June 2027\; U nited States: the midterms and a year of policy whiplash on trade\, the bu dget and the Fed\; The US puts a tariff of 10% or more on refined copper f rom Chile\; Washington re-tightens chip export controls on China\; and 7 m ore https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-6f66205203 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-6f66205203 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-835125b6de@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261103 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261104 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: EIA weekly retail diesel prices DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: US Energy Information Admin istration. Source: World risk: A big fuel exporter bans or halts diesel ex ports to protect its home market https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-835 125b6de URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-835125b6de TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-9f45b0d6ec@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261103 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261104 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: US midterm elections\; a possible resumption of at tacks on Iran named by a trader DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Daily Tribune. Source: Wor ld risk: The Philippines declares a new national energy emergency over fue l https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9f45b0d6ec URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9f45b0d6ec TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-a2f4389c8f@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261103 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261104 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: US midterm elections\; end of the President's no-s trike pledge DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: France 24. Source: World ri sk: An Iranian strike halts a UAE port\, plant or airport https://strature .net/calendar/#card=w-a2f4389c8f URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a2f4389c8f TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-a31f27ead1@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261103 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261104 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: US midterm elections\; Congress returns afterwards DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: AP via PBS NewsHour. Source : World risks: The US puts Graham Act secondary tariffs on Chinese goods o ver Russian oil\; The US lifts its Graham Act waiver and puts secondary ta riffs on a buyer of Russian oil\; The US eases sanctions on Russia's oil m ajors while the EU keeps its Russia sanctions\; The US penalises India aga in for buying Russian oil\; and 1 more https://strature.net/calendar/#card =w-a31f27ead1 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a31f27ead1 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-a6067c83f5@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261103 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261104 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: World Bank Pink Sheet\, next update DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: World Bank. Source: World r isk: Canberra steps in again on fertiliser before the 2027 winter crop htt ps://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a6067c83f5 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a6067c83f5 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-a9d6cd2186@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261103 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261104 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: World Bank Pink Sheet with October prices DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: World Bank. Source: World r isk: Urea prices return to crisis levels for the 2027 spring planting http s://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a9d6cd2186 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a9d6cd2186 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-c2970fd33d@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261103 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261104 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: US midterm elections\; the New York Times\, citing unnamed officials (via France 24\, 22 Oct)\, reported strike plans for af ter the vote DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Federal Election Commission . Source: World risk: Israeli chip supply to Ireland stops for a month htt ps://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-c2970fd33d URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-c2970fd33d TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-c9347a08ed@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261103 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261104 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: US midterm elections\; reported date after which a renewed campaign may start DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: The National. Source: Worl d risks: South Africa's regulated diesel price reaches R35 a litre\; The R eserve Bank raises South Africa's repo rate above 7.25%\; The Egyptian pou nd loses a tenth of its value within three months https://strature.net/cal endar/#card=w-c9347a08ed URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-c9347a08ed TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-ce5b81cc3b@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261103 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261104 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: RBA Monetary Policy Board decision (meeting 2-3 No v) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Reserve Bank of Australia. Source: World risk: The Reserve Bank of Australia lifts the cash rate to 4 .85% or more by year end https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-ce5b81cc3b URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-ce5b81cc3b TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-f2a02632ba@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261103 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261104 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Solemn vote on the first part (revenue) of the 202 7 budget bill DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Assemblée nationale. Sourc e: World risk: The Lecornu government falls before France adopts its 2027 budget https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-f2a02632ba URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-f2a02632ba TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-b2f4ddff@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261103 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261104 SUMMARY:Signpost: US midterm elections. Mexico's Secretary of Economy was r eported to have said that signing a review deal before them is the US view \, not Mexico's (press report\, as cited in Q-022). DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Mexico (US tar iffs and Canada) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-B2F4DDFF URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-B2F4DDFF TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-b641f49f@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261103 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261104 SUMMARY:Signpost: US midterm elections. On 8 Oct the US President said ther e would be no attack on Iran before them and that the blockade stays in fo rce (as reported). DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Islamic Republ ic of Iran (Gulf war / Hormuz) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-B641 F49F URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-B641F49F TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:e-statcan-trade-2026-11@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261104 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261105 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Canadian international merchandise trade\, Septemb er data DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Early months under the 50% US duty our Q-022 call is about. Source: Statistics Canada\, 2026-2027 major relea se dates\, https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/release-diffusion/2026-eng.pdf https://strature.net/calendar/#card=E-STATCAN-TRADE-2026-11 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=E-STATCAN-TRADE-2026-11 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-1c46776a50@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261104 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261105 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Local government elections DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: SAnews (South African Gover nment News Agency). Source: World risk: The DA leaves South Africa's Gover nment of National Unity https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-1c46776a50 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-1c46776a50 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-29e0e68438@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261104 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261105 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Next EIA weekly Brent release DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: US Energy Information Admin istration. Source: World risk: Shipping through the Singapore Strait stops for 48 hours or more https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-29e0e68438 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-29e0e68438 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-316cdab193@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261104 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261105 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Copom rate decision (meeting 3-4 Nov) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Bora Investir (B3). Source : World risk: Brazil after the vote: a contested result or a fiscal break https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-316cdab193 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-316cdab193 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-35009ac03e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261104 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261105 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: November fuel price adjustment\; diesel levy cut o f R3/l starts DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: EWN. Source: World risk: So uth Africa's regulated diesel price reaches R35 a litre https://strature.n et/calendar/#card=w-35009ac03e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-35009ac03e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-39c71a74a6@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261104 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261105 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: INEGI RAIAVL\, October light-vehicle output DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: INEGI. Source: World risk: A chip shortage idles a Mexican car or electronics plant for two weeks htt ps://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-39c71a74a6 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-39c71a74a6 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-7bc63e6184@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261104 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261105 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: NVE reservoir statistics\, then weekly (signpost f or the rule) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: NVE. Source: World risk: No rway curbs power exports to Europe https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-7 bc63e6184 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-7bc63e6184 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-d94e8db24a@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261104 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261105 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Minutes of the October meeting DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: BioBioChile. Source: World risk: Chile's central bank raises its policy rate above 4.5% https://strat ure.net/calendar/#card=w-d94e8db24a URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d94e8db24a TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-e45790f8c4@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261104 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261105 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: EIA Henry Hub monthly series: next release\, the f irst that can carry the October average DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: US Energy Information Admin istration. Source: World risk: US natural gas (Henry Hub) averages US$5 pe r MMBtu or more in a winter month https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e4 5790f8c4 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e45790f8c4 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-04a08cea-1@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261104 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261105 SUMMARY:Signpost: Canadian trade data for September and October\, the first full months under the new US duty. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Peru (US tarif fs and Canada) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-04A08CEA-1 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-04A08CEA-1 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-28e9c073-1@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261104 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261105 SUMMARY:Signpost: Statistics Canada trade data for September and October\, the first full months under the 50% US duty on listed Canadian goods in fo rce since 22 Aug 2026. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Turkey (US tar iffs and Canada) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-28E9C073-1 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-28E9C073-1 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-2fbd0611-1@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261104 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261105 SUMMARY:Signpost: US trade data for the first months under the 50% US duty on listed Canadian goods: do US buyers switch origin? DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Brazil (US tar iffs and Canada) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-2FBD0611-1 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-2FBD0611-1 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-31cc1ed8-1@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261104 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261105 SUMMARY:Signpost: Canadian import data by origin\, monthly releases. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Cambodia (US t ariffs and Canada)\; Sri Lanka (US tariffs and Canada) https://strature.ne t/calendar/#card=SG-31CC1ED8-1 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-31CC1ED8-1 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-5c597792-1@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261104 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261105 SUMMARY:Signpost: US trade data for Sep and Oct 2026: the first full months after the 50% duty on listed Canadian goods that can show US buyers movin g to Mexican supply. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Mexico (US tar iffs and Canada) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-5C597792-1 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-5C597792-1 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-87dafc4f-1@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261104 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261105 SUMMARY:Signpost: Canadian trade data for September and October\, early mon ths under the new US duty. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Republic of Ko rea (US tariffs and Canada) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-87DAFC4 F-1 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-87DAFC4F-1 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-8963ebb2-1@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261104 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261105 SUMMARY:Signpost: US trade releases for Sep and Oct 2026: imports of listed Canadian goods in the first full months under the duty. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: United States of America (US tariffs and Canada) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG- 8963EBB2-1 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-8963EBB2-1 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-b88aa2fb-1@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261104 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261105 SUMMARY:Signpost: Canadian trade data for September and October\, the first full months under the 50% US duty on listed Canadian goods from 19 Aug 20 26. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Algeria (US ta riffs and Canada) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-B88AA2FB-1 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-B88AA2FB-1 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-c90af6f5-1@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261104 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261105 SUMMARY:Signpost: Canadian trade data for September and October\, early mon ths under the US duty on listed Canadian goods in force since 22 Aug 2026. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Japan (US tari ffs and Canada)\; Vietnam (US tariffs and Canada) https://strature.net/cal endar/#card=SG-C90AF6F5-1 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-C90AF6F5-1 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-cf3b884e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261104 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261105 SUMMARY:Signpost: Trade data for the first full months under the duty: Q-02 2's decision point. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Canada (US tar iffs and Canada) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-CF3B884E URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-CF3B884E TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-ffc624f7@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261104 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261105 SUMMARY:Signpost: QatarEnergy force majeure to Pakistan due to end (as repo rted). DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Pakistan (Gulf war / Hormuz) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-FFC624F7 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-FFC624F7 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-923df96b5e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261104 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261105 SUMMARY:Signpost: The US tariff wall around Canada and Mexico stays up or g rows: First trade data on who pays the Section 338 duty (Q-022) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: The US tariff wall aro und Canada and Mexico stays up or grows https://strature.net/calendar/#car d=w-923df96b5e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-923df96b5e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-f57711f427@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261104 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261105 SUMMARY:Signpost: United States: the midterms and a year of policy whiplash on trade\, the budget and the Fed: Canada trade data release\, Q-022 deci sion point DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: United States: the mid terms and a year of policy whiplash on trade\, the budget and the Fed http s://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-f57711f427 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-f57711f427 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-008b31e6d3@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261105 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261106 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Norges Bank policy decision DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Norges Bank. Source: World risk: Norway's oil fund falls below NOK 20\,000bn at a quarter end https:/ /strature.net/calendar/#card=w-008b31e6d3 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-008b31e6d3 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-028855f1a4@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261105 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261106 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: White House committee hearing on Governor Cook (he r lawyers say she cannot attend) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: The White House. Source: Wo rld risk: United States: the midterms and a year of policy whiplash on tra de\, the budget and the Fed https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-028855f1 a4 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-028855f1a4 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-1ea942e822@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261105 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261106 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: APK-N meeting with 26.023 on the agenda DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Parlamentsdienste. Source: World risk: Swiss parliament blocks or sends back the EU treaty package ht tps://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-1ea942e822 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-1ea942e822 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-26ff8455ce@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261105 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261106 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Norges Bank policy rate decision DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Norges Bank. Source: World risks: Norges Bank raises its policy rate to 4.75% or more\; The krone giv es back its 2026 gains against the euro https://strature.net/calendar/#car d=w-26ff8455ce URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-26ff8455ce TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-4d4354a0f8@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261105 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261106 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Bank of England MPC decision DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Bank of England. Source: Wo rld risk: A G7 bond rout forces a central bank to buy government bonds htt ps://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4d4354a0f8 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4d4354a0f8 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-6d1a4f649e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261105 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261106 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Budget 2026 DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Department of Finance Canad a. Source: World risk: Canada's real GDP falls for two quarters in a row b y the fourth quarter of 2027 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-6d1a4f6 49e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-6d1a4f649e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-9cb43c4ccd@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261105 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261106 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: White House committee hearing on Governor Cook DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: The White House. Source: Wo rld risks: The president removes Fed Governor Lisa Cook\, and the removal holds\; The US dollar slides 10% on the Fed's broad index https://strature .net/calendar/#card=w-9cb43c4ccd URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9cb43c4ccd TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-c394a06422@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261105 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261106 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Canada tables Budget 2026 DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Department of Finance Canad a. Source: World risk: The US tariff wall around Canada and Mexico stays u p or grows https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-c394a06422 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-c394a06422 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-e1d86d4993@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261105 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261106 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: MPC decision with Monetary Policy Report DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Bank of England. Source: Wo rld risks: The Bank of England raises rates on energy inflation\; The 30-y ear gilt yield closes above 6% https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e1d86 d4993 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e1d86d4993 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-1f0844e144@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261105 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261106 SUMMARY:Risk window: The Czech central bank lifts its main rate to 4.25% or higher: CNB monetary policy meeting and autumn forecast DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, declared. Source: Czech National Bank. Source: Wo rld risk: The Czech central bank lifts its main rate to 4.25% or higher ht tps://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-1f0844e144 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-1f0844e144 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-0ffad0bd79@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261106 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261107 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: FAO Food Price Index for October DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Food and Agriculture Organi zation of the UN. Source: World risks: A strong El Niño through winter 20 26-27 cuts harvests and water supply\; India\, Indonesia or Russia bans ex ports of rice\, palm oil or wheat in the El Niño year\; World food prices climb back to 2022 levels: the FAO Food Price Index tops 150 https://stra ture.net/calendar/#card=w-0ffad0bd79 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0ffad0bd79 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-416e0fb7@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261106 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261107 SUMMARY:Signpost: End of the Q-023 six-week window for Saudi crude reaching buyers. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Poland (Gulf w ar / Hormuz) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-416E0FB7 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-416E0FB7 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-aa581854bf@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261106 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261107 SUMMARY:Signpost: Saudi crude to Poland falls to a trickle for a month: End of Q-023's six-week window for Saudi crude reaching buyers DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Saudi crude to Poland falls to a trickle for a month https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-aa581 854bf URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-aa581854bf TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-5f9455ec47@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261107 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261108 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: General election DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Wikipedia. Source: World ri sk: A Labour-led government takes office after New Zealand's 7 November el ection https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-5f9455ec47 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-5f9455ec47 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:e-cop31@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261109 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: COP31 UN climate conference\, Antalya DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: UNFCCC\, COP31 Antalya\, ht tps://unfccc.int/cop31 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=E-COP31 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=E-COP31 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:n-2026-0002-c1@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261109 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261110 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: US affiliates-rule pause ends DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Named in Strature Note N-2026-0002: China's export-control pause has 25 days to run\, with no notice yet. Sou rce: Strature\, https://strature.net/briefs/c-005/ https://strature.net/ca lendar/#card=N-2026-0002-C1 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=N-2026-0002-C1 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-02e3547e59@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261109 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261110 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: US suspension of the BIS Affiliates Rule ends unle ss renewed DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: World risk: China's export surge meets a wall of trade defence https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w- 02e3547e59 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-02e3547e59 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-064b59da28@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261109 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261110 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Chamber of Deputies debates the 2027 federal budge t (PEF)\, 9-13 Nov DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Por Esto. Source: World ri sk: Mexico's state oil sector needs federal money beyond its budget line h ttps://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-064b59da28 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-064b59da28 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-38caff646b@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261109 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261110 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: AA Ireland monthly fuel price survey DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: AA Ireland. Source: World r isk: The Irish coalition loses a Dáil confidence vote https://strature.ne t/calendar/#card=w-38caff646b URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-38caff646b TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-3e89cfcd2f@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261109 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261110 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: BIS suspension of the US Affiliates Rule ends unle ss extended (no extension in the Federal Register on 25 Oct 2026\, latest BIS document 14 Oct\; a US official reportedly said 10 Jan 2027) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Bureau of Industry and Secu rity\, Federal Register. Source: World risk: China squeezes Taiwan's sea l anes: quarantine or blockade https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-3e89cfc d2f URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-3e89cfcd2f TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-4c69cbf20f@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261109 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261110 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Affiliates Rule stay ends unless extended DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pit tman. Source: World risk: Washington re-tightens chip export controls on C hina https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4c69cbf20f URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4c69cbf20f TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-5d468243d6@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261109 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261110 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Mexico's 45-day review of Yokohama Tire ends\, if Mexico agreed (45 days from the US request\; Strature's count) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Office of the US Trade Rep resentative. Source: World risk: The US imposes the first labour-mechanism remedy on a Mexican facility https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-5d4682 43d6 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-5d468243d6 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-b755d7ea26@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261109 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261110 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Urgency starts\; the measure blocks the agenda of the house holding it DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Congresso Nacional. Source: World risk: Congress turns Brazil's ban on fixed-odds betting into law by 31 Mar 2027 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b755d7ea26 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b755d7ea26 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-b8be13ddb0@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261109 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261110 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Current suspension of USTR's maritime Section 301 action on China ends unless extended DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Office of the U.S. Trade Re presentative\, Federal Register. Source: World risk: China's export surge meets a wall of trade defence https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b8be13 ddb0 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b8be13ddb0 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:n-2026-0002-c2@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261110 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261111 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: China's October 2025 export controls return unless extended DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Named in Strature Note N-2026-0002: China's export-control pause has 25 days to run\, with no notice yet. Sou rce: Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs of China\, https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/zwgk/zcfb/art/2025/art_b1ec77dd3f0d4762952904df 7cdaadec.html https://strature.net/calendar/#card=N-2026-0002-C2 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=N-2026-0002-C2 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-11d3fcf4b1@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261110 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261111 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Governor Cook's post-hearing written statement due DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: The White House. Source: Wo rld risk: The US dollar slides 10% on the Fed's broad index https://stratu re.net/calendar/#card=w-11d3fcf4b1 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-11d3fcf4b1 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-1939698031@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261110 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261111 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: US egg price for October 2026 released DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: US BLS via FRED. Source: Wo rld risk: The CDC or WHO confirms sustained human-to-human spread of H5N1 bird flu https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-1939698031 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-1939698031 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-199068f7ad@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261110 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261111 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: US CPI for October DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statisti cs. Source: World risks: The US 10-year Treasury yield closes above 5.5%\; The Fed raises rates again by March 2027 https://strature.net/calendar/#c ard=w-199068f7ad URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-199068f7ad TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-366cf6f6c4@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261110 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261111 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: US Energy Information Admin istration. Source: World risks: The Strait of Hormuz shuts again\; The US 10-year Treasury yield closes above 5.5% https://strature.net/calendar/#ca rd=w-366cf6f6c4 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-366cf6f6c4 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-43d0e31b33@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261110 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261111 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook\, next release DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: US Energy Information Admin istration. Source: World risk: Ukrainian drones shut a main Russian oil po rt for a week or more https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-43d0e31b33 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-43d0e31b33 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-50dd0e655a@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261110 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261111 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Governor Cook's written statement after the hearin g due DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: The White House. Source: Wo rld risk: United States: the midterms and a year of policy whiplash on tra de\, the budget and the Fed https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-50dd0e65 5a URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-50dd0e655a TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-5d4fe6ca0d@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261110 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261111 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook\; US CPI for October DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: US Energy Information Admin istration. Source: World risk: US gasoline stays at or above US$3.50 a gal lon to June 2027 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-5d4fe6ca0d URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-5d4fe6ca0d TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-7e96b2216b@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261110 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261111 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Statistics Norway CPI for October DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Statistics Norway. Source: World risks: Norges Bank raises its policy rate to 4.75% or more\; The kro ne gives back its 2026 gains against the euro https://strature.net/calenda r/#card=w-7e96b2216b URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-7e96b2216b TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-820f9c55fa@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261110 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261111 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook\, November DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: US Energy Information Admin istration. Source: World risk: US natural gas (Henry Hub) averages US$5 pe r MMBtu or more in a winter month https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-82 0f9c55fa URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-820f9c55fa TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-a4e263fc9b@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261110 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261111 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Her written statement after the hearing due DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: The White House. Source: Wo rld risk: The president removes Fed Governor Lisa Cook\, and the removal h olds https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a4e263fc9b URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a4e263fc9b TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-bd2a579eb5@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261110 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261111 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: China's suspension of its October-2025 export cont rols ends unless renewed DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: World risk: China's export surge meets a wall of trade defence https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w- bd2a579eb5 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-bd2a579eb5 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-bd619b8c58@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261110 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261111 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: China's suspension of its Oct 2025 export controls ends (MOFCOM-GAC Announcement No. 70 of 2025\; no extension listed on 25 Oct 2026) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Ministry of Commerce of the PRC. Source: World risk: China squeezes Taiwan's sea lanes: quarantine or blockade https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-bd619b8c58 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-bd619b8c58 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-cd78d7cc3e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261110 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261111 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: China's suspension of its 24% extra duty on US goo ds ends unless extended DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: State Council Tariff Commis sion (HK TID circular\, official excerpt). Source: World risk: The US puts Graham Act secondary tariffs on Chinese goods over Russian oil https://st rature.net/calendar/#card=w-cd78d7cc3e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-cd78d7cc3e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-df425053-1@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261110 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261111 SUMMARY:Signpost: NISR consumer prices: 17.2% in Sep 2026. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Rwanda (Gulf w ar / Hormuz) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-DF425053-1 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-DF425053-1 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-3037fd6723@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261111 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261112 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: 24-hour general strike over housing called by CCOO and UGT DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Euronews (Spanish). Source : World risk: Spain's next government caps rents nationwide or curbs forei gn home buyers https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-3037fd6723 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-3037fd6723 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-8fe24ddfa4@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261111 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261112 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: US troops due to leave after the exercise DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: France 24. Source: World ri sk: US forces join a lethal strike on an armed group inside Colombia https ://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-8fe24ddfa4 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-8fe24ddfa4 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-d8e420e63d@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261111 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261112 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Bid deadline for HEREMA's seismic survey tender fo r western and southern Greece DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: OT (Oikonomikos Tachydromos ). Source: World risk: A Greek-Turkish standoff at sea south or east of Cr ete https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d8e420e63d URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d8e420e63d TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-1378e3f828@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261112 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261113 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Diputacion Permanente votes on RDL 28/2026 and 29/ 2026 (expected) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Moncloa.com. Source: World risk: Spain's next government caps rents nationwide or curbs foreign home buyers https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-1378e3f828 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-1378e3f828 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-18a9a994ed@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261112 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261113 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: NOAA next ENSO diagnostic discussion DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Cen ter. Source: World risk: El Niño's dry season forces the Panama Canal to cut drafts again https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-18a9a994ed URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-18a9a994ed TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-260ba18d9f@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261112 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261113 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Budget committee final session on the 2027 budget DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Deutscher Bundestag. Source : World risk: Merz's coalition breaks or faces a confidence vote https://s trature.net/calendar/#card=w-260ba18d9f URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-260ba18d9f TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-29632ddb31@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261112 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261113 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Diputacion Permanente votes on the housing decree- laws (expected) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Moncloa.com. Source: World risk: Spain has no invested Prime Minister by 31 January 2027 after the 2 9 November snap election https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-29632ddb31 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-29632ddb31 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-3b5dc557bc@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261112 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261113 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Central bank rate decision DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Trading Economics. Source: World risk: A rating agency cuts Romania below investment grade https://st rature.net/calendar/#card=w-3b5dc557bc URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-3b5dc557bc TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-40a8ca5e64@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261112 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261113 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: NOAA CPC ENSO diagnostic discussion DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Cen ter. Source: World risk: A strong El Niño through winter 2026-27 cuts har vests and water supply https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-40a8ca5e64 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-40a8ca5e64 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-43dafce562@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261112 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261113 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: NOAA ENSO discussion DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Cen ter. Source: World risks: India\, Indonesia or Russia bans exports of rice \, palm oil or wheat in the El Niño year\; World food prices climb back t o 2022 levels: the FAO Food Price Index tops 150 https://strature.net/cale ndar/#card=w-43dafce562 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-43dafce562 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-814c4b1352@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261112 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261113 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Last day to put the 2027 budget bill to the Riksda g DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Dagens PS. Source: World ri sks: No Prime Minister\, and Sweden is forced into an extra election\; Swe den's Riksdag throws out the government's 2027 budget https://strature.net /calendar/#card=w-814c4b1352 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-814c4b1352 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-fe7bdb429f@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261112 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261113 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Next NOAA ENSO diagnostic discussion DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Cen ter. Source: World risk: Indonesian fire haze returns to Singapore at unhe althy levels in 2027 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-fe7bdb429f URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-fe7bdb429f TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-651ca4f96e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261113 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261114 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Informal leaders' meeting\, Ireland DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: European Council (PDF via E unews). Source: World risk: No EU legal act funds Ukraine for 2028 by late October 2027 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-651ca4f96e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-651ca4f96e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-d1020d3bce@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261113 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261114 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Third-quarter GDP flash estimate DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Trading Economics. Source: World risk: A rating agency cuts Romania below investment grade https://st rature.net/calendar/#card=w-d1020d3bce URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d1020d3bce TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-192c34d53d@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261113 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261114 SUMMARY:Risk window: Spain has no invested Prime Minister by 31 January 202 7 after the 29 November snap election: Election campaign opens (to 27 Nov) DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, declared. Source: INAP\, La Administracion al Dia (BOE summary). Source: World risk: Spain has no invested Prime Minister b y 31 January 2027 after the 29 November snap election https://strature.net /calendar/#card=w-192c34d53d URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-192c34d53d TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-2d663bd0d6@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261115 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261116 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Deadline for 2027 nickel ore quota (RKAB) applicat ions DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: International Nickel Study Group. Source: World risk: A new sulphur squeeze cuts Indonesia's battery- nickel output https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-2d663bd0d6 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-2d663bd0d6 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-2ea8a2aba1@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261115 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261116 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: RDL 28/2026 takes effect if not voided DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: BOE no. 249. Source: World risk: Spain's next government caps rents nationwide or curbs foreign home buyers https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-2ea8a2aba1 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-2ea8a2aba1 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:n-2026-0007-c1@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261116 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261117 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: China October activity data\, 10:00 Beijing (preli minary date) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Named in Strature Note N-2026-0007 : China's growth picks up to 4.5% as spending at home stays weak. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China\, https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/ PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html https://stratur e.net/calendar/#card=N-2026-0007-C1 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=N-2026-0007-C1 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-0ae873e8fe@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261116 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261117 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: APK-N meeting (16-18 Nov) with 26.023 and related petitions DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Parlamentsdienste. Source: World risk: Swiss parliament blocks or sends back the EU treaty package ht tps://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0ae873e8fe URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0ae873e8fe TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-54d5974608@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261116 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261117 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: 49th ASEAN Summit\, Manila (16-18 Nov) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: PhilSTAR Life. Source: Worl d risk: The Canada-ASEAN trade deal misses its November 2026 target https: //strature.net/calendar/#card=w-54d5974608 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-54d5974608 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-97407b707c@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261116 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261117 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: ASEAN summit in the Philippines (16-18 Nov) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Thai Examiner. Source: Worl d risk: The US adds an excess-capacity tariff on Malaysian electronics\, m achinery or other named goods https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-97407b 707c URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-97407b707c TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-b3069a4eb0@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261116 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261117 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: European Commission merger decision due DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Brussels Signal. Source: W orld risk: Cross-border bank consolidation in Germany: a foreign bank take s control of a large German bank https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b30 69a4eb0 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b3069a4eb0 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-c887ff161c@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261116 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261117 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: ASEAN summit in the Philippines\, a possible signi ng venue (16-18 Nov) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Thai Examiner. Source: Worl d risk: The US adds an excess-capacity tariff on Thai cars\, machinery or rubber goods https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-c887ff161c URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-c887ff161c TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-e3f3530ec1@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261116 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261117 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: ASEAN summit in the Philippines (16-18 Nov)\, a ve nue for both leaders DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Thai Examiner. Source: Worl d risk: Heavy fighting resumes on the Thai-Cambodian border https://stratu re.net/calendar/#card=w-e3f3530ec1 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e3f3530ec1 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-e793c45e04@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261116 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261117 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Fortnightly review of fuel export duties DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Capital.com. Source: World risk: India caps or halts diesel and jet fuel exports to protect its home market https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e793c45e04 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e793c45e04 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-15c7541b2e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261117 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261118 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Minutes of the November meeting DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Reserve Bank of Australia. Source: World risk: The Reserve Bank of Australia lifts the cash rate to 4.85% or more by year end https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-15c7541b2e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-15c7541b2e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-3f1d416382@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261117 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261118 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Fenno-Skan flow-reversal limit starts DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Fingrid. Source: World risk : Finland cuts power to consumers for lack of electricity https://strature .net/calendar/#card=w-3f1d416382 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-3f1d416382 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-60bf302864@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261117 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261118 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: National Assembly solemn vote on the whole 2027 bu dget bill (kept by the Conference of Presidents on 27 Oct) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Assemblée nationale\, Dire ction de la Séance. Source: World risk: Cost-of-living protests bring dow n a government in a large EU economy https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w -60bf302864 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-60bf302864 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-73a1e76588@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261117 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261118 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Deadline to elect Mecklenburg-Vorpommern's Ministe r-President (four weeks after the Landtag met on 20 October) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: ZDFheute. Source: World ri sk: Europe's right turn: the RN in France\, the AfD in Germany\, Reform UK https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-73a1e76588 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-73a1e76588 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-81bd7d288f@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261117 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261118 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Solemn vote on the whole 2027 bill\; deadline for the Assembly's first reading DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Acteurs Publics. Source: Wo rld risk: The Lecornu government falls before France adopts its 2027 budge t https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-81bd7d288f URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-81bd7d288f TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-c4e4d5931a@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261117 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261118 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Joint opposition rally DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Rádio RSI (TASR). Source: World risk: Slovakia's opposition wins a seat majority at the 2027 electio n https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-c4e4d5931a URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-c4e4d5931a TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-f75998a90e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261117 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261118 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: APEC CEO Summit\, Shenzhen (17-18 Nov) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Asia-Pacific Economic Coope ration. Source: World risk: China puts a new curb on civilian trade with J apan https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-f75998a90e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-f75998a90e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-1e07a33e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261117 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261118 SUMMARY:Signpost: RBZ Monetary Policy Committee\; ZWG inflation was 3.7% in Sep 2026. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Zimbabwe (Gulf war / Hormuz) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-1E07A33E URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-1E07A33E TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:e-apec-2026@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261118 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261120 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting\, Shenzhen DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: State Council of China\, AP EC 2026\, https://english.www.gov.cn/news/202609/10/content_WS6aa2b5d7c6d0 0ca5f9a0d1fa.html https://strature.net/calendar/#card=E-APEC-2026 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=E-APEC-2026 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:n-2026-0002-c3@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261118 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261120 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: APEC leaders meet in Shenzhen DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Named in Strature Note N-2026-0002: China's export-control pause has 25 days to run\, with no notice yet. Sou rce: Strature\, https://strature.net/briefs/c-005/ https://strature.net/ca lendar/#card=N-2026-0002-C3 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=N-2026-0002-C3 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-374b84cbc1@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261118 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261119 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting\, Shenzhen (18-19 N ov) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Asia-Pacific Economic Coope ration. Source: World risk: China puts a new curb on civilian trade with J apan https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-374b84cbc1 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-374b84cbc1 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-49d97ab3a7@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261118 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261119 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: APEC leaders' meeting in China (18-19 Nov)\, withi n the US President's proposed Asian schedule DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Thai Examiner. Source: Worl d risk: The US adds an excess-capacity tariff on Malaysian electronics\, m achinery or other named goods https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-49d97a b3a7 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-49d97ab3a7 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-603d8235ee@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261118 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261119 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: APEC leaders' meeting in Shenzhen (18-19 Nov) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: APEC Secretariat. Source: W orld risk: China squeezes Taiwan's sea lanes: quarantine or blockade https ://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-603d8235ee URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-603d8235ee TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-774bf7daee@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261118 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261119 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: APEC leaders' meeting in Shenzhen\, the other poss ible venue (18-19 Nov) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: ThePrint. Source: World ris k: The US adds an excess-capacity tariff on Thai cars\, machinery or rubbe r goods https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-774bf7daee URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-774bf7daee TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-aa8378af3c@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261118 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261119 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: October CPI release DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Statistics South Africa. So urce: World risk: The Reserve Bank raises South Africa's repo rate above 7 .25% https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-aa8378af3c URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-aa8378af3c TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-c4bdcf01cb@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261118 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261119 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: APEC leaders' week in Shenzhen (18-19 Nov)\; a Xi- Takaichi meeting is sought DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Wikipedia. Source: World r isk: A Japan-China encounter at sea or in the air ends in a collision\, gu nfire or injury https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-c4bdcf01cb URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-c4bdcf01cb TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-bb511dd3@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261118 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261119 SUMMARY:Signpost: Trade statistics for October\; September's deficit was 53 6.6bn yen\, the fifth monthly deficit in a row. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Japan (Gulf wa r / Hormuz) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-BB511DD3 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-BB511DD3 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-4ab61b31de@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261119 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261120 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Bulgarian 1\,000 MW unit due back DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Economica.net. Source: Wor ld risk: Romania limits power to consumers in a supply crisis https://stra ture.net/calendar/#card=w-4ab61b31de URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4ab61b31de TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-ce1c35df58@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261119 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261120 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: MPC decision DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Bond.co.za. Source: World r isk: The Reserve Bank raises South Africa's repo rate above 7.25% https:// strature.net/calendar/#card=w-ce1c35df58 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-ce1c35df58 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:f-0074@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Our call: Will US or Israeli forces strike Iran between 22 August a nd 20 November 2026? (our call 61%) DESCRIPTION:Our call\, declared. Our call 61%. Sealed before release\; scor ed when it resolves. The brief reads the closure as the channel that reach es buyers of Gulf energy\, and a strike as an input to it: a strike change s what is listed. Source: Forecast register\, S-001 https://strature.net/c alendar/#card=F-0074 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=F-0074 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:n-2026-0003-c1@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: F-0074's window closes\, 23:59 UTC DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Named in Strature Note N-2026-0003: A container ship sinks in the Strait of Hormuz as attacks rise. Source: S trature\, https://strature.net/briefs/s-001/ https://strature.net/calendar /#card=N-2026-0003-C1 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=N-2026-0003-C1 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:n-2026-0006-c1@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: F-0074's window closes\, 23:59 UTC DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Named in Strature Note N-2026-0006: Ship attacks near Hormuz hit a wartime high\; Brent touches US$110. Sourc e: Strature\, https://strature.net/briefs/s-001/ https://strature.net/cale ndar/#card=N-2026-0006-C1 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=N-2026-0006-C1 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-98f8035aac@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Public sector finances\, October 2026 DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Office for National Statist ics. Source: World risk: The UK cuts or delays a defence or Ukraine pledge for lack of money https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-98f8035aac URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-98f8035aac TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-be8416787d@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Commission preliminary assessments to the EFC (ind icative) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: European Commission / Counc il of the EU. Source: World risk: Brussels cuts Portugal's final recovery- fund payment https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-be8416787d URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-be8416787d TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-d75d850057@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Strature forecast F-0074 (renewed strike on Iran): 61% (21 Aug 2026) resolves DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: World risk: The Strait of H ormuz shuts again https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d75d850057 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d75d850057 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-87b43ef0@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: The registered strike forecast resolves. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Egypt (Gulf wa r / Hormuz)\; Eritrea (Gulf war / Hormuz)\; Ethiopia (Gulf war / Hormuz)\; Jordan (Gulf war / Hormuz)\; and 5 more https://strature.net/calendar/#ca rd=SG-87B43EF0 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-87B43EF0 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-9abb8c94@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: The renewed-strike forecast resolves\, at the start of th e November-March rains. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Zimbabwe (Gulf war / Hormuz) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-9ABB8C94 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-9ABB8C94 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-d9cd92f7@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: The renewed-strike forecast resolves\, after planting has begun with the rains. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Mozambique (Gu lf war / Hormuz) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-D9CD92F7 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-D9CD92F7 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-fbf9505a@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: The renewed-strike forecast resolves\, in the middle of t he planting window. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Malawi (Gulf w ar / Hormuz) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-FBF9505A URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-FBF9505A TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-042155fc87@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: India caps or halts diesel and jet fuel exports to protec t its home market: Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran) resolves DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: India caps or halts di esel and jet fuel exports to protect its home market https://strature.net/ calendar/#card=w-042155fc87 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-042155fc87 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-0b1b8d078c@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: A new sulphur squeeze cuts Indonesia's battery-nickel out put: Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) (renewed strike on Iran) resolves DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: A new sulphur squeeze cuts Indonesia's battery-nickel output https://strature.net/calendar/#card =w-0b1b8d078c URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0b1b8d078c TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-0fb6e675d3@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: India tightens cooking-gas rationing again: Strature fore cast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran) reso lves DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: India tightens cooking -gas rationing again https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0fb6e675d3 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0fb6e675d3 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-0fc337768a@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: Israeli chip supply to Ireland stops for a month: F-0074 resolves (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran). Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Israeli chip supply to Ireland stops for a month https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0fc337768 a URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0fc337768a TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-0fe9dff62e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: India's war-year subsidies push its deficit above the 4.3 % target: Strature F-0074 (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran) resolves. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: India's war-year subsi dies push its deficit above the 4.3% target https://strature.net/calendar/ #card=w-0fe9dff62e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0fe9dff62e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-10812976fb@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: Bangladesh sheds 2\,000 MW of power at peak again: Stratu re forecast F-0074 resolves. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Bangladesh sheds 2\,00 0 MW of power at peak again https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-10812976 fb URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-10812976fb TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-135ed602de@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: The Egyptian pound loses a tenth of its value within thre e months: Strature forecast F-0074 resolves. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: The Egyptian pound los es a tenth of its value within three months https://strature.net/calendar/ #card=w-135ed602de URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-135ed602de TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-219e1d83fc@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: The Philippines declares a new national energy emergency over fuel: Strature forecast F-0074 resolves. Strature forecast F-0074: 61 % (21 Aug 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: The Philippines declar es a new national energy emergency over fuel https://strature.net/calendar /#card=w-219e1d83fc URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-219e1d83fc TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-34f9117717@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: Petrol stations run dry again in Vietnam's cities: F-0074 resolves. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Petrol stations run dr y again in Vietnam's cities https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-34f91177 17 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-34f9117717 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-350b7c9027@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: Japan's oil bill keeps its goods trade in deficit through March 2027: F-0074 resolves (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran). Strat ure forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Japan's oil bill keeps its goods trade in deficit through March 2027 https://strature.net/calend ar/#card=w-350b7c9027 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-350b7c9027 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-351d8b7f9e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: Saudi crude to Poland falls to a trickle for a month: F-0 074 (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran) resolves. Strature forecast F-0 074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Saudi crude to Poland falls to a trickle for a month https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-351d8 b7f9e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-351d8b7f9e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-4ad202c6d4@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: Prague caps household power or gas prices again: F-0074 r esolves (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran). Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Prague caps household power or gas prices again https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4ad202c6d4 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4ad202c6d4 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-4aeb14b181@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: Malaysia raises its subsidised RON95 petrol price to RM2. 20 a litre or more: Resolution date of Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 A ug 2026)\, a renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Malaysia raises its su bsidised RON95 petrol price to RM2.20 a litre or more https://strature.net /calendar/#card=w-4aeb14b181 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4aeb14b181 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-4cee8004c9@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: Gulf crude to the Netherlands stops for a month again: F- 0074 resolves (a renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran). Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Gulf crude to the Neth erlands stops for a month again https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4cee 8004c9 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4cee8004c9 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-4d4ad44c94@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: The US cuts off a UAE-licensed bank or exchange house ove r Iran: F-0074 resolves: renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran. Strature fo recast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: The US cuts off a UAE- licensed bank or exchange house over Iran https://strature.net/calendar/#c ard=w-4d4ad44c94 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4d4ad44c94 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-4d702e467d@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: Qatar keeps force majeure on Asian LNG past November 2026 : Strature forecast F-0074 (a renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran): 61% ( 21 Aug 2026) resolves DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Qatar keeps force maje ure on Asian LNG past November 2026 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w- 4d702e467d URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4d702e467d TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-4fe3bbe743@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: New Zealand moves to phase 4 of its fuel plan: pump limit s and priority users: Strature forecast F-0074 resolves (renewed US or Isr aeli strike on Iran). Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: New Zealand moves to p hase 4 of its fuel plan: pump limits and priority users https://strature.n et/calendar/#card=w-4fe3bbe743 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4fe3bbe743 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-509c81b3d5@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: Iran answers the IAEA's report to the Security Council by quitting the NPT: F-0074 (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran) resolves\ ; Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Iran answers the IAEA' s report to the Security Council by quitting the NPT https://strature.net/ calendar/#card=w-509c81b3d5 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-509c81b3d5 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-6102613297@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: A fuel shortfall forces rolling power cuts in Taiwan: F-0 074 resolves (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran). Strature forecast F-0 074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: A fuel shortfall force s rolling power cuts in Taiwan https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-61026 13297 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-6102613297 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-62c5a7296b@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: Indonesia sends forces on an operation under its new "Bad r" pact: Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) (renewed strike on Ir an) resolves DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Indonesia sends forces on an operation under its new "Badr" pact https://strature.net/calendar/# card=w-62c5a7296b URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-62c5a7296b TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-71502dc3ab@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: Fire from Lebanon into Israel resumes on seven or more da ys in a month: F-0074 resolves (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran). Str ature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Fire from Lebanon into Israel resumes on seven or more days in a month https://strature.net/cale ndar/#card=w-71502dc3ab URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-71502dc3ab TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-74e22b70a0@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: Italy's Qatari LNG stays cut off into spring 2027: F-0074 (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran) resolves. Strature forecast F-0074 : 61% (21 Aug 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Italy's Qatari LNG sta ys cut off into spring 2027 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-74e22b70 a0 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-74e22b70a0 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-771232610e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: Another Greek-owned or Greek-flagged ship is hit or seize d near Hormuz: Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran) resolves DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Another Greek-owned or Greek-flagged ship is hit or seized near Hormuz https://strature.net/cale ndar/#card=w-771232610e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-771232610e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-796195c5d9@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: A cyberattack halts a UAE port\, airport or energy site f or a day: Strature F-0074 (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran) resolves. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: A cyberattack halts a UAE port\, airport or energy site for a day https://strature.net/calendar/ #card=w-796195c5d9 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-796195c5d9 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-7a2a60712f@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: A helium shortfall forces chip output cuts in Taiwan or S outh Korea: Strature forecast F-0074 (a renewed US or Israeli strike on Ir an): 61% (21 Aug 2026) resolves DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: A helium shortfall for ces chip output cuts in Taiwan or South Korea https://strature.net/calenda r/#card=w-7a2a60712f URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-7a2a60712f TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-7ec21dfe07@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: A Houthi attack hits Egypt or Egyptian forces: Strature f orecast F-0074 resolves. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: A Houthi attack hits E gypt or Egyptian forces https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-7ec21dfe07 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-7ec21dfe07 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-83a3fcc037@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: Free of OPEC\, the UAE pumps above 4 mb/d for a quarter: F-0074 resolves: renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran. Strature forecast F -0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Free of OPEC\, the UAE pumps above 4 mb/d for a quarter https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-83 a3fcc037 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-83a3fcc037 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-85a971bcee@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: A Houthi strike cuts power or water to a Saudi city for t wo days: F-0074 resolves: renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran. Strature f orecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: A Houthi strike cuts p ower or water to a Saudi city for two days https://strature.net/calendar/# card=w-85a971bcee URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-85a971bcee TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-90f39b3be7@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: Norges Bank raises its policy rate to 4.75% or more: Stra ture F-0074 resolves. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Norges Bank raises its policy rate to 4.75% or more https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-90f39b 3be7 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-90f39b3be7 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-95c274006f@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: Saudi barrels return and Brent falls below US$70: F-0074 resolves: renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Saudi barrels return a nd Brent falls below US$70 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-95c274006 f URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-95c274006f TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-978b6e1fa7@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: An Iran-linked attack stops Israeli chip fabs for a week: F-0074 resolves (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran)\; Strature forecas t F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: An Iran-linked attack stops Israeli chip fabs for a week https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9 78b6e1fa7 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-978b6e1fa7 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-b1855af922@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: An Iranian strike halts a UAE port\, plant or airport: F- 0074 resolves: renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran. Strature forecast F-0 074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: An Iranian strike halt s a UAE port\, plant or airport https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b185 5af922 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b1855af922 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-b6bd6499e6@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: Egypt cuts gas to its fertiliser plants for two weeks: St rature forecast F-0074 resolves. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 202 6) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Egypt cuts gas to its fertiliser plants for two weeks https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b6bd 6499e6 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b6bd6499e6 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-b76e3e876e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: Zeebrugge goes a winter quarter without Qatari or Russian LNG: F-0074 (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran) resolves. Strature for ecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Zeebrugge goes a winte r quarter without Qatari or Russian LNG https://strature.net/calendar/#car d=w-b76e3e876e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b76e3e876e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-cc1d437e75@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: The krone gives back its 2026 gains against the euro: Str ature F-0074 resolves. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: The krone gives back i ts 2026 gains against the euro https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-cc1d4 37e75 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-cc1d437e75 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-e136ede22f@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: Pakistan's petrol or diesel stocks fall below 10 days: St rature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran) resolves DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Pakistan's petrol or d iesel stocks fall below 10 days https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e136 ede22f URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e136ede22f TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-e4c358a4b4@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: Thailand's state-managed diesel price reaches 50 baht a l itre: F-0074 (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran) resolves. Strature for ecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Thailand's state-manag ed diesel price reaches 50 baht a litre https://strature.net/calendar/#car d=w-e4c358a4b4 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e4c358a4b4 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-eb10cdb57a@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Signpost: The Red Sea stays closed to most shipping: Houthi attacks \, Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal: Strature forecast F-0074 (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran): 61% (21 Aug 2026) resolves DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: The Red Sea stays clos ed to most shipping: Houthi attacks\, Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal htt ps://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-eb10cdb57a URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-eb10cdb57a TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-83506bc38c@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261122 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261123 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Mexico's 45-day review of GLM Components ends\, if Mexico agreed (45 days from the US request\; Strature's count) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Office of the US Trade Rep resentative. Source: World risk: The US imposes the first labour-mechanism remedy on a Mexican facility https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-83506b c38c URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-83506bc38c TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-d252692e94@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261123 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261124 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: First 60-day term ends\; it runs a further 60 days if Congress has not voted DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Presidência da República (Planalto). Source: World risk: Congress turns Brazil's ban on fixed-odds betting into law by 31 Mar 2027 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d252 692e94 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d252692e94 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-420780ec0a@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261124 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261125 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Final vote on the 2027 budget (Chega seeks a VAT c ut on fuel) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Euronews. Source: World ris k: Jet fuel limits hit a Portuguese airport https://strature.net/calendar/ #card=w-420780ec0a URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-420780ec0a TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-4a271572ed@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261124 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261125 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Final vote on Portugal's 2027 budget DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Euronews. Source: World ris k: Brussels cuts Portugal's final recovery-fund payment https://strature.n et/calendar/#card=w-4a271572ed URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4a271572ed TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-8226a83486@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261124 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261125 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Final vote on the 2027 budget DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Euronews. Source: World ris k: Portugal's minority government falls https://strature.net/calendar/#car d=w-8226a83486 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-8226a83486 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-ca119f9e5b@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261124 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261125 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Pakistan's airspace ban on Indian aircraft runs to this date unless extended (PAA NOTAM A0590\, as reported) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: ProPakistani. Source: World risk: India and Pakistan strike each other's territory again https://stra ture.net/calendar/#card=w-ca119f9e5b URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-ca119f9e5b TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-4aa2a94445@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261124 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261125 SUMMARY:Risk window: Bangladesh leaves the LDC group on 24 Nov 2026 without an extension: Scheduled graduation date (resolution 76/8) DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, declared. Source: UN LDC Portal (UN-OHRLLS). Sour ce: World risk: Bangladesh leaves the LDC group on 24 Nov 2026 without an extension https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4aa2a94445 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4aa2a94445 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-3daf340006@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261125 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261126 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Ofgem announces the cap for 1 Jan-31 Mar 2027 (as reported\, low-confidence source) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: AZAT TV. Source: World ris k: UK household energy price cap jumps 10% or more in January or April 202 7 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-3daf340006 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-3daf340006 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-f153679dc0@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261125 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261126 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: GDP second estimate\, Q3 2026 DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: US Bureau of Economic Analy sis. Source: World risk: US growth stalls below 1% for two quarters in a r ow https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-f153679dc0 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-f153679dc0 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-17c8397965@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261126 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261127 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: EU leaders' special summit on Ukraine's financing\ , 26-27 Nov DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Daily News Hungary. Source : World risk: A rating agency cuts Hungary below investment grade https:// strature.net/calendar/#card=w-17c8397965 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-17c8397965 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-38cb8c92ec@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261126 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261127 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Special European Council on the MFF\, 26-27 Nov (t bc)\; Ukraine 2027 funding DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: European Council (PDF via Eunews). Source: World risk: No EU legal act funds Ukraine for 2028 by lat e October 2027 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-38cb8c92ec URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-38cb8c92ec TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-4dd2479992@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261126 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261127 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Extraordinary European Council on the 2028-2034 bu dget (26-27 Nov\; reported) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: EU Alive. Source: World ri sk: The EU moves to delay its carbon price on fuel and heating a second ti me https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4dd2479992 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4dd2479992 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-a7c1eb962a@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261126 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261127 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Special European Council on the MFF and Ukraine fu nding (26-27 Nov) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: European Pravda. Source: W orld risk: The EU puts the principal of Russia's immobilised reserves to u se https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a7c1eb962a URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a7c1eb962a TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-a82373a755@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261126 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261127 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Extraordinary European Council on the MFF\, 26-27 Nov (draft agenda not confirmed) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Eunews. Source: World risk : EU leaders miss the deadline for the 2028-2034 budget https://strature.n et/calendar/#card=w-a82373a755 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a82373a755 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-03c936e6e2@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261126 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261127 SUMMARY:Risk window: The Bank of Korea raises its rate to 3.25% by year end : Monetary Policy Board rate decision\, last of 2026 DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, declared. Source: The Korea Times. Source: World risk: The Bank of Korea raises its rate to 3.25% by year end https://strat ure.net/calendar/#card=w-03c936e6e2 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-03c936e6e2 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:n-2026-0002-c4@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261127 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261128 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: China's gallium\, germanium and antimony suspensio n ends DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Named in Strature Note N-2026-0002: China's export-control pause has 25 days to run\, with no notice yet. Sou rce: Ministry of Commerce of China\, https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/zwgk/zcfb/a rt/2025/art_5c68985a6b1a46778e2e8dbff1bb1601.html https://strature.net/cal endar/#card=N-2026-0002-C4 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=N-2026-0002-C4 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-33457990d3@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261127 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261128 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Last day for parties' budget motions (reported) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: TV4 Nyheterna. Source: Wor ld risk: Sweden's Riksdag throws out the government's 2027 budget https:// strature.net/calendar/#card=w-33457990d3 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-33457990d3 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-3f59bf0ed8@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261127 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261128 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Mexico's 45-day review of Carolina Performance Fab rics ends\, if Mexico agreed (45 days from the US request\; Strature's cou nt) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Office of the US Trade Rep resentative. Source: World risk: The US imposes the first labour-mechanism remedy on a Mexican facility https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-3f59bf 0ed8 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-3f59bf0ed8 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-5b8f468c0e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261127 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261128 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Official results declared DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Wikipedia. Source: World ri sk: A Labour-led government takes office after New Zealand's 7 November el ection https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-5b8f468c0e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-5b8f468c0e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-5d699ddb22@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261127 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261128 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Bundestag final vote on the 2027 budget DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Deutscher Bundestag. Source : World risks: Merz's coalition breaks or faces a confidence vote\; German y's pension reform misses its new spring target https://strature.net/calen dar/#card=w-5d699ddb22 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-5d699ddb22 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-c6b5b637ab@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261127 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261128 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: S&P review of France's rating DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Selectra. Source: World ris k: Europe's right turn: the RN in France\, the AfD in Germany\, Reform UK https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-c6b5b637ab URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-c6b5b637ab TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-fe5c27780e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261127 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261128 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: S&P review of France DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Selectra. Source: World ris k: The Lecornu government falls before France adopts its 2027 budget https ://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-fe5c27780e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-fe5c27780e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:e-twn-local@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261128 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261129 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Taiwan local elections DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Central Election Commission \, 2026 polling day and schedule (Chinese)\, https://web.cec.gov.tw/centra l/article/61722 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=E-TWN-LOCAL URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=E-TWN-LOCAL TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-538529f85a@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261128 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261129 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Taiwan's local elections DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Focus Taiwan (CNA). Source: World risk: China squeezes Taiwan's sea lanes: quarantine or blockade htt ps://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-538529f85a URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-538529f85a TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-620a6a7329@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261128 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261129 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Local elections\, 22 mayor and county posts DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Central News Agency. Source : World risk: Will the KMT win 13 or more of Taiwan's 22 mayor and county posts on 28 Nov? https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-620a6a7329 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-620a6a7329 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-ce06819e09@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261128 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261129 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Local elections DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Central News Agency. Source : World risk: Taiwan's legislature cuts the record supplementary budget by more than a tenth\, or lets it lapse https://strature.net/calendar/#card= w-ce06819e09 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-ce06819e09 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:e-esp-general@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261129 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261130 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Spain: snap general election DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Official State Gazette (BOE )\, Royal Decree 806/2026\, https://www.boe.es/diario_boe/txt.php?id=BOE-A -2026-20742 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=E-ESP-GENERAL URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=E-ESP-GENERAL TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-55d847047e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261129 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261130 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Spanish general election DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Boletín Oficial del Estado . Source: World risks: Cost-of-living protests bring down a government in a large EU economy\; Spain and Italy bring back border checks on each othe r https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-55d847047e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-55d847047e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-5e9e8c868a@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261129 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261130 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Same-day votes on VAT for the AHV\, the Fireworks Initiative and the Fairness Initiative DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: blue News (YouGov Switzerla nd). Source: World risk: Will Swiss voters approve the looser War Material Act on 29 Nov 2026? https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-5e9e8c868a URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-5e9e8c868a TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-8c5ee63f83@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261129 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261130 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Referendum vote on the War Material Act amendment DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Swiss Federal Council (admi n.ch). Source: World risk: Will Swiss voters approve the looser War Materi al Act on 29 Nov 2026? https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-8c5ee63f83 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-8c5ee63f83 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-bf6b763403@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261129 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261130 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: General election DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: INAP\, La Administracion al Dia (BOE summary). Source: World risks: Spain has no invested Prime Minis ter by 31 January 2027 after the 29 November snap election\; Spain's fuel tax relief runs out in the gap between governments\; Spain's next governme nt caps rents nationwide or curbs foreign home buyers https://strature.net /calendar/#card=w-bf6b763403 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-bf6b763403 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-f74f189a34@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261129 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261130 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: General election\; border policy on the ballot DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: INAP\, La Administracion al Dia. Source: World risk: Another mass crossing into Ceuta or Melilla http s://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-f74f189a34 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-f74f189a34 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-92afd0629f@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261129 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261130 SUMMARY:Risk window: The US adds a second Section 301 tariff on most Vietna mese goods: Six-month deadline for the IP determination DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, declared. Source: USTR\, Federal Register. Source : World risk: The US adds a second Section 301 tariff on most Vietnamese g oods https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-92afd0629f URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-92afd0629f TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-0ba8446646@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261130 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261201 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Finance committee's budget recommendation due DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Stortinget. Source: World r isk: Norway's Labour minority government falls https://strature.net/calend ar/#card=w-0ba8446646 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0ba8446646 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-46a5e4a9cc@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261130 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261201 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Force majeure for Asian buyers lapses unless exten ded DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: OilPrice.com. Source: World risk: Qatar keeps force majeure on Asian LNG past November 2026 https://s trature.net/calendar/#card=w-46a5e4a9cc URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-46a5e4a9cc TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-6a21b0cd90@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261130 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261201 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: QatarEnergy force majeure on Asian and European de liveries runs to this date DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: OilPrice.com. Source: World risk: Italy's Qatari LNG stays cut off into spring 2027 https://strature. net/calendar/#card=w-6a21b0cd90 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-6a21b0cd90 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-7a39cb4cb2@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261130 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261201 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: QatarEnergy force majeure on LNG runs to this date DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: OilPrice.com. Source: World risk: Urea prices return to crisis levels for the 2027 spring planting ht tps://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-7a39cb4cb2 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-7a39cb4cb2 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-880b9db91c@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261130 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261201 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: QatarEnergy force majeure notice runs to end of No vember DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: OilPrice.com. Source: Worl d risk: Bangladesh sheds 2\,000 MW of power at peak again https://strature .net/calendar/#card=w-880b9db91c URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-880b9db91c TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-aa4a43b200@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261130 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261201 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: QatarEnergy force majeure on deliveries to Asian b uyers runs to this date\; for Edison (Italy) it runs to early December DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: OilPrice.com. Source: World risk: A winter LNG crunch forces gas rationing in Europe\, Japan or South Korea https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-aa4a43b200 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-aa4a43b200 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-b8c32cb9fd@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261130 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261201 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: QatarEnergy force majeure for Asian and European b uyers runs to this date (press report) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: OilPrice.com. Source: Worl d risk: A fuel shortfall forces rolling power cuts in Taiwan https://strat ure.net/calendar/#card=w-b8c32cb9fd URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b8c32cb9fd TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-ce1aaa8ebd@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261130 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261201 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: QatarEnergy force majeure runs to the end of Novem ber (reported) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: OilPrice.com. Source: Worl d risk: The EU delays its ban on Russian gas because of the Gulf shock htt ps://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-ce1aaa8ebd URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-ce1aaa8ebd TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-d0fd206725@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261130 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261201 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Qatari LNG force majeure for Asian buyers lapses u nless extended DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: OilPrice.com. Source: World risk: A helium shortfall forces chip output cuts in Taiwan or South Korea https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d0fd206725 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d0fd206725 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-d1aacd394d@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261130 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261201 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Spence supervisors' contract ends DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Diario Financiero. Source: World risk: A strike cuts output at a large Chilean copper mine for a wee k or more https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d1aacd394d URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d1aacd394d TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-ef55d557a7@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261130 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261201 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Energy crisis state ends unless extended again DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Economica.net. Source: Worl d risk: Romania limits power to consumers in a supply crisis https://strat ure.net/calendar/#card=w-ef55d557a7 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-ef55d557a7 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-f10e1dc415@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261130 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261201 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: CGA accounts for April-October 2026 DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Controller General of Acco unts. Source: World risk: India's war-year subsidies push its deficit abov e the 4.3% target https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-f10e1dc415 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-f10e1dc415 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-f3497ad4a2@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261130 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261201 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Commission's opinion on Italy's draft budgetary pl an (by) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Il Sole 24 Ore. Source: Wor ld risk: Italy's 2026 deficit misses 3% and the EU procedure stays open ht tps://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-f3497ad4a2 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-f3497ad4a2 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-fb7ed628fd@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261130 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261201 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Premier's target for third reading DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: United Daily News (CNA). So urce: World risk: Taiwan's legislature cuts the record supplementary budge t by more than a tenth\, or lets it lapse https://strature.net/calendar/#c ard=w-fb7ed628fd URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-fb7ed628fd TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-a0ce978c50@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261130 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261201 SUMMARY:Risk window: The Canada-ASEAN trade deal misses its November 2026 t arget: Window ends DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, declared. Source: World risk: The Canada-ASEAN tr ade deal misses its November 2026 target https://strature.net/calendar/#ca rd=w-a0ce978c50 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a0ce978c50 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-1b1902c4a5@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261201 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261202 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: End of the EU window for the 90% storage target DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: European Commission. Source : World risk: A winter LNG crunch forces gas rationing in Europe\, Japan o r South Korea https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-1b1902c4a5 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-1b1902c4a5 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-8a9905a5d1@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261201 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261202 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Hybrid cap to start\, if EU procedures finish DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: electrive. Source: World r isk: The EU-China hybrid cap fails and the EU puts duties on Chinese hybri ds https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-8a9905a5d1 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-8a9905a5d1 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-c71153c90b@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261201 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261202 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: EU cap of 350\,000 Chinese hybrids and plug-in hyb rids a year starts\, if EU procedures finish DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: electrive. Source: World r isk: China's export surge meets a wall of trade defence https://strature.n et/calendar/#card=w-c71153c90b URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-c71153c90b TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-f72090eca4@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261201 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261202 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Latest sailing date for India's 1.7 Mt urea tender (moved from 15 Dec) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Fertilizer Daily. Source: W orld risk: Urea prices return to crisis levels for the 2027 spring plantin g https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-f72090eca4 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-f72090eca4 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-12a6cfb644@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261202 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261203 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: December adjustment\; levy cut falls to R1.50/l DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: EWN. Source: World risk: S outh Africa's regulated diesel price reaches R35 a litre https://strature. net/calendar/#card=w-12a6cfb644 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-12a6cfb644 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-c6168b9f3a@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261203 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261204 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Return of the writs DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Wikipedia. Source: World ri sk: A Labour-led government takes office after New Zealand's 7 November el ection https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-c6168b9f3a URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-c6168b9f3a TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:n-2026-0003-c2@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261204 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261205 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: F-0073 and F-0074 scored DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Named in Strature Note N-2026-0003: A container ship sinks in the Strait of Hormuz as attacks rise. Source: S trature\, https://strature.net/briefs/s-001/ https://strature.net/calendar /#card=N-2026-0003-C2 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=N-2026-0003-C2 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:n-2026-0006-c2@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261204 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261205 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: F-0074 scored DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Named in Strature Note N-2026-0006: Ship attacks near Hormuz hit a wartime high\; Brent touches US$110. Sourc e: Strature\, https://strature.net/briefs/s-001/ https://strature.net/cale ndar/#card=N-2026-0006-C2 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=N-2026-0006-C2 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-11f618fec1@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261204 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261205 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Statistics Canada 2026 crop estimates DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Statistics Canada. Source: World risk: World food prices climb back to 2022 levels: the FAO Food Pric e Index tops 150 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-11f618fec1 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-11f618fec1 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-1c1bb2a5df@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261204 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261205 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Statistics Canada survey-based 2026 crop estimates DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Statistics Canada. Source: World risk: A strong El Niño through winter 2026-27 cuts harvests and wat er supply https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-1c1bb2a5df URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-1c1bb2a5df TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-9fc5450a48@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261204 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261205 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Scope Ratings calendar date (not a scored agency) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: State Treasury of Finland. Source: World risk: A rating agency cuts Finland's credit rating again htt ps://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9fc5450a48 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9fc5450a48 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-adbeb51214@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261204 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261205 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Section 232 polysilicon duty starts\, Taiwan's tot al set at 15% DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Federal Register. Source: W orld risk: The US widens its Section 232 chip tariff from a short list to most chips https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-adbeb51214 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-adbeb51214 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:e-fomc-2026-12@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261208 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261210 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: US Federal Reserve: FOMC meeting with economic pro jections DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Federal Reserve\, FOMC cale ndar\, https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm htt ps://strature.net/calendar/#card=E-FOMC-2026-12 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=E-FOMC-2026-12 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:e-statcan-trade-2026-12@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261208 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261209 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Canadian international merchandise trade\, October data DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Statistics Canada\, 2026-20 27 major release dates\, https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/release-diffusion /2026-eng.pdf https://strature.net/calendar/#card=E-STATCAN-TRADE-2026-12 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=E-STATCAN-TRADE-2026-12 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-15e4c62a2f@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261208 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261209 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: FOMC meeting (8-9 Dec)\; her lawyers offer a date after it DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Federal Open Market Commit tee. Source: World risk: The president removes Fed Governor Lisa Cook\, an d the removal holds https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-15e4c62a2f URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-15e4c62a2f TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-49114329ab@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261208 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261209 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: RBA Monetary Policy Board decision (meeting 7-8 De c) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Reserve Bank of Australia. Source: World risk: The Reserve Bank of Australia lifts the cash rate to 4 .85% or more by year end https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-49114329ab URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-49114329ab TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-5aa24af5d2@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261208 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261209 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: EFC opinion on the preliminary assessments (indica tive) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: European Commission / Counc il of the EU. Source: World risk: Brussels cuts Portugal's final recovery- fund payment https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-5aa24af5d2 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-5aa24af5d2 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-8a7b3c2375@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261208 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261209 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Statistics Canada October 2026 trade release: the F-0215 data test (the August-October 2026 EU share of Canadian goods expor ts must be published for F-0215 to resolve). Strature forecast F-0215: 12. 9% (4 Oct 2026) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: World risk: The Canada-EU summit delivers none of its drafted deals by 31 Dec 2026 https://strature. net/calendar/#card=w-8a7b3c2375 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-8a7b3c2375 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-cff6f6f033@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261208 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261209 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: FOMC meeting with projections (8-9 Dec) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Board of Governors of the F ederal Reserve System. Source: World risks: US growth stalls below 1% for two quarters in a row\; The US Treasury market seizes and the Fed buys bon ds to restore it https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-cff6f6f033 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-cff6f6f033 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-04a08cea-2@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261208 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261209 SUMMARY:Signpost: Canadian trade data for September and October\, the first full months under the new US duty. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Peru (US tarif fs and Canada) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-04A08CEA-2 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-04A08CEA-2 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-28e9c073-2@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261208 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261209 SUMMARY:Signpost: Statistics Canada trade data for September and October\, the first full months under the 50% US duty on listed Canadian goods in fo rce since 22 Aug 2026. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Turkey (US tar iffs and Canada) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-28E9C073-2 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-28E9C073-2 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-2fbd0611-2@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261208 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261209 SUMMARY:Signpost: US trade data for the first months under the 50% US duty on listed Canadian goods: do US buyers switch origin? DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Brazil (US tar iffs and Canada) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-2FBD0611-2 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-2FBD0611-2 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-31cc1ed8-2@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261208 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261209 SUMMARY:Signpost: Canadian import data by origin\, monthly releases. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Cambodia (US t ariffs and Canada)\; Sri Lanka (US tariffs and Canada) https://strature.ne t/calendar/#card=SG-31CC1ED8-2 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-31CC1ED8-2 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-5c597792-2@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261208 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261209 SUMMARY:Signpost: US trade data for Sep and Oct 2026: the first full months after the 50% duty on listed Canadian goods that can show US buyers movin g to Mexican supply. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Mexico (US tar iffs and Canada) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-5C597792-2 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-5C597792-2 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-6ee17cd7@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261208 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261209 SUMMARY:Signpost: The next month's trade data: Q-022's confirmation point. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Canada (US tar iffs and Canada) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-6EE17CD7 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-6EE17CD7 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-87dafc4f-2@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261208 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261209 SUMMARY:Signpost: Canadian trade data for September and October\, early mon ths under the new US duty. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Republic of Ko rea (US tariffs and Canada) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-87DAFC4 F-2 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-87DAFC4F-2 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-8963ebb2-2@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261208 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261209 SUMMARY:Signpost: US trade releases for Sep and Oct 2026: imports of listed Canadian goods in the first full months under the duty. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: United States of America (US tariffs and Canada) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG- 8963EBB2-2 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-8963EBB2-2 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-b88aa2fb-2@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261208 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261209 SUMMARY:Signpost: Canadian trade data for September and October\, the first full months under the 50% US duty on listed Canadian goods from 19 Aug 20 26. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Algeria (US ta riffs and Canada) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-B88AA2FB-2 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-B88AA2FB-2 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-c90af6f5-2@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261208 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261209 SUMMARY:Signpost: Canadian trade data for September and October\, early mon ths under the US duty on listed Canadian goods in force since 22 Aug 2026. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Japan (US tari ffs and Canada)\; Vietnam (US tariffs and Canada) https://strature.net/cal endar/#card=SG-C90AF6F5-2 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-C90AF6F5-2 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-575b2c9211@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261208 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261209 SUMMARY:Signpost: United States: the midterms and a year of policy whiplash on trade\, the budget and the Fed: Canada trade data release confirms Q-0 22 DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: United States: the mid terms and a year of policy whiplash on trade\, the budget and the Fed http s://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-575b2c9211 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-575b2c9211 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-815d6ec256@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261208 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261209 SUMMARY:Signpost: The US tariff wall around Canada and Mexico stays up or g rows: Trade data confirming the Q-022 reading DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: The US tariff wall aro und Canada and Mexico stays up or grows https://strature.net/calendar/#car d=w-815d6ec256 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-815d6ec256 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:e-boc-2026-12@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261209 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261210 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Bank of Canada rate announcement DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Bank of Canada\, 2026 sched ule\, https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/08/bank-canada-publishes-2026-sched ule-policy-interest-rate-announcements-other-major-publications/ https://s trature.net/calendar/#card=E-BOC-2026-12 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=E-BOC-2026-12 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-15431e707e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261209 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261210 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: FOMC decision with projections (8-9 Dec) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Board of Governors of the F ederal Reserve System. Source: World risks: A G7 bond rout forces a centra l bank to buy government bonds\; The US 10-year Treasury yield closes abov e 5.5%\; The Fed raises rates again by March 2027 https://strature.net/cal endar/#card=w-15431e707e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-15431e707e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-1f8ba72cf3@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261209 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261210 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: FOMC decision (8-9 Dec) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Board of Governors of the F ederal Reserve System. Source: World risk: The Hong Kong dollar hits the w eak end of its band and the HKMA buys it https://strature.net/calendar/#ca rd=w-1f8ba72cf3 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-1f8ba72cf3 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-2b99b3764b@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261209 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261210 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Bank of Canada decision DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Bank of Canada. Source: Wor ld risk: Canada's real GDP falls for two quarters in a row by the fourth q uarter of 2027 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-2b99b3764b URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-2b99b3764b TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-30d67e1289@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261209 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261210 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Monetary Policy Statement and OCR decision (date a s reported) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: OrbitRemit. Source: World risk: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lifts the OCR to 3.50% or more https ://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-30d67e1289 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-30d67e1289 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-38f5efc315@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261209 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261210 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Riksdag vote on the 2027 budget framework (reporte d) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: TV4 Nyheterna. Source: Wor ld risk: No Prime Minister\, and Sweden is forced into an extra election h ttps://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-38f5efc315 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-38f5efc315 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-714b802181@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261209 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261210 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: FOMC decision with projections\; Bank of Canada de cision DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Board of Governors of the F ederal Reserve System. Source: World risk: The US dollar slides 10% on the Fed's broad index https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-714b802181 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-714b802181 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-a3195dcafe@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261209 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261210 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Bank of Canada rate decision DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Bank of Canada. Source: Wor ld risk: The US 10-year Treasury yield closes above 5.5% https://strature. net/calendar/#card=w-a3195dcafe URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a3195dcafe TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-f1a845c3c3@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261209 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261210 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Riksdag vote on the 2027 budget frame (reported) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: TV4 Nyheterna. Source: Wor ld risks: Sweden Democrats take seats in the cabinet\; Sweden's Riksdag th rows out the government's 2027 budget https://strature.net/calendar/#card= w-f1a845c3c3 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-f1a845c3c3 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-fc2e0a745d@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261209 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261210 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: FOMC decision with projections (meeting 8-9 Dec) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Federal Open Market Committ ee. Source: World risk: United States: the midterms and a year of policy w hiplash on trade\, the budget and the Fed https://strature.net/calendar/#c ard=w-fc2e0a745d URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-fc2e0a745d TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-70a74ccece@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261210 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261211 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Last MPC meeting of 2026 DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Bloomberg HT. Source: World risk: Türkiye's central bank has to raise its policy rate again within 1 2 months https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-70a74ccece URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-70a74ccece TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-df425053-2@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261210 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261211 SUMMARY:Signpost: NISR consumer prices: 17.2% in Sep 2026. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Rwanda (Gulf w ar / Hormuz) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-DF425053-2 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-DF425053-2 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-4ee71fed61@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261211 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261212 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Stopgap funding ends\; a vehicle for limit languag e DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: The White House. Source: Wo rld risk: A US debt-limit standoff with Treasury's cash projected to run o ut within three months https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4ee71fed61 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4ee71fed61 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-677811994e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261211 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261212 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Stopgap funding ends DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: The White House. Source: Wo rld risks: United States: the midterms and a year of policy whiplash on tr ade\, the budget and the Fed\; US federal agencies shut for a week or more when the stopgap runs out on 11 December https://strature.net/calendar/#c ard=w-677811994e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-677811994e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-876e3686bb@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261211 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261212 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: General Council (reform\, MC14 follow-up)\, contin ues 14 Dec DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: World Trade Organization. Source: World risk: The WTO adopts no reform of dispute settlement or deci sion-making by 25 Oct 2027 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-876e3686b b URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-876e3686bb TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-b6ac6da923@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261211 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261212 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Moody's calendar date for Finland DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: State Treasury of Finland. Source: World risk: A rating agency cuts Finland's credit rating again htt ps://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b6ac6da923 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b6ac6da923 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-57103991c8@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261212 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261213 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Funding gap begins without new law DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Congressional Research Serv ice. Source: World risk: US federal agencies shut for a week or more when the stopgap runs out on 11 December https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w- 57103991c8 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-57103991c8 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-e277ac6827@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261212 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261213 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Extraordinary Diet session ends DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: House of Representatives. S ource: World risk: The Diet enacts a consumption-tax cut https://strature. net/calendar/#card=w-e277ac6827 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e277ac6827 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:e-g20-2026@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261214 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261216 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: G20 leaders' summit\, Doral (Miami) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: US Treasury\, G20 2026 anno uncement\, https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0398 https://st rature.net/calendar/#card=E-G20-2026 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=E-G20-2026 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-b6d140512c@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261214 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261215 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: FMC comment deadline on proposed measures against Spain DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Brussels Signal. Source: Wo rld risk: The US singles out Austria over its neutrality https://strature. net/calendar/#card=w-b6d140512c URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b6d140512c TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-16f12740f8@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261215 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261216 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Monetary policy meeting DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: BioBioChile. Source: World risk: Chile's central bank raises its policy rate above 4.5% https://strat ure.net/calendar/#card=w-16f12740f8 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-16f12740f8 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-919bb2e67b@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261215 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261216 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Central bank's next monetary policy meeting DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: BioBioChile. Source: World risk: Diesel in Santiago reaches 1\,800 pesos a litre https://strature.net /calendar/#card=w-919bb2e67b URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-919bb2e67b TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-4a3123c110@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261217 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261218 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: European Council\, 17-18 Dec (Ukraine on the agend a of each meeting) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: European Council (PDF via E unews). Source: World risk: Drone strikes on merchant ships off Bulgaria a nd Romania https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4a3123c110 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4a3123c110 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-5525d8db3d@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261217 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261218 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: European Council\, 17-18 Dec (MFF) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: European Council (PDF via E unews). Source: World risk: No EU legal act funds Ukraine for 2028 by late October 2027 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-5525d8db3d URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-5525d8db3d TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-ad55f6ca17@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261217 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261218 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: ECB monetary policy meeting\, day 2 DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: European Central Bank. Sour ce: World risk: The ECB raises rates a third time on energy inflation http s://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-ad55f6ca17 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-ad55f6ca17 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-b6172a0c09@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261217 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261218 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Decision and Monetary Policy Report 4/2026 DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Norges Bank. Source: World risk: Norges Bank raises its policy rate to 4.75% or more https://strature .net/calendar/#card=w-b6172a0c09 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b6172a0c09 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-bca5e586cc@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261217 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261218 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: MPC decision DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Bank of England. Source: Wo rld risks: The Bank of England raises rates on energy inflation\; The 30-y ear gilt yield closes above 6% https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-bca5e 586cc URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-bca5e586cc TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-c30217c202@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261217 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261218 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Norges Bank decision and Monetary Policy Report 4/ 2026 DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Norges Bank. Source: World risk: The krone gives back its 2026 gains against the euro https://stratur e.net/calendar/#card=w-c30217c202 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-c30217c202 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-e7bc4d1262@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261217 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261218 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Bank of England MPC decision DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Bank of England. Source: Wo rld risk: A G7 bond rout forces a central bank to buy government bonds htt ps://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e7bc4d1262 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e7bc4d1262 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-17d7dcef0b@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261217 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261218 SUMMARY:Risk window: The Czech central bank lifts its main rate to 4.25% or higher: CNB monetary policy meeting DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, declared. Source: Czech National Bank. Source: Wo rld risk: The Czech central bank lifts its main rate to 4.25% or higher ht tps://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-17d7dcef0b URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-17d7dcef0b TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-56de9907c7@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261218 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261219 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Italy's checks on the Slovenian border end unless renewed DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: European Commission\, DG Mi gration and Home Affairs. Source: World risk: Spain and Italy bring back b order checks on each other https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-56de9907c 7 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-56de9907c7 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-81529fa104@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261218 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261219 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Last Bundestag sitting day of 2026 DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Deutscher Bundestag. Source : World risk: Germany's pension reform misses its new spring target https: //strature.net/calendar/#card=w-81529fa104 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-81529fa104 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-9a9148f233@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261218 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261219 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Commission payment decisions (indicative) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: European Commission / Counc il of the EU. Source: World risk: Brussels cuts Portugal's final recovery- fund payment https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9a9148f233 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9a9148f233 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-aad2526d86@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261218 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261219 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Bank of Russia key rate meeting DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Bank of Russia. Source: Wor ld risks: Russia's war reaches NATO's eastern flank\; Russia raises taxes again\, beyond its 2027 budget package\, to cover a record deficit https:/ /strature.net/calendar/#card=w-aad2526d86 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-aad2526d86 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-d916ddbe62@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261218 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261219 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Deadline for diplomas to the elected (TSE calendar \, relayed) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Poder360. Source: World ri sk: Brazil after the vote: a contested result or a fiscal break https://st rature.net/calendar/#card=w-d916ddbe62 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d916ddbe62 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-508ca3b7b5@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261223 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261224 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: GDP third estimate\, Q3 2026 DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: US Bureau of Economic Analy sis. Source: World risk: US growth stalls below 1% for two quarters in a r ow https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-508ca3b7b5 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-508ca3b7b5 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-b3c0363595@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261223 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261224 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Constitutive sessions of the new Congress and Sena te DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: INAP\, La Administracion al Dia (BOE summary). Source: World risk: Spain has no invested Prime Minist er by 31 January 2027 after the 29 November snap election https://strature .net/calendar/#card=w-b3c0363595 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b3c0363595 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-ce3e2817c9@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261223 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261224 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: New Cortes meet DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Boletin Oficial del Estado. Source: World risk: Spain's fuel tax relief runs out in the gap between g overnments https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-ce3e2817c9 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-ce3e2817c9 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-e53e1a3e69@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261223 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261224 SUMMARY:Risk window: Congress turns Brazil's ban on fixed-odds betting into law by 31 Mar 2027: Congressional recess to 1 Feb 2027\; the term's clock stops DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, declared. Source: Presidência da República (Pla nalto). Source: World risk: Congress turns Brazil's ban on fixed-odds bett ing into law by 31 Mar 2027 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e53e1a3e 69 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e53e1a3e69 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-4eb5461666@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261225 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261226 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: New local officials sworn in DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Wikipedia. Source: World ri sk: China squeezes Taiwan's sea lanes: quarantine or blockade https://stra ture.net/calendar/#card=w-4eb5461666 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4eb5461666 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-73be59efee@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261228 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261229 SUMMARY:Risk window: Sweden Democrats take seats in the cabinet: Earliest d ate a government (not a caretaker) may decide on an extra election: three months after the 28 Sep first sitting (Strature calculation) DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, declared. Source: Sveriges riksdag (SFS). Source: World risk: Sweden Democrats take seats in the cabinet https://strature.n et/calendar/#card=w-73be59efee URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-73be59efee TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-d5f25da056@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261228 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261229 SUMMARY:Risk window: No Prime Minister\, and Sweden is forced into an extra election: Earliest date a government (not a caretaker) may decide on an e xtra election: three months after the 28 Sep first sitting (Strature calcu lation) DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, declared. Source: Sveriges riksdag (SFS). Source: World risk: No Prime Minister\, and Sweden is forced into an extra electi on https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d5f25da056 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d5f25da056 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-725a2c358c@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261230 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261231 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: EUDR applies to large and medium operators DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: European Commission. Source : World risk: Indonesian fire haze returns to Singapore at unhealthy level s in 2027 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-725a2c358c URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-725a2c358c TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:c-005-surplus@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Our call: Does China's 2026 goods surplus pass the 2025 record\, an d does the US or the EU put a new broad trade-defence measure on Chinese g oods by 31 Dec 2026? (our call 80%) DESCRIPTION:Our call\, declared. Our call 80%: 2026 surplus: past the recor d\, without a new US or EU measure. Sealed before release\; scored when it resolves. The brief judges that how long partners keep absorbing the surp lus is the limit that binds China's economy before mid-2027. Source: Forec ast register\, C-005 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=C-005-SURPLUS URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=C-005-SURPLUS TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:c-005-yuan@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Our call: Where does the yuan stand against the US dollar at the en d of 2026\, on the US Federal Reserve's H.10 rate? (our call 50%) DESCRIPTION:Our call\, declared. Our call 50%: Yuan at end-2026: stronger t han 6.65. Sealed before release\; scored when it resolves. Whether Beijing lets the yuan keep rising is part of how the surplus is argued with its p artners. Source: Forecast register\, C-005 https://strature.net/calendar/# card=C-005-YUAN URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=C-005-YUAN TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:f-0171@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Our call: Will the long-form definitive agreements of the Labrador hydro programme still be unsigned on 31 December 2026? (our call 60%) DESCRIPTION:Our call\, declared. Our call 60%. Sealed before release\; scor ed when it resolves. The test is whether the parties keep their own timeta ble\, judged on their own releases. Source: Forecast register\, C-006 http s://strature.net/calendar/#card=F-0171 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=F-0171 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:q-022@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Our call: By 31 December 2026\, does the 50% duty on listed Canadia n goods end\, ease or last\, and if it lasts\, what happens to Canada's sa les to the US on those lines? (our call 28%) DESCRIPTION:Our call\, declared. Our call 28%: the duty lasts\, US-bound sa les cut. Sealed before release\; scored when it resolves. Absorbing the du ty erases exporters' margins unless US customers carry at least 54 to 81% of it\, and the trade data that show who pays arrive on fixed days. Source : Forecast register\, Q-022 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=Q-022 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=Q-022 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:q-027@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Our call: By 31 December 2026\, does an EU-Canada association track open\, how many of the six drafted summit deals land\, and does the EU's share of Canada's goods exports stay above its 2025 level? (our call 47%) DESCRIPTION:Our call\, declared. Our call 47%: A partial package\, and the EU share holds above 2025. Sealed before release\; scored when it resolves . The brief finds the relationship adds defence access\, not market access \; for a goods exporter\, CETA's existing terms are the whole offer. Sourc e: Forecast register\, Q-027 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=Q-027 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=Q-027 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-06395ec391@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Council target for an MFF 2028-2034 deal\; Stratur e F-0211 to F-0216 resolve. Strature forecast F-0211: 12% (4 Oct 2026)\; S trature forecast F-0212: 8% (4 Oct 2026)\; Strature forecast F-0213: 47% ( 4 Oct 2026)\; Strature forecast F-0214: 18.3% (4 Oct 2026)\; Strature fore cast F-0215: 12.9% (4 Oct 2026)\; Strature forecast F-0216: 1.8% (4 Oct 20 26) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Council of the EU. Source: World risk: Europe's right turn: the RN in France\, the AfD in Germany\, Reform UK https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-06395ec391 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-06395ec391 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-112c215a32@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: China's tariff relief on Canadian canola meal\, pe as\, lobsters and crabs ends DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Global Affairs Canada. Sour ce: World risk: China's export surge meets a wall of trade defence https:/ /strature.net/calendar/#card=w-112c215a32 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-112c215a32 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-1201532fdb@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Oilseed wage deal ends ('paz social' for 2026) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Bichos de Campo. Source: W orld risk: A strike halts Gran Rosario grain shipments for three days or m ore https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-1201532fdb URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-1201532fdb TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-17158c82f1@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Reduced fuel VAT ends DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Notes from Poland. Source: World risk: The EU finds Poland off track on its deficit\, or Warsaw cuts its 2027 defence budget https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-17158c82f1 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-17158c82f1 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-1b77789012@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: End of Indonesia's transition under Permendag 16/2 026 DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: TradeArabia. Source: World risk: India\, Indonesia or Russia bans exports of rice\, palm oil or wheat in the El Niño year https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-1b77789012 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-1b77789012 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-298cec420e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Last date for RRF payments DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: European Commission / Counc il of the EU. Source: World risk: Brussels cuts Portugal's final recovery- fund payment https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-298cec420e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-298cec420e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-2a97e053a5@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: European Council's aim for MFF agreement DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Press Club Brussels. Source : World risk: EU leaders miss the deadline for the 2028-2034 budget https: //strature.net/calendar/#card=w-2a97e053a5 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-2a97e053a5 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-2d33f8e34f@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: End of the minister's promise not to raise subsidi sed prices DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: RCTI+. Source: World risk: A rise in subsidised fuel prices sets off protests in many Indonesian citi es https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-2d33f8e34f URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-2d33f8e34f TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-3355bb452e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: EU test on US steel and aluminium derivative tarif fs above 15% DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Supply Chain Dive. Source: World risk: The US raises its tariff on EU cars above the 15% deal rate ht tps://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-3355bb452e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-3355bb452e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-3b302a9ac7@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Quota allocation regulation (EU) 2026/1457 expires DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: VATupdate. Source: World r isk: A partner takes the EU's new steel quotas to the WTO\, or hits back h ttps://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-3b302a9ac7 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-3b302a9ac7 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-4d4c8688f9@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: End of the 2026 budget year (outlook 2.85% of GDP) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: DDTCNews. Source: World ris k: Indonesia lifts its 3% deficit cap or weakens the central bank's protec tion https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4d4c8688f9 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4d4c8688f9 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-536b794c43@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: REINFO lapses unless extended or replaced DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Congreso de la República. Source: World risk: Informal miners block Peru's national roads as their p ermit register ends https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-536b794c43 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-536b794c43 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-54ada137ba@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: East Shield: over 200 km of sensitive sections sec ured DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Defence24. Source: World r isk: Poland lays anti-personnel mines on its eastern border https://stratu re.net/calendar/#card=w-54ada137ba URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-54ada137ba TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-5fbb5f1da3@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Russian side's hoped date for commercial agreement s on Power of Baikal (Novak\, 21 Oct 2026) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: TASS. Source: World risk: Russia and China sign a binding Power of Siberia 2 (Power of Baikal) suppl y contract with a price https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-5fbb5f1da3 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-5fbb5f1da3 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-61f180c2b5@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: DCIA goal for the Definitive Agreements (also the date F-0171 resolves). Strature forecast F-0171: 60% (1 Oct 2026) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Hydro-Québec. Source: Worl d risk: The Labrador hydro agreements are still unsigned on 31 December 20 26 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-61f180c2b5 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-61f180c2b5 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-649b6c34fa@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Fuel excise cut and professional diesel aid end DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Boletin Oficial del Estado. Source: World risk: Spain's fuel tax relief runs out in the gap between g overnments https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-649b6c34fa URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-649b6c34fa TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-69324ba562@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Mexico's and USTR's target to close the review or reach first arrangements DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Secretaría de Economía ( Mexico). Source: World risk: The US tariff wall around Canada and Mexico s tays up or grows https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-69324ba562 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-69324ba562 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-72c120f198@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: End of the one-year US LPG supply deal for 2026 (e nd of 2026\; no end date published) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Atlantic Council EnergySou rce. Source: World risk: India tightens cooking-gas rationing again https: //strature.net/calendar/#card=w-72c120f198 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-72c120f198 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-75eb99244a@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Deadline to apply as an approved IC designer DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Bureau of Industry and Secu rity\, Federal Register. Source: World risk: Washington re-tightens chip e xport controls on China https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-75eb99244a URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-75eb99244a TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-7a33472686@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Canada's target to conclude Canada-Mercosur talks DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: BNN Bloomberg. Source: Wor ld risk: A court ruling halts the EU-Mercosur trade deal https://strature. net/calendar/#card=w-7a33472686 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-7a33472686 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-9b217d3b17@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Canada's stated target to conclude Canada-Mercosur talks DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: BNN Bloomberg. Source: Wor ld risk: Canada and Mercosur miss their end-2026 target for a trade deal h ttps://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9b217d3b17 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9b217d3b17 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-9d08cd4e0a@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Canada's stated goal to conclude Canada-Mercosur t alks DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: BNN Bloomberg. Source: Wor ld risk: Brazil after the vote: a contested result or a fiscal break https ://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9d08cd4e0a URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9d08cd4e0a TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-9d4dcc9a7c@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: UNIFIL's final mandate ends\; withdrawal during 20 27 DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: UNIFIL. Source: World risk: Fire from Lebanon into Israel resumes on seven or more days in a month ht tps://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9d4dcc9a7c URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9d4dcc9a7c TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-a3f30990c2@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: China's tariff suspension on canola meal\, peas\, lobster and crab ends DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Thomson Reuters ONESOURCE G lobal Trade. Source: World risk: China's tariffs on Canadian canola meal\, peas\, lobster and crab return on 1 January 2027 https://strature.net/cal endar/#card=w-a3f30990c2 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a3f30990c2 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-a4d753bf6a@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Supplementary budget lapses if not passed DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: United Daily News (CNA). So urce: World risk: Taiwan's legislature cuts the record supplementary budge t by more than a tenth\, or lets it lapse https://strature.net/calendar/#c ard=w-a4d753bf6a URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a4d753bf6a TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-b9c4e4ee6e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: N-VA's date for a multi-year budget\, after which it wants the debt brake DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: VRT NWS. Source: World ris k: De Wever's five-party government falls over the budget https://strature .net/calendar/#card=w-b9c4e4ee6e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b9c4e4ee6e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-bc0f2702ab@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: End of the 2026 swap quota year (RMB2tn) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Yicai Global. Source: World risk: A local-government financing vehicle misses a public bond payment h ttps://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-bc0f2702ab URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-bc0f2702ab TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-c5c48d7b2a@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Canada's remissions on some Chinese steel and alum inum products end DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Global Affairs Canada. Sour ce: World risk: China's tariffs on Canadian canola meal\, peas\, lobster a nd crab return on 1 January 2027 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-c5c 48d7b2a URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-c5c48d7b2a TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-dd2f223c08@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Government's aim to remove the triple lock DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Irish Examiner. Source: Wo rld risk: Irish troops deploy without a UN mandate https://strature.net/ca lendar/#card=w-dd2f223c08 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-dd2f223c08 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-e593c716e3@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Q1 2027 tariff announced (quarterly revision\, pat tern of 30 Jun and 30 Sep releases) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: SP Group. Source: World ri sk: Singapore's regulated power tariff jumps more than 10% in a quarter on gas costs https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e593c716e3 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e593c716e3 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-e67173450d@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: End of FAO's Oct-Dec 2026 hunger projection for go vernment areas of Yemen DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: FAO. Source: World risk: Th e Red Sea stays closed to most shipping: Houthi attacks\, Bab el-Mandeb an d the Suez Canal https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e67173450d URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e67173450d TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-fc0217ab69@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Cash Treasury clearing compliance date DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: US Securities and Exchange Commission. Source: World risk: The US Treasury market seizes and the Fed buys bonds to restore it https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-fc0217ab69 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-fc0217ab69 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-fe88a6335b@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Latest date for the 2027 budget to be adopted DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Stortinget. Source: World r isk: Norway's Labour minority government falls https://strature.net/calend ar/#card=w-fe88a6335b URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-fe88a6335b TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-2c27230a@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Signpost: The Q-027 forecasts on the EU share of Canada's exports r esolve. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Belgium (US ta riffs and Canada)\; Spain (US tariffs and Canada)\; France (US tariffs and Canada)\; Ireland (US tariffs and Canada)\; and 2 more https://strature.n et/calendar/#card=SG-2C27230A URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-2C27230A TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-ad1b6f2e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Signpost: Ksi Lisims final investment decision\, which its backers have targeted for the end of 2026 (Q-021 signpost\; the project page gives no date)\; Santos's heads of agreement covers 8.3% of the plant's planned capacity. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Australia (Can ada's capital projects) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-AD1B6F2E URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-AD1B6F2E TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-b24a2f0b@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Signpost: Ksi Lisims LNG final investment decision\, its published target (Q-021 signpost). DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Canada (Canada 's capital projects) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-B24A2F0B URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-B24A2F0B TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-bb07788a@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Signpost: The Q-022 scenarios resolve: the duty lasts or widens\, 7 0%. C-006's F-0169 follows at the turn of the year: China's relief on peas \, canola meal and seafood lapses\, 30%. Our estimates\, scored when they resolve. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Canada (US tar iffs and Canada) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-BB07788A URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-BB07788A TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-e58e9844@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Signpost: Our six Q-027 forecasts on the EU-Canada summit and the E U share resolve. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: European Union (US tariffs and Canada) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-E58E9844 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-E58E9844 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-ea4ad75c@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Signpost: The Q-022 scenarios resolve: the duty lasts or widens in scenarios put at 70%\, our estimate\, scored when it resolves. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: United States of America (US tariffs and Canada) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG- EA4AD75C URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-EA4AD75C TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-0db1a5ea91@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Signpost: United States: the midterms and a year of policy whiplash on trade\, the budget and the Fed: Strature Q-022 resolves DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: United States: the mid terms and a year of policy whiplash on trade\, the budget and the Fed http s://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0db1a5ea91 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0db1a5ea91 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-2622129d6e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Signpost: The US dollar slides 10% on the Fed's broad index: Regist er yuan question F-0205 to F-0208 resolves on H.10. Strature forecast F-02 05: 50% (2 Oct 2026)\; Strature forecast F-0206: 33% (2 Oct 2026)\; Stratu re forecast F-0207: 6% (2 Oct 2026)\; Strature forecast F-0208: 11% (2 Oct 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: The US dollar slides 1 0% on the Fed's broad index https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-2622129d 6e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-2622129d6e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-3c40f70d31@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Signpost: The US tariff wall around Canada and Mexico stays up or g rows: Q-022 resolves: the 50% duty ends\, eases or lasts DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: The US tariff wall aro und Canada and Mexico stays up or grows https://strature.net/calendar/#car d=w-3c40f70d31 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-3c40f70d31 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-43f6a6c057@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Signpost: France's National Assembly votes down CETA\, the EU-Canad a trade deal: Q-027 forecasts resolve (association track) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: France's National Asse mbly votes down CETA\, the EU-Canada trade deal https://strature.net/calen dar/#card=w-43f6a6c057 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-43f6a6c057 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-a06504940f@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Signpost: The Canada-EU summit delivers none of its drafted deals b y 31 Dec 2026: F-0215 resolves. Strature forecast F-0215: 12.9% (4 Oct 202 6) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: The Canada-EU summit d elivers none of its drafted deals by 31 Dec 2026 https://strature.net/cale ndar/#card=w-a06504940f URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a06504940f TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-ccb2c1b45a@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Signpost: The yuan falls back past 6.85 per US dollar: Strature key question KQ-24 “Where does the yuan stand against the US dollar at the end of 2026\, on the US Federal Reserve's H.10 rate?” resolves on the en d-2026 H.10 rate (F-0205 to F-0208). Strature forecast F-0205: 50% (2 Oct 2026)\; Strature forecast F-0206: 33% (2 Oct 2026)\; Strature forecast F-0 207: 6% (2 Oct 2026)\; Strature forecast F-0208: 11% (2 Oct 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: The yuan falls back pa st 6.85 per US dollar https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-ccb2c1b45a URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-ccb2c1b45a TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:op-95aa596a@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Opportunity: Canada's reported target date to conclude the Mercosur talks (press report). DESCRIPTION:Opportunity\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Brazil (US tariffs and Canada) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=OP-95AA596A URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=OP-95AA596A TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-69005b195d@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Opportunity: Qatar keeps force majeure on Asian LNG past November 2 026: Ksi Lisims LNG's final investment decision\, expected before the end of 2026 (company) DESCRIPTION:Opportunity\, tentative. Source: Ksi Lisims LNG. Source: World risk: Qatar keeps force majeure on Asian LNG past November 2026 https://st rature.net/calendar/#card=w-69005b195d URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-69005b195d TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:f-0169@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102 SUMMARY:Our call: On 1 January 2027\, with no renewal announced\, does Chin a's pre-relief tariff apply again to Canadian peas\, canola meal or seafoo d? (our call 30%) DESCRIPTION:Our call\, declared. Our call 30%. Sealed before release\; scor ed when it resolves. Canada's sales outside the US rose by more than a qua rter in a year\; China is one of the markets that growth depends on. Sourc e: Forecast register\, C-006 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=F-0169 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=F-0169 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:n-2026-0008-c2@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Threatened 50% US tariff on Canadian cars\, trucks and auto parts DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Named in Strature Note N-2026-0008 : Stellantis workers in Canada back a strike as auto tariffs loom. Source: Al Jazeera (AP and Reuters)\, https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/8/24 /trump-slams-canada-with-new-50-percent-auto-tariffs-for-2027 https://stra ture.net/calendar/#card=N-2026-0008-C2 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=N-2026-0008-C2 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-0784ba119b@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Planned start of income tax relief DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: ZDFheute. Source: World ri sk: Germany's pension reform misses its new spring target https://strature .net/calendar/#card=w-0784ba119b URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0784ba119b TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-07c5e19b18@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Indonesia's state-exporter rule for palm oil takes full effect DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: TradeArabia. Source: World risk: World food prices climb back to 2022 levels: the FAO Food Price Inde x tops 150 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-07c5e19b18 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-07c5e19b18 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-0afd06e783@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Threatened US auto tariff on Canada (F-0167). Stra ture forecast F-0167: 40% (1 Oct 2026) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: World risk: United States: the midterms and a year of policy whiplash on trade\, the budget and the Fed https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0afd06e783 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0afd06e783 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-0c590c82ea@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Possible 15% Section 232 duty on refined copper DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Federal Register. Source: World risk: The US tariff wall around Canada and Mexico stays up or grows https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0c590c82ea URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0c590c82ea TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-164671e039@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Successor ordinance under the revised Electricity Supply Act due to replace the Winter Reserve Ordinance DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Swiss Federal Council. Sou rce: World risk: Switzerland orders power restrictions or quotas in winter 2026-27 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-164671e039 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-164671e039 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-1e9cdb5009@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Ban on Russian LNG under long-term contracts appli es DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Interfax. Source: World ris k: The EU's ban on Russian LNG under long-term contracts bites from 1 Janu ary 2027 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-1e9cdb5009 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-1e9cdb5009 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-2a6d62ffee@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Q1 2027 tariff takes effect DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: SP Group. Source: World ris k: Singapore's regulated power tariff jumps more than 10% in a quarter on gas costs https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-2a6d62ffee URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-2a6d62ffee TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-2d671248ce@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Budget year 2027 begins\; without a budget the Rik sdag decides interim appropriations DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Sveriges riksdag (SFS). Sou rce: World risk: Sweden's Riksdag throws out the government's 2027 budget https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-2d671248ce URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-2d671248ce TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-2f02baf116@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Ban on Russian LNG under long-term contracts DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: European Parliament Legisla tive Observatory. Source: World risk: The EU delays its ban on Russian gas because of the Gulf shock https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-2f02baf11 6 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-2f02baf116 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-2f5c3f48a6@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: New cap period starts DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Ofgem. Source: World risk: UK household energy price cap jumps 10% or more in January or April 2027 h ttps://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-2f5c3f48a6 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-2f5c3f48a6 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-37f8e48aec@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Section 232: upholstered wood furniture to 30%\, c abinets and vanities to 50%\, unless a country deal intervenes DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Federal Register. Source: W orld risk: The US tariff wall around Canada and Mexico stays up or grows h ttps://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-37f8e48aec URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-37f8e48aec TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-4ac8e30a55@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Brazil's tariff on imported car kits (CKD) rises t o 35% DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Tribuna do Sertão (Agênci a O Globo). Source: World risk: China's export surge meets a wall of trade defence https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4ac8e30a55 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4ac8e30a55 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-4e04a22db9@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: 2027 budget in force (US$75 oil assumption) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: InvestorTrust. Source: Worl d risk: A rise in subsidised fuel prices sets off protests in many Indones ian cities https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4e04a22db9 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4e04a22db9 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-563493ac76@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Next quarterly quota window opens DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: European Commission\, Acces s2Markets. Source: World risk: A partner takes the EU's new steel quotas t o the WTO\, or hits back https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-563493ac76 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-563493ac76 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-6560395538@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Only state-owned exporters may ship palm oil from Indonesia DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: TradeArabia. Source: World risk: India\, Indonesia or Russia bans exports of rice\, palm oil or wheat in the El Niño year https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-6560395538 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-6560395538 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-79621ffcd5@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Proposed start of a 15% duty on refined copper DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Federal Register (The Whit e House). Source: World risk: The US puts a tariff of 10% or more on refin ed copper from Chile https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-79621ffcd5 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-79621ffcd5 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-7c712cdd6e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: 2027 budget in force DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Forbes Colombia. Source: Wo rld risk: Colombia loses its last investment-grade credit rating https://s trature.net/calendar/#card=w-7c712cdd6e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-7c712cdd6e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-7f58f28947@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: EU ban on Russian LNG under long-term contracts ap plies DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Official Journal of the EU (read via LawPlayer copy). Source: World risks: Zeebrugge goes a winter qu arter without Qatari or Russian LNG\; The US or EU sanctions a Chinese ter minal or buyer for Arctic LNG 2 cargoes\; Norway's gas flows to Europe fal l by a third for a week https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-7f58f28947 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-7f58f28947 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-9c1bdb88d4@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: 2027 Barents Sea quotas apply from the start of th e quota year DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: High North News. Source: W orld risk: Russia breaks the Barents Sea fisheries deal with Norway https: //strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9c1bdb88d4 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9c1bdb88d4 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-9dd4f879cc@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: 2027 budget in force\, deficit 2.4% of GDP DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: InvestorTrust. Source: Worl d risk: Indonesia lifts its 3% deficit cap or weakens the central bank's p rotection https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9dd4f879cc URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9dd4f879cc TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-9ec58cb654@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Threatened US auto tariffs on Canada could start ( C-006) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: World risk: USTR opens a S ection 301 investigation of Canada's Online Streaming Act https://strature .net/calendar/#card=w-9ec58cb654 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9ec58cb654 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-a4863790e6@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: 50% on Canadian cars\, trucks\, parts and steel th reatened from this date (US President\, 24 Aug 2026) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: The National News Desk (WJ LA). Source: World risk: The US tariff wall around Canada and Mexico stays up or grows https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a4863790e6 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a4863790e6 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-a50ae07736@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: EU ban on Russian LNG under long-term contracts ap plies (Regulation (EU) 2026/261) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: European Parliament Legisla tive Observatory. Source: World risk: Russia's war reaches NATO's eastern flank https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a50ae07736 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a50ae07736 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-a57e1cb980@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Calendar year 2027 eligibility starts DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Office of the US Trade Repr esentative (Federal Register public inspection). Source: World risk: The U S removes South Africa from AGOA's duty-free list https://strature.net/cal endar/#card=w-a57e1cb980 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a57e1cb980 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-ad4fdd0b58@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: 2027 budget law takes effect DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Il Sole 24 Ore. Source: Wor ld risk: Italy's 2026 deficit misses 3% and the EU procedure stays open ht tps://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-ad4fdd0b58 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-ad4fdd0b58 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-c82f7a2be8@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Updated benchmarks and the 20% default-value uplif t apply DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: International Carbon Action Partnership. Source: World risk: The EU puts off its carbon border bill\, or a big partner hits back https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-c82f7a2b e8 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-c82f7a2be8 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-da84f26fc8@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: UAE departure formally takes effect under OPEC sta tutes\; OPEC may stop reporting UAE output DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Rigzone. Source: World ris k: Free of OPEC\, the UAE pumps above 4 mb/d for a quarter https://stratur e.net/calendar/#card=w-da84f26fc8 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-da84f26fc8 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-e31720068e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Provisional twelfths start if no 2027 budget law DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: The Brussels Times (Belga) . Source: World risk: De Wever's five-party government falls over the budg et https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e31720068e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e31720068e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-e32a2e1cfb@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Section 232: upholstered furniture to 30%\, kitche n cabinets and vanities to 50% DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Federal Register. Source: W orld risk: US duties on Canadian softwood lumber stay above 30% through Oc tober 2027 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e32a2e1cfb URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e32a2e1cfb TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-e5a4075135@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Gas tariff (TUR) raw-material increase capped at 1 5% DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Boletin Oficial del Estado. Source: World risk: Spain's fuel tax relief runs out in the gap between g overnments https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e5a4075135 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e5a4075135 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-270b9ddd@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102 SUMMARY:Signpost: Whether the threatened 50% US duty on Canadian vehicles t akes effect (F-0167). DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Mexico (US tar iffs and Canada) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-270B9DDD URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-270B9DDD TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-b8ea59dc@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102 SUMMARY:Signpost: The date from which tariffs on Canadian vehicles are thre atened (C-006). DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: United States of America (US tariffs and Canada) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG- B8EA59DC URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-B8EA59DC TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-ce50ba1c4e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102 SUMMARY:Signpost: China's tariffs on Canadian canola meal\, peas\, lobster and crab return on 1 January 2027: F-0169 resolves. Strature forecast F-01 69: 30% (1 Oct 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: China's tariffs on Can adian canola meal\, peas\, lobster and crab return on 1 January 2027 https ://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-ce50ba1c4e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-ce50ba1c4e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-64a1f4b3c6@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102 SUMMARY:Risk window: England's drought carries into 2027 with a ban on non- essential water use: Window for the event opens DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, declared. Source: World risk: England's drought c arries into 2027 with a ban on non-essential water use https://strature.ne t/calendar/#card=w-64a1f4b3c6 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-64a1f4b3c6 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:op-4aa4544e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102 SUMMARY:Opportunity: The threatened US tariff on Canadian vehicles could st art (F-0167). DESCRIPTION:Opportunity\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: European Un ion (US tariffs and Canada) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=OP-4AA4544 E URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=OP-4AA4544E TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-3c5cd68d20@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270103 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270104 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: New Congress convenes (noon\, unless a law sets an other day) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: US National Archives. Sourc e: World risk: United States: the midterms and a year of policy whiplash o n trade\, the budget and the Fed https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-3c5 cd68d20 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-3c5cd68d20 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-4a734ef26b@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270103 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270104 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: New Congress assembles (20th Amendment\, unless a law sets another day) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: US National Archives. Sourc e: World risk: Congress blocks or conditions the F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4a734ef26b URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4a734ef26b TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-8111a1206e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270103 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270104 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Two sanctions bills lapse unless enacted DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: BusinessTech. Source: Worl d risk: The US removes South Africa from AGOA's duty-free list https://str ature.net/calendar/#card=w-8111a1206e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-8111a1206e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-9409126015@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270104 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270105 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: CBAM certificate price for Q4 2026 published DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: European Commission\, DG Ta xation and Customs Union. Source: World risk: The EU puts off its carbon b order bill\, or a big partner hits back https://strature.net/calendar/#car d=w-9409126015 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9409126015 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-2e097222b5@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270105 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270106 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Lula's new term begins (Constitutional Amendment 1 11) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Presidencia da Republica (P lanalto). Source: World risk: The US raises its Section 301 duty on Brazil or strips its exemptions https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-2e097222b5 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-2e097222b5 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-b1f9a43045@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270105 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270106 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Levy relief ends DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: EWN. Source: World risk: So uth Africa's regulated diesel price reaches R35 a litre https://strature.n et/calendar/#card=w-b1f9a43045 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b1f9a43045 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-d4d5ac3043@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270105 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270106 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Presidential inauguration (Constitutional Amendmen t 111 of 2021) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Rádio Senado. Source: Worl d risk: Brazil after the vote: a contested result or a fiscal break https: //strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d4d5ac3043 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d4d5ac3043 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-d55cffefcd@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270105 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270106 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Fuel levy relief ends DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: EWN. Source: World risk: Th e Reserve Bank raises South Africa's repo rate above 7.25% https://stratur e.net/calendar/#card=w-d55cffefcd URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d55cffefcd TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-746df107e2@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270107 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270108 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: MOFCOM DCS anti-dumping probe due to end\, 12 mont hs after its 7 Jan 2026 opening (extendable six months) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: CGTN (Xinhua). Source: Wor ld risk: Japan or China puts new export controls on chip materials or tool s aimed at the other https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-746df107e2 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-746df107e2 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-3ff16fdf61@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270109 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270110 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Proposed end of the extended maritime Section 301 suspension DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Office of the U.S. Trade R epresentative\, Federal Register. Source: World risk: China's export surge meets a wall of trade defence https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-3ff16 fdf61 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-3ff16fdf61 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:c-005-clocks@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270110 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270111 SUMMARY:Our call: On 10 Jan 2027\, are China's suspension of its October-20 25 export controls and the US suspension of the Affiliates Rule both still in effect\, and for how long: a short roll-over\, a longer settlement\, o r have both lapsed? (our call 63%) DESCRIPTION:Our call\, declared. Our call 63%: Trade clocks: rolled on a sh ort clock. Sealed before release\; scored when it resolves. The brief find s China's export-control leverage suspended\, not removed: the partners' t olerance of the surplus is written on these dated clocks. Source: Forecast register\, C-005 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=C-005-CLOCKS URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=C-005-CLOCKS TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:c-005-truce@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270110 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270111 SUMMARY:Our call: On 10 Jan 2027\, does the truce run on free\, at a price in China's exports or the yuan\, or has it lapsed or been hit by a broad U S or EU measure? (our call 68%) DESCRIPTION:Our call\, declared. Our call 68%: The truce past 10 Jan 2027: rolled free. Sealed before release\; scored when it resolves. The brief as ks on what terms the truce is rolled at 10 January 2027: free\, at a price in China's exports or currency\, or not at all. Source: Forecast register \, C-005 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=C-005-TRUCE URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=C-005-TRUCE TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:f-0209@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270110 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270111 SUMMARY:Our call: By 10 Jan 2027\, does a US tariff increase on all or subs tantially all Chinese goods\, above the rate in force on 2 Oct 2026\, take effect? (our call 10%) DESCRIPTION:Our call\, declared. Our call 10%. Sealed before release\; scor ed when it resolves. A general tariff rise would end the truce the brief's dated clocks depend on. Source: Forecast register\, C-005 https://stratur e.net/calendar/#card=F-0209 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=F-0209 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:f-0210@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270110 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270111 SUMMARY:Our call: By 10 Jan 2027\, does China halt rare-earth permanent-mag net export licences to US or EU buyers generally\, not only to named entit ies? (our call 4%) DESCRIPTION:Our call\, declared. Our call 4%. Sealed before release\; score d when it resolves. The test is whether China uses the licensing it never lifted against buyers in general. Source: Forecast register\, C-005 https: //strature.net/calendar/#card=F-0210 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=F-0210 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:e-uschn-truce@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270110 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270111 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: US-China trade truce ends (extended from 10 Nov 20 26) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Our C-005 calls on the trade clocks resolve the same day. Source: Ministry of Commerce of China (MOFCOM)\, 8t h round of talks\, https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/syxwfb/art/2026/art_d9ea01824 fc44fd8a29f7dc3f8ca9c72.html https://strature.net/calendar/#card=E-USCHN-T RUCE URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=E-USCHN-TRUCE TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-3211558bd4@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270110 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270111 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Extended US-China truce date DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pi ttman. Source: World risk: Washington re-tightens chip export controls on China https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-3211558bd4 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-3211558bd4 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-3461b6dd1b@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270110 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270111 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: US-China truce ends unless extended (reported) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Supply Chain Dive. Source: World risk: The US lifts its Graham Act waiver and puts secondary tariffs on a buyer of Russian oil https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-3461b6dd1 b URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-3461b6dd1b TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-3683f184ba@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270110 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270111 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: US-China Kuala Lumpur arrangement expires unless e xtended DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Global Times. Source: World risk: The US or EU sanctions a Chinese terminal or buyer for Arctic LNG 2 cargoes https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-3683f184ba URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-3683f184ba TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-5de8fb6e10@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270110 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270111 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: US-China trade truce (the Kuala Lumpur joint arran gement\, extended to this date per MOFCOM) ends unless extended again DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Ministry of Commerce of the PRC. Source: World risk: China squeezes Taiwan's sea lanes: quarantine or blockade https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-5de8fb6e10 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-5de8fb6e10 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-7c5276c0db@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270110 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270111 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: US-China truce terms end unless extended DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Supply Chain Dive. Source: World risk: The yuan falls back past 6.85 per US dollar https://strature.n et/calendar/#card=w-7c5276c0db URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-7c5276c0db TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-d0856cc71e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270110 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270111 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: US-China truce ends unless extended DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Supply Chain Dive. Source: World risk: China's export surge meets a wall of trade defence https://str ature.net/calendar/#card=w-d0856cc71e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d0856cc71e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-2b6ac9bb99@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270110 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270111 SUMMARY:Signpost: The US puts new sanctions on officials over Hong Kong: US -China truce date the register tracks DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: The US puts new sancti ons on officials over Hong Kong https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-2b6a c9bb99 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-2b6ac9bb99 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-8f4cab7bcc@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270110 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270111 SUMMARY:Signpost: The US puts Graham Act secondary tariffs on Chinese goods over Russian oil: Extended Kuala Lumpur arrangement ends\; Strature forec ast F-0209: 10% (2 Oct 2026) resolves DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Global Times. Source: World risk: The US puts Graham Act secondary tariffs on Chinese goods over Russian oi l https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-8f4cab7bcc URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-8f4cab7bcc TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-aada878d26@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270110 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270111 SUMMARY:Signpost: Japan or China puts new export controls on chip materials or tools aimed at the other: Resolution date of Strature key question KQ- 26 “By 10 Jan 2027\, does China halt rare-earth permanent-magnet export licences to US or EU buyers generally\, not only to named entities?” / F -0210. Strature forecast F-0210: 4% (2 Oct 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Japan or China puts ne w export controls on chip materials or tools aimed at the other https://st rature.net/calendar/#card=w-aada878d26 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-aada878d26 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-dc8e34687b@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270111 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270112 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: First Bundestag sitting week of 2027 DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Deutscher Bundestag. Source : World risk: Merz's coalition breaks or faces a confidence vote https://s trature.net/calendar/#card=w-dc8e34687b URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-dc8e34687b TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:f-0234-window@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270111 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20291001 SUMMARY:Risk window: Registered window: Between 11 Jan 2027 and 30 Sep 2029 \, does a US proclamation or Federal Register notice raise the additional tariff on all or substantially all Chinese-origin goods above the rate in force on 10 Jan 2027? DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, declared. Source: Forecast register\, C-005 https ://strature.net/calendar/#card=F-0234-WINDOW URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=F-0234-WINDOW TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-12d48b5ed5@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270112 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270113 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Deadline for comments before the 2027 USMCA joint review DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Office of the U.S. Trade Re presentative\, Federal Register. Source: World risk: The US raises or wide ns its Section 301 "forced-labour" tariff on the 60 listed economies https ://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-12d48b5ed5 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-12d48b5ed5 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-25d92bb530@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270112 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270113 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Comment deadline\, 2027 USMCA joint review DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: USTR. Source: World risk: U STR opens a Section 301 investigation of Canada's Online Streaming Act htt ps://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-25d92bb530 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-25d92bb530 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-8a8b7d812d@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270112 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270113 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: USTR comments due for the 2027 trade-pact review DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: International Compliance Pr ofessionals Association. Source: World risk: United States: the midterms a nd a year of policy whiplash on trade\, the budget and the Fed https://str ature.net/calendar/#card=w-8a8b7d812d URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-8a8b7d812d TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-95840f36d9@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270112 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270113 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Comments due on the 2027 USMCA joint review DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Office of the US Trade Repr esentative. Source: World risk: The US imposes the first labour-mechanism remedy on a Mexican facility https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-95840f3 6d9 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-95840f36d9 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-cbe11ce73f@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270112 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270113 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Comments due for the 2027 CUSMA joint review DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: USTR / Federal Register. So urce: World risks: The US tariff wall around Canada and Mexico stays up or grows\; The US openly strikes cartel targets inside Mexico without Mexico 's consent\; The US charges or sanctions another sitting Mexican governor or federal official https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-cbe11ce73f URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-cbe11ce73f TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-19f7fa1f0c@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270115 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270116 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Consultation on NOU 2026: 11 closes DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Euronews. Source: World ris k: Norway's parliament adopts new ethics rules for the oil fund https://st rature.net/calendar/#card=w-19f7fa1f0c URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-19f7fa1f0c TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-63b96a9ae1@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270121 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270122 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: First MPC meeting of 2027 DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Bloomberg HT. Source: World risk: Türkiye's central bank has to raise its policy rate again within 1 2 months https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-63b96a9ae1 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-63b96a9ae1 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-e32d8a41d3@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270121 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270122 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Policy rate decision DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Norges Bank. Source: World risk: Norges Bank raises its policy rate to 4.75% or more https://strature .net/calendar/#card=w-e32d8a41d3 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e32d8a41d3 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-e40a2b7c6c@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270126 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270127 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: FOMC meeting (26-27 Jan) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Federal Open Market Commit tee. Source: World risk: The president removes Fed Governor Lisa Cook\, an d the removal holds https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e40a2b7c6c URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e40a2b7c6c TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-0f66b74a8d@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270127 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270128 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Bank of Canada decision and Monetary Policy Report DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Bank of Canada. Source: Wor ld risk: Canada's real GDP falls for two quarters in a row by the fourth q uarter of 2027 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0f66b74a8d URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0f66b74a8d TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-4de9cdd1d1@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270127 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270128 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: FOMC decision (26-27 Jan\, tentative until confirm ed) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Source: World risk: The US dollar slides 10% on th e Fed's broad index https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4de9cdd1d1 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4de9cdd1d1 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-aeb430a52a@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270127 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270128 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Bank of Canada rate decision DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Bank of Canada. Source: Wor ld risk: The US dollar slides 10% on the Fed's broad index https://stratur e.net/calendar/#card=w-aeb430a52a URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-aeb430a52a TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-b96f3020db@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270127 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270128 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: FOMC decision (26-27 Jan) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Source: World risks: The Hong Kong dollar hits the weak end of its band and the HKMA buys it\; The Fed raises rates again by March 2027 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b96f3020db URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b96f3020db TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-619acc6143@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270128 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270129 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: MPC decision DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Bond.co.za. Source: World risk: The Reserve Bank raises South Africa's repo rate above 7.25% https:/ /strature.net/calendar/#card=w-619acc6143 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-619acc6143 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-5eb2b7e185@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270131 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270201 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Russia's non-producer diesel export ban ends unles s renewed DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Interfax. Source: World ris ks: A big fuel exporter bans or halts diesel exports to protect its home m arket\; A second EU country rations diesel or jet fuel https://strature.ne t/calendar/#card=w-5eb2b7e185 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-5eb2b7e185 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-66dc85fcff@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270131 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270201 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Fourth review available\, end-December 2026 perfor mance criteria DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: International Monetary Fund . Source: World risk: Argentina needs another IMF waiver to keep its progr amme on track https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-66dc85fcff URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-66dc85fcff TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-e87c8b7612@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270131 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270201 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Russia's petrol and diesel export bans run out unl ess extended DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: The Times of Central Asia. Source: World risk: The EU or the US sanctions a refinery in Kazakhstan ov er Russian oil https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e87c8b7612 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e87c8b7612 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-373e6b44c3@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270131 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270201 SUMMARY:Signpost: A Turkish-flagged merchant ship is hit in the Black Sea: Three months without a hit on a Turkish-linked ship (scenario signpost\; S trature's date) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: World risk: A Turkish-flagged mer chant ship is hit in the Black Sea https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-3 73e6b44c3 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-373e6b44c3 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-4a6579fb5d@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270131 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270201 SUMMARY:Signpost: Spain has no invested Prime Minister by 31 January 2027 a fter the 29 November snap election: End of this risk's window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: BOE. Source: World risk: Spain has no invested Prime Minister by 31 January 2027 after the 29 November snap election https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4a6579fb5d URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4a6579fb5d TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-92d96aab3f@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270131 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270201 SUMMARY:Signpost: Drone strikes on merchant ships off Bulgaria and Romania: Three months without a hit in an EU EEZ (scenario signpost) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: World risk: Drone strikes on merc hant ships off Bulgaria and Romania https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w- 92d96aab3f URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-92d96aab3f TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-f55c795b8d@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270131 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270201 SUMMARY:Signpost: US federal agencies shut for a week or more when the stop gap runs out on 11 December: End of this card's window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: US federal agencies sh ut for a week or more when the stopgap runs out on 11 December https://str ature.net/calendar/#card=w-f55c795b8d URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-f55c795b8d TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:e-cbam-certs@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270201 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270202 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: EU carbon border charge (CBAM): certificate sales open DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: European Commission\, CBAM questions and answers\, https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/document/dow nload/013fa763-5dce-4726-a204-69fec04d5ce2_en https://strature.net/calenda r/#card=E-CBAM-CERTS URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=E-CBAM-CERTS TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-be9fa059b1@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270201 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270202 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Union Budget FY2027/28 with the FY2026/27 Revised Estimate (expected\; no date notified) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: World risk: India's war-ye ar subsidies push its deficit above the 4.3% target https://strature.net/c alendar/#card=w-be9fa059b1 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-be9fa059b1 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-066104b8d5@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270204 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270205 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Bank of England MPC decision DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Bank of England. Source: Wo rld risk: A G7 bond rout forces a central bank to buy government bonds htt ps://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-066104b8d5 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-066104b8d5 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-729dfa091e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270204 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270205 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: ECB monetary policy meeting\, day 2 DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: European Central Bank. Sour ce: World risk: The ECB raises rates a third time on energy inflation http s://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-729dfa091e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-729dfa091e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-c342a1b328@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270204 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270205 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: MPC decision with Monetary Policy Report DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Bank of England. Source: Wo rld risks: The Bank of England raises rates on energy inflation\; The 30-y ear gilt yield closes above 6% https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-c342a 1b328 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-c342a1b328 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-8b1c18297d@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270205 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270206 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Informal leaders' meeting Alden Biesen 2 DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: European Pravda. Source: W orld risk: The EU puts the principal of Russia's immobilised reserves to u se https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-8b1c18297d URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-8b1c18297d TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-3a9151d766@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270206 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270207 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: EU rebalancing duties on US goods: suspension ends unless extended DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: French customs (DGDDI). Sou rce: World risk: The US lifts its general tariff on EU goods above 15% htt ps://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-3a9151d766 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-3a9151d766 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-7b5fc5d0c4@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270206 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270207 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: EU suspension of rebalancing duties on US goods en ds DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: French customs (DGDDI). Sou rce: World risk: The US singles out Austria over its neutrality https://st rature.net/calendar/#card=w-7b5fc5d0c4 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-7b5fc5d0c4 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-b82b0031f8@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270209 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270210 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: First RBA decision of 2027 (meeting 8-9 Feb) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Reserve Bank of Australia. Source: World risk: The Reserve Bank of Australia lifts the cash rate to 4 .85% or more by year end https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b82b0031f8 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b82b0031f8 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-d84ce13c0e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270209 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270210 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Anniversary of the Svalbard Treaty (signed 9 Feb 1 920) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: High North News. Source: Wo rld risk: Russia defies Norwegian authority on Svalbard https://strature.n et/calendar/#card=w-d84ce13c0e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d84ce13c0e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:c-005-spending@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270228 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270301 SUMMARY:Our call: Is combined spending of China's two main budgets in 2026\ , read from the Ministry of Finance release published by 28 Feb 2027\, bel ow 2025's? (our call 82%) DESCRIPTION:Our call\, declared. Our call 82%: Two-budget spending 2026: be low 2025. Sealed before release\; scored when it resolves. The brief finds local financing vehicles are being shut down to a 2028 deadline\, with ab out RMB5tn of their bonds due by end-2027. Source: Forecast register\, C-0 05 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=C-005-SPENDING URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=C-005-SPENDING TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-797f345da2@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270228 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270301 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: EUNAVFOR Aspides mandate ends unless renewed DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: European Commission\, DG Mi ddle East\, North Africa and the Gulf (reporting the Council decision). So urce: World risk: An Italian warship is hit near Bab el-Mandeb https://str ature.net/calendar/#card=w-797f345da2 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-797f345da2 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-6fd6dd561e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270228 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270301 SUMMARY:Signpost: A local-government financing vehicle misses a public bond payment: Ministry of Finance 2026 budget release due by this date DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: A local-government fin ancing vehicle misses a public bond payment https://strature.net/calendar/ #card=w-6fd6dd561e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-6fd6dd561e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-d9721a98a9@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270228 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270301 SUMMARY:Risk window: The US adds a second Section 301 tariff on most Vietna mese goods: Nine-month deadline if USTR extends the IP case DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, tentative. Source: Legal Information Institute\, Cornell Law School (a reproduction of the US Code). Source: World risk: Th e US adds a second Section 301 tariff on most Vietnamese goods https://str ature.net/calendar/#card=w-d9721a98a9 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d9721a98a9 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-67d0074104@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270304 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270305 SUMMARY:Signpost: Congress turns Brazil's ban on fixed-odds betting into la w by 31 Mar 2027: End of validity if not converted (Strature's count\; no official date published) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Presidência da República (Plana lto). Source: World risk: Congress turns Brazil's ban on fixed-odds bettin g into law by 31 Mar 2027 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-67d0074104 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-67d0074104 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-4fa3ce743b@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270311 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270312 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: USTR 12-month deadline in the Section 301 excess-c apacity case (opened 11 Mar 2026) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Wiley Rein LLP. Source: Wor ld risk: China's export surge meets a wall of trade defence https://stratu re.net/calendar/#card=w-4fa3ce743b URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4fa3ce743b TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-5cc760023d@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270311 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270312 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: About 12 months since the case opened\, when USTR generally decides DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Congressional Research Ser vice. Source: World risk: The US adds an excess-capacity tariff on Malaysi an electronics\, machinery or other named goods https://strature.net/calen dar/#card=w-5cc760023d URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-5cc760023d TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-1efbacc13a@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270311 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270312 SUMMARY:Risk window: The US adds an excess-capacity tariff on Thai cars\, m achinery or rubber goods: About 12 months since the case opened\, when UST R generally decides DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, tentative. Source: Congressional Research Service . Source: World risk: The US adds an excess-capacity tariff on Thai cars\, machinery or rubber goods https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-1efbacc13 a URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-1efbacc13a TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-bf5a01f6a7@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270311 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270312 SUMMARY:Risk window: The US adds a second Section 301 tariff on most Vietna mese goods: About 12 months since the excess-capacity cases opened DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, tentative. Source: USTR\, Federal Register. Sourc e: World risk: The US adds a second Section 301 tariff on most Vietnamese goods https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-bf5a01f6a7 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-bf5a01f6a7 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-9196a9073a@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270317 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270318 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Provincial elections\, which elect the Senate DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Kiesraad. Source: World ris k: Jetten's minority cabinet falls before October 2027 https://strature.ne t/calendar/#card=w-9196a9073a URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9196a9073a TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-0bd200e03c@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270317 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270318 SUMMARY:Risk window: The Fed raises rates again by March 2027: FOMC decisio n with projections (16-17 Mar)\; window ends DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, tentative. Source: Board of Governors of the Fede ral Reserve System. Source: World risk: The Fed raises rates again by Marc h 2027 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0bd200e03c URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0bd200e03c TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-4ffa12838b@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270318 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270319 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: European Council\, 18-19 Mar\, proposed in Rome DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: European Pravda. Source: W orld risk: No EU legal act funds Ukraine for 2028 by late October 2027 htt ps://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4ffa12838b URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4ffa12838b TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-566ffa6521@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270318 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270319 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: European Council\, proposed in Rome (18-19 Mar) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: European Pravda. Source: W orld risk: The EU puts the principal of Russia's immobilised reserves to u se https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-566ffa6521 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-566ffa6521 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-77c578cf77@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270318 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270319 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: ECB monetary policy meeting\, day 2 DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: European Central Bank. Sour ce: World risk: The ECB raises rates a third time on energy inflation http s://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-77c578cf77 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-77c578cf77 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-809a50c4b2@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270318 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270319 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Decision and Monetary Policy Report DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Norges Bank. Source: World risk: Norges Bank raises its policy rate to 4.75% or more https://strature .net/calendar/#card=w-809a50c4b2 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-809a50c4b2 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-9defb9af87@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270318 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270319 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: MPC decision DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Bank of England. Source: Wo rld risks: The Bank of England raises rates on energy inflation\; The 30-y ear gilt yield closes above 6%\; The Reserve Bank raises South Africa's re po rate above 7.25% https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9defb9af87 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9defb9af87 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-d005b924a9@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270318 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270319 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Norges Bank decision and Monetary Policy Report DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Norges Bank. Source: World risk: The krone gives back its 2026 gains against the euro https://stratur e.net/calendar/#card=w-d005b924a9 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d005b924a9 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-c9ccf503b1@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270319 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270320 SUMMARY:Signpost: Germany's pension reform misses its new spring target: La st Bundestag sitting day of the first quarter DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: Deutscher Bundestag. Source: World risk: Germany's pension reform misses its new spring target https://strat ure.net/calendar/#card=w-c9ccf503b1 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-c9ccf503b1 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-898d3440d5@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270325 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270326 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Pecan final ruling due (investigation extended on 10 Sep 2026) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Guangming Online (citing MO FCOM). Source: World risk: China takes formal counter-measures against Mex ico's tariff wall https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-898d3440d5 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-898d3440d5 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:c-005-work-report@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270331 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270401 SUMMARY:Our call: Does the 2027 Government Work Report\, published in full by 31 Mar 2027\, set a numeric target for the household consumption share of GDP or a new nationwide cash transfer to households? (our call 83%) DESCRIPTION:Our call\, declared. Our call 83%: Work report\, March 2027: no turn\, no household target. Sealed before release\; scored when it resolv es. A turn to households in the March report would cut against the brief's call that household demand does not turn. Source: Forecast register\, C-0 05 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=C-005-WORK-REPORT URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=C-005-WORK-REPORT TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-120a93feb3@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270331 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270401 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Italy's spring deficit notification to the Commiss ion (by) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Istat. Source: World risk: Italy's 2026 deficit misses 3% and the EU procedure stays open https://str ature.net/calendar/#card=w-120a93feb3 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-120a93feb3 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-88bada5b44@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270331 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270401 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Q2 2027 tariff announced DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: SP Group. Source: World ri sk: Singapore's regulated power tariff jumps more than 10% in a quarter on gas costs https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-88bada5b44 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-88bada5b44 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-b39acec8cf@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270331 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270401 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: DCIA term ends unless extended in writing DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Hydro-Québec. Source: Worl d risk: The Labrador hydro agreements are still unsigned on 31 December 20 26 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b39acec8cf URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b39acec8cf TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-e1fb482282@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270331 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270401 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Sweden's industrial agreements expire DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: IF Metall for Facken inom i ndustrin (via TT). Source: World risk: A month-long stop in EU copper smel ting or refining https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e1fb482282 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e1fb482282 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-f062e3a6d5@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270331 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270401 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Annual Hong Kong Policy Act report due DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: US Department of State (mi rrored by GlobalSecurity.org). Source: World risk: The US puts new sanctio ns on officials over Hong Kong https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-f062e 3a6d5 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-f062e3a6d5 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-100214f082@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270331 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270401 SUMMARY:Signpost: EU leaders miss the deadline for the 2028-2034 budget: Th is card's deadline for a European Council MFF agreement (Strature's\, not an official date) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Press Club Brussels. Source: Worl d risk: EU leaders miss the deadline for the 2028-2034 budget https://stra ture.net/calendar/#card=w-100214f082 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-100214f082 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-28a52e001c@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270331 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270401 SUMMARY:Signpost: Informal miners block Peru's national roads as their perm it register ends: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Informal miners block Peru's national roads as their permit register ends https://strature.net/c alendar/#card=w-28a52e001c URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-28a52e001c TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-33cbbc3712@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270331 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270401 SUMMARY:Signpost: A winter LNG crunch forces gas rationing in Europe\, Japa n or South Korea: Scored window ends DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: A winter LNG crunch fo rces gas rationing in Europe\, Japan or South Korea https://strature.net/c alendar/#card=w-33cbbc3712 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-33cbbc3712 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-47b6fd21f6@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270331 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270401 SUMMARY:Signpost: US natural gas (Henry Hub) averages US$5 per MMBtu or mor e in a winter month: Scored window ends\; March average published in April DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: US Energy Information Administrati on. Source: World risk: US natural gas (Henry Hub) averages US$5 per MMBtu or more in a winter month https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-47b6fd21f 6 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-47b6fd21f6 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-6c11e04d74@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270331 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270401 SUMMARY:Signpost: Irish public-sector strikes return before April 2027: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Irish public-sector st rikes return before April 2027 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-6c11e 04d74 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-6c11e04d74 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-9443cca268@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270331 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270401 SUMMARY:Signpost: Zeebrugge goes a winter quarter without Qatari or Russian LNG: Scored window ends DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Zeebrugge goes a winte r quarter without Qatari or Russian LNG https://strature.net/calendar/#car d=w-9443cca268 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9443cca268 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-ad8327e69d@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270331 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270401 SUMMARY:Signpost: Kazakhstan moves to seize assets over the Kashagan sulphu r fine: Strature check: any asset freeze reported DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: The Times of Central Asia. Source : World risk: Kazakhstan moves to seize assets over the Kashagan sulphur f ine https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-ad8327e69d URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-ad8327e69d TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-b75b9ed46c@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270331 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270401 SUMMARY:Signpost: Russia defies Norwegian authority on Svalbard: Signpost d ate: a court ruling on the arrest by this date would point to the courts s ettling it DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: World risk: Russia defies Norwegi an authority on Svalbard https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b75b9ed46c URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b75b9ed46c TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-eeb7e9abab@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270331 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270401 SUMMARY:Signpost: A German chemical or steel plant closes or cuts deep as g as costs climb: Scored window ends DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: A German chemical or s teel plant closes or cuts deep as gas costs climb https://strature.net/cal endar/#card=w-eeb7e9abab URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-eeb7e9abab TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-84f888e68f@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270401 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270402 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Food rate falls to 1%\, if enacted DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: House of Representatives. S ource: World risk: The Diet enacts a consumption-tax cut https://strature. net/calendar/#card=w-84f888e68f URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-84f888e68f TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-1d33a1a6cb@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270402 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270403 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Commerce Secretary to inform the President on gene ric drugs\; no published report required DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: The White House. Source: Wo rld risk: The US raises its tariff on Swiss goods or Swiss medicines https ://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-1d33a1a6cb URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-1d33a1a6cb TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-cc724ce98f@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270406 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270407 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: BIS licence-free authorisation for G42 and Core42 in the UAE expires unless they become US companies DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Covington & Burling. Source : World risk: US export limits hold back a Saudi AI data centre https://st rature.net/calendar/#card=w-cc724ce98f URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-cc724ce98f TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-583492ed12@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270407 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270408 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: OFAC GL 135 on Russian diesel imports expires DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Clyde & Co. Source: World r isks: The US lifts its Graham Act waiver and puts secondary tariffs on a b uyer of Russian oil\; The US eases sanctions on Russia's oil majors while the EU keeps its Russia sanctions https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-58 3492ed12 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-583492ed12 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-6394a58f23@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270407 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270408 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: OFAC General Licence 135 (issued 9 Oct 2026) on im ports of Russian-origin diesel runs to this date DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Global Trade Alert. Source: World risk: The US penalises India again for buying Russian oil https://s trature.net/calendar/#card=w-6394a58f23 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-6394a58f23 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-b7bf048df8@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270407 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270408 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Inola referendum on the smelter\; moratorium ends DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Kitco. Source: World risk: A court halts the planned aluminium smelter at Inola\, Oklahoma https://st rature.net/calendar/#card=w-b7bf048df8 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b7bf048df8 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-d8e6b74645@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270414 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270415 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: First-term MPs reach the pension requirement DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: L'Espresso. Source: World risk: Italy votes before late October 2027\, the first time under the new majority-bonus law https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d8e6b74645 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d8e6b74645 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:e-fra-pres@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270418 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270503 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: France presidential election: first round 18 Apr\, runoff 2 May 2027 DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Service-Public.fr (French government)\, Election 2027\, https://www.service-public.gouv.fr/particuli ers/actualites/A15053?lang=en https://strature.net/calendar/#card=E-FRA-PR ES URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=E-FRA-PRES TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-69c5204b40@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270418 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270419 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Saarland and Schleswig-Holstein state elections DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Wahlrecht.de. Source: World risk: Europe's right turn: the RN in France\, the AfD in Germany\, Reform UK https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-69c5204b40 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-69c5204b40 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-dc49d12358@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270418 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270419 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Presidential election\, first round DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Allianz Trade. Source: Worl d risks: The Lecornu government falls before France adopts its 2027 budget \; A cyberattack halts a French food\, health or transport service for a d ay or more\; Fuel and cost-of-living protests force a state of emergency o r a fuel blockade in France https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-dc49d123 58 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-dc49d12358 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-f962e045b9@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270418 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270419 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: French presidential election\, first round DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Reuters (via Internazionale ). Source: World risks: Europe's right turn: the RN in France\, the AfD in Germany\, Reform UK\; Cost-of-living protests bring down a government in a large EU economy https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-f962e045b9 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-f962e045b9 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-bc74e5c66c@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270424 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270425 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: OFAC GL 130B (Lukoil Bulgaria) expires DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: US Treasury OFAC. Source: W orld risk: The US eases sanctions on Russia's oil majors while the EU keep s its Russia sanctions https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-bc74e5c66c URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-bc74e5c66c TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-90bbfd7e33@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270425 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270426 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: North Rhine-Westphalia state election DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Wahlrecht.de. Source: World risk: Europe's right turn: the RN in France\, the AfD in Germany\, Reform UK https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-90bbfd7e33 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-90bbfd7e33 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-0305142fdd@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270429 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270430 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: MPC decision with Monetary Policy Report DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Bank of England. Source: Wo rld risk: The Bank of England raises rates on energy inflation https://str ature.net/calendar/#card=w-0305142fdd URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0305142fdd TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-56186f35e1@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270429 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270430 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: ECB monetary policy meeting\, day 2 DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: European Central Bank. Sour ce: World risk: The ECB raises rates a third time on energy inflation http s://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-56186f35e1 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-56186f35e1 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-62c5b0d05a@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270430 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270501 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: MSCI consultation feedback closes DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: MSCI via Business Wire (fin viz). Source: World risk: Indonesia's shares are moved out of the main eme rging-markets benchmark https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-62c5b0d05a URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-62c5b0d05a TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-ffe44d1fb2@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270430 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270501 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Next Special 301 Report DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Office of the U.S. Trade R epresentative. Source: World risk: The US adds a second Section 301 tariff on most Vietnamese goods https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-ffe44d1fb2 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-ffe44d1fb2 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-9d8b141035@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270430 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270501 SUMMARY:Signpost: El Niño floods leave 100\,000 people in Peru without hom e or livelihood: End of the rainy season and the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: El Niño floods leave 100\,000 people in Peru without home or livelihood https://strature.net/ca lendar/#card=w-9d8b141035 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9d8b141035 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-cb38bd9f32@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270430 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270501 SUMMARY:Risk window: Switzerland orders power restrictions or quotas in win ter 2026-27: Scored window closes DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, declared. Source: World risk: Switzerland orders power restrictions or quotas in winter 2026-27 https://strature.net/calend ar/#card=w-cb38bd9f32 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-cb38bd9f32 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-577756c294@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270502 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270503 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Presidential election\, second round DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Allianz Trade. Source: Worl d risks: A cyberattack halts a French food\, health or transport service f or a day or more\; Fuel and cost-of-living protests force a state of emerg ency or a fuel blockade in France https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-57 7756c294 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-577756c294 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-728a9f816e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270502 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270503 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: French presidential run-off DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Reuters (via Internazionale ). Source: World risk: Europe's right turn: the RN in France\, the AfD in Germany\, Reform UK https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-728a9f816e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-728a9f816e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-e12f3f1757@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270502 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270503 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: French presidential election\, second round DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Présidence de la Républiq ue. Source: World risk: Cost-of-living protests bring down a government in a large EU economy https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e12f3f1757 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e12f3f1757 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-1a22697148@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270505 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270506 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Policy rate decision DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Norges Bank. Source: World risk: Norges Bank raises its policy rate to 4.75% or more https://strature .net/calendar/#card=w-1a22697148 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-1a22697148 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-71da84b767@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270506 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270507 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: UK local elections\; Northern Ireland Assembly DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Wikipedia. Source: World r isk: Europe's right turn: the RN in France\, the AfD in Germany\, Reform U K https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-71da84b767 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-71da84b767 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-bdc376bdee@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270515 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270516 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Revised National Budget due\; transition commissio n reports no later than this DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Altinget. Source: World ris k: Norway's Labour minority government falls https://strature.net/calendar /#card=w-bdc376bdee URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-bdc376bdee TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-f68a00b019@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270527 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270528 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: MPC decision DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Bond.co.za. Source: World risk: The Reserve Bank raises South Africa's repo rate above 7.25% https:/ /strature.net/calendar/#card=w-f68a00b019 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-f68a00b019 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-d5137ea5d2@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270528 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270529 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Human rights regime on Russia expires unless renew ed DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Council of the EU via EEAS. Source: World risk: A veto lets an EU Russia sanctions regime lapse at it s renewal date https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d5137ea5d2 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d5137ea5d2 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:e-ken-campaign@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270529 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270808 SUMMARY:Risk window: Kenya: official election campaign period DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, declared. Source: IEBC\, critical timelines for t he 2027 general election\, https://iebc.or.ke/news/?Critical_Timelines_for _the_2027GE= https://strature.net/calendar/#card=E-KEN-CAMPAIGN URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=E-KEN-CAMPAIGN TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-42e077037f@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270530 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270531 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Bremen state election DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Wahlrecht.de. Source: World risk: Europe's right turn: the RN in France\, the AfD in Germany\, Reform UK https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-42e077037f URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-42e077037f TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-c021817c3a@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270530 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270531 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Spence operators' and maintainers' contract ends DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Revista Digital Minera RED IMIN. Source: World risk: A strike cuts output at a large Chilean copper m ine for a week or more https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-c021817c3a URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-c021817c3a TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-51311b8850@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270601 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270602 SUMMARY:Risk window: River heat forces three or more French reactors to sto p or cut output at once in summer 2027: Scored window opens\; Golfech summ er heating cap applies to 30 Sep DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, declared. Source: IMEP-CNRS site. Source: World r isk: River heat forces three or more French reactors to stop or cut output at once in summer 2027 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-51311b8850 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-51311b8850 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-ce3f278478@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270606 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270607 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Popular vote on the stabilisation part\, the date its supporters aim for DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: SRF. Source: World risk: S wiss parliament blocks or sends back the EU treaty package https://stratur e.net/calendar/#card=w-ce3f278478 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-ce3f278478 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-0ea6694cf6@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270610 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270611 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: ECB monetary policy meeting\, day 2 DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: European Central Bank. Sour ce: World risk: The ECB raises rates a third time on energy inflation http s://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0ea6694cf6 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0ea6694cf6 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:c-005-exports@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270615 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270616 SUMMARY:Our call: Are China's January-May 2027 goods exports in US dollars\ , as first published by customs by 15 Jun 2027\, above the same months of 2026? (our call 86%) DESCRIPTION:Our call\, declared. Our call 86%: Exports Jan-May 2027: still above 2026. Sealed before release\; scored when it resolves. The brief's c all is that exports keep growing and factory profits recover while househo ld demand does not turn. Source: Forecast register\, C-005 https://stratur e.net/calendar/#card=C-005-EXPORTS URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=C-005-EXPORTS TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-17d0c5e1fb@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270615 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270616 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: About 270 days after enactment: wind-down period e nds (270 days after 18 Sep 2026) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Baker McKenzie. Source: Wo rld risk: The US lifts its Graham Act waiver and puts secondary tariffs on a buyer of Russian oil https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-17d0c5e1fb URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-17d0c5e1fb TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-95fd6a6f60@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270617 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270618 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Norges Bank decision and Monetary Policy Report DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Norges Bank. Source: World risk: The krone gives back its 2026 gains against the euro https://stratur e.net/calendar/#card=w-95fd6a6f60 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-95fd6a6f60 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-f0046c7e27@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270617 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270618 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Decision and Monetary Policy Report DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Norges Bank. Source: World risk: Norges Bank raises its policy rate to 4.75% or more https://strature .net/calendar/#card=w-f0046c7e27 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-f0046c7e27 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-fadfdc8dab@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270617 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270618 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: MPC decision DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Bank of England. Source: Wo rld risk: The Bank of England raises rates on energy inflation https://str ature.net/calendar/#card=w-fadfdc8dab URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-fadfdc8dab TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-c9eaf9dc55@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270623 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270624 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: US Section 301 tariff on Chinese semiconductors ri ses from 0% (rate announced at least 30 days before) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Office of the U.S. Trade Re presentative\, Federal Register. Source: World risk: China's export surge meets a wall of trade defence https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-c9eaf9 dc55 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-c9eaf9dc55 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:c-005-households@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270625 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270626 SUMMARY:Our call: Is the People's Bank of China's January-May 2027 change i n household loans\, published by 25 Jun 2027\, zero or negative\, or posit ive? (our call 72%) DESCRIPTION:Our call\, declared. Our call 72%: Household credit Jan-May 202 7: still repaying. Sealed before release\; scored when it resolves. The br ief finds Beijing is putting money into bank capital and housing\, not che aper credit\, so households get no new reason to borrow. Source: Forecast register\, C-005 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=C-005-HOUSEHOLDS URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=C-005-HOUSEHOLDS TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-86d9a984da@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270625 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270626 SUMMARY:Signpost: A local-government financing vehicle misses a public bond payment: PBoC January-May household loans due by this date DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: A local-government fin ancing vehicle misses a public bond payment https://strature.net/calendar/ #card=w-86d9a984da URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-86d9a984da TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-6071426153@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270627 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270628 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Canada's 50% steel surtax measures run to this dat e DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Canada Border Services Agen cy. Source: World risk: China's export surge meets a wall of trade defence https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-6071426153 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-6071426153 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-649ec0ab65@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270628 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270629 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Strature Q-028 window closes\; register rows F-023 7 to F-0243 resolve by 2027-06-30 (16 Oct 2026: highest F-0242\, the US st rikes Iran with no week below $3.50\, 26.7%\; F-0241\, standoff\, 22.2%). Strature forecast F-0237: 16% (16 Oct 2026)\; Strature forecast F-0238: 8% (16 Oct 2026)\; Strature forecast F-0239: 15.6% (16 Oct 2026)\; Strature forecast F-0240: 10.5% (16 Oct 2026)\; Strature forecast F-0243: 1% (16 Oc t 2026) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: World risk: The Strait of H ormuz shuts again https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-649ec0ab65 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-649ec0ab65 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-9daa595225@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270628 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270629 SUMMARY:Signpost: US gasoline stays at or above US$3.50 a gallon to June 20 27: Last print in the Q-028 window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: US gasoline stays at o r above US$3.50 a gallon to June 2027 https://strature.net/calendar/#card= w-9daa595225 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9daa595225 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:c-005-taiwan@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270630 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270701 SUMMARY:Our call: Between 2 Oct 2026 and 30 Jun 2027\, does the PLA stage a named joint exercise around Taiwan\, do China and the Philippines come to an armed clash\, or does it go further? (our call 47%) DESCRIPTION:Our call\, declared. Our call 47%: Taiwan and the Philippines: no named drill and no clash. Sealed before release\; scored when it resolv es. A drill\, a clash at sea or a blockade near the Strait would test the sea lanes that carry the trade the brief follows. Source: Forecast registe r\, C-005 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=C-005-TAIWAN URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=C-005-TAIWAN TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:f-0233@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270630 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270701 SUMMARY:Our call: Between 9 Oct 2026 and 30 Jun 2027\, do PRC authorities i mpose inspections\, a quarantine or a closure on traffic to at least one T aiwan port\, or do PLA forces attack Taiwan-held territory or forces? (our call 7%) DESCRIPTION:Our call\, declared. Our call 7%. Sealed before release\; score d when it resolves. The brief prices it as a risk beside its scenarios\, w ith the likelihood word 'very unlikely'. Source: Forecast register\, C-005 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=F-0233 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=F-0233 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:q-028@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270630 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270701 SUMMARY:Our call: Between 14 Oct 2026 and 28 Jun 2027\, do the US and Iran agree a text\, does the US strike Iran\, and does any EIA weekly regular-g asoline print fall below $3.50? (our call 26.7%) DESCRIPTION:Our call\, declared. Our call 26.7%: The US strikes Iran\, no w eek below $3.50. Sealed before release\; scored when it resolves. For airl ines and truckers\, a gasoline week below the line says little about their own fuel bill: diesel and jet fuel stay dear. Source: Forecast register\, Q-028 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=Q-028 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=Q-028 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-0e89ef438a@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270630 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270701 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Egypt's fiscal 2026/27 ends\; SCA reports the year 's canal revenue DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Egyptian Streets (citing t he Suez Canal Authority). Source: World risk: The Red Sea stays closed to most shipping: Houthi attacks\, Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal https://s trature.net/calendar/#card=w-0e89ef438a URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0e89ef438a TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-21a6ec89cd@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270630 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270701 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Target for 2\,800 MW of public rooftop solar DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Asia News Network (Viet Na m News). Source: World risk: Northern Vietnam runs short of power in the 2 027 dry season https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-21a6ec89cd URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-21a6ec89cd TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-35f85d20da@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270630 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270701 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: MSCI decision on Indonesia's index status DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: OCBC Global Markets Researc h. Source: World risk: Indonesia lifts its 3% deficit cap or weakens the c entral bank's protection https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-35f85d20da URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-35f85d20da TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-5be1437da6@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270630 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270701 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Commission assesses extending the regime to steel- containing products DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: European Commission\, Acces s2Markets. Source: World risk: A partner takes the EU's new steel quotas t o the WTO\, or hits back https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-5be1437da6 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-5be1437da6 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-a12dfa22ae@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270630 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270701 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Repo clearing compliance date DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: US Securities and Exchange Commission. Source: World risk: The US Treasury market seizes and the Fed buys bonds to restore it https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a12dfa22ae URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a12dfa22ae TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-a6e49de385@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270630 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270701 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Q3 2027 tariff announced DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: SP Group. Source: World ri sk: Singapore's regulated power tariff jumps more than 10% in a quarter on gas costs https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a6e49de385 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a6e49de385 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-d98d3b2359@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270630 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270701 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: MSCI decision on Indonesia on or before this date DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: MSCI via Business Wire (fin viz). Source: World risk: Indonesia's shares are moved out of the main eme rging-markets benchmark https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d98d3b2359 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d98d3b2359 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-e8f0bd5c06@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270630 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270701 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: EUDR applies to micro and small operators DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: European Commission. Source : World risk: Indonesian fire haze returns to Singapore at unhealthy level s in 2027 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e8f0bd5c06 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e8f0bd5c06 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-01a0972ebc@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270630 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270701 SUMMARY:Signpost: Canada and Saudi Arabia miss their early-2027 target for an investment treaty: End of this card's window (Strature's choice) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Canada and Saudi Arabi a miss their early-2027 target for an investment treaty https://strature.n et/calendar/#card=w-01a0972ebc URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-01a0972ebc TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-3026955941@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270630 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270701 SUMMARY:Signpost: The Canada-UAE trade deal\, concluded in July\, is not si gned by mid-2027: End of this card's window (Strature's choice) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: The Canada-UAE trade d eal\, concluded in July\, is not signed by mid-2027 https://strature.net/c alendar/#card=w-3026955941 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-3026955941 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-645e062dd8@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270630 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270701 SUMMARY:Signpost: A deadly or ship-disabling clash at Scarborough Shoal: St rature forecast F-0201: 12% (2 Oct 2026) resolves DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: A deadly or ship-disab ling clash at Scarborough Shoal https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-645e 062dd8 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-645e062dd8 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-7a4925cd42@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270630 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270701 SUMMARY:Signpost: Bangladesh has no new IMF programme by the end of June 20 27: End of FY2027 and of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Bangladesh has no new IMF programme by the end of June 2027 https://strature.net/calendar/#card= w-7a4925cd42 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-7a4925cd42 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-7ea2ee4e6c@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270630 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270701 SUMMARY:Signpost: China squeezes Taiwan's sea lanes: quarantine or blockade : Strature F-0199 to F-0204 resolve (C-005 Taiwan question). Strature fore cast F-0199: 47% (2 Oct 2026)\; Strature forecast F-0200: 28% (2 Oct 2026) \; Strature forecast F-0201: 12% (2 Oct 2026)\; Strature forecast F-0202: 4% (2 Oct 2026)\; Strature forecast F-0203: 3% (2 Oct 2026)\; Strature for ecast F-0204: 6% (2 Oct 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: China squeezes Taiwan' s sea lanes: quarantine or blockade https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w- 7ea2ee4e6c URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-7ea2ee4e6c TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-8b4a588fd4@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270630 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270701 SUMMARY:Signpost: A chip shortage idles a Mexican car or electronics plant for two weeks: F-0202 resolves (Taiwan port blockade or quarantine). Strat ure forecast F-0202: 4% (2 Oct 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: A chip shortage idles a Mexican car or electronics plant for two weeks https://strature.net/cale ndar/#card=w-8b4a588fd4 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-8b4a588fd4 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-a0ecb04665@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270630 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270701 SUMMARY:Signpost: A fuel shortfall forces rolling power cuts in Taiwan: F-0 202 and F-0233 resolve (blockade\, quarantine or attack on Taiwan). Stratu re forecast F-0202: 4% (2 Oct 2026)\; Strature forecast F-0233: 7% (10 Oct 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: A fuel shortfall force s rolling power cuts in Taiwan https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a0ecb 04665 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a0ecb04665 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-4097ed7b03@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270630 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270701 SUMMARY:Risk window: Free of OPEC\, the UAE pumps above 4 mb/d for a quarte r: EIA's expected return of most Gulf output to pre-conflict levels DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, tentative. Source: US Energy Information Administ ration. Source: World risk: Free of OPEC\, the UAE pumps above 4 mb/d for a quarter https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4097ed7b03 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4097ed7b03 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-eacfe1d941@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270630 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270701 SUMMARY:Risk window: Saudi barrels return and Brent falls below US$70: EIA' s expected return of most Gulf output to pre-conflict levels DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, tentative. Source: US Energy Information Administ ration. Source: World risk: Saudi barrels return and Brent falls below US$ 70 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-eacfe1d941 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-eacfe1d941 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:e-cusma-review@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270701 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270702 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: CUSMA / USMCA: first annual joint review after the July 2026 non-renewal DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Bears on our call on where the agr eement stands on 30 Sep 2027. Source: USTR\, statement on the USMCA joint review\, https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases /2026/july/ambassador-greer-issues-statement-usmca-joint-review https://st rature.net/calendar/#card=E-CUSMA-REVIEW URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=E-CUSMA-REVIEW TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-fc6119da6b@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270701 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270702 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Annual joint review of the North American trade ag reement (date not yet set) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: International Compliance P rofessionals Association. Source: World risk: United States: the midterms and a year of policy whiplash on trade\, the budget and the Fed https://st rature.net/calendar/#card=w-fc6119da6b URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-fc6119da6b TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-2c074aab16@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270715 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270716 SUMMARY:Signpost: US gasoline stays at or above US$3.50 a gallon to June 20 27: Q-028 publication cut-off DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: US gasoline stays at o r above US$3.50 a gallon to June 2027 https://strature.net/calendar/#card= w-2c074aab16 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-2c074aab16 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-21dbcfd94e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270722 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270723 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: MPC decision DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Bond.co.za. Source: World risk: The Reserve Bank raises South Africa's repo rate above 7.25% https:/ /strature.net/calendar/#card=w-21dbcfd94e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-21dbcfd94e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-aa6698416d@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270722 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270723 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: ECB monetary policy meeting\, day 2 DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: European Central Bank. Sour ce: World risk: The ECB raises rates a third time on energy inflation http s://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-aa6698416d URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-aa6698416d TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-0dbdaf9f89@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270725 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270726 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Company's last offer due (about) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Diario Financiero. Source: World risk: A strike cuts output at a large Chilean copper mine for a wee k or more https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0dbdaf9f89 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0dbdaf9f89 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-4440dff274@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270725 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270726 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Last date for the general election DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Wikipedia. Source: World ri sk: Greece's next general election gives no party a majority https://strat ure.net/calendar/#card=w-4440dff274 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4440dff274 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-f414a4299e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270726 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270727 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Latest date for the official election call (90 day s before\; Strature calculation) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: InfoLEG\, Ministerio de Jus ticia. Source: World risk: A Peronist candidate finishes first in Argentin a's first round on 24 Oct 2027 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-f414a 4299e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-f414a4299e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-53d7947742@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270729 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270730 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: MPC decision with Monetary Policy Report DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Bank of England. Source: Wo rld risk: The Bank of England raises rates on energy inflation https://str ature.net/calendar/#card=w-53d7947742 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-53d7947742 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-1373390a0d@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270730 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270731 SUMMARY:Risk window: Another mass crossing into Ceuta or Melilla: Moroccan Throne Day\, the date of the 2026 crossing (yearly) DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, tentative. Source: La Region. Source: World risk: Another mass crossing into Ceuta or Melilla https://strature.net/calendar /#card=w-1373390a0d URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-1373390a0d TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-1885ac3e15@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270731 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270801 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: EU economic sanctions on Russia expire unless rene wed DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Interfax. Source: World ris ks: Russia and Ukraine sign a general ceasefire on the current front line\ ; A veto lets an EU Russia sanctions regime lapse at its renewal date\; Th e EU switches on its ban on maritime services for Russian oil\; The US eas es sanctions on Russia's oil majors while the EU keeps its Russia sanction s https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-1885ac3e15 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-1885ac3e15 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-9728a949bb@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270731 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270801 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Fifth review available\, end-June 2027 performance criteria DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: International Monetary Fund . Source: World risk: Argentina needs another IMF waiver to keep its progr amme on track https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9728a949bb URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9728a949bb TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-6e2eb0b91c@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270731 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270801 SUMMARY:Signpost: Peru opens no first anchovy season in 2027: End of the sc ored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Peru opens no first an chovy season in 2027 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-6e2eb0b91c URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-6e2eb0b91c TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-980a08796d@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270731 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270801 SUMMARY:Signpost: El Niño's dry season forces the Panama Canal to cut draf ts again: Scored window ends DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: El Niño's dry season forces the Panama Canal to cut drafts again https://strature.net/calendar/ #card=w-980a08796d URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-980a08796d TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-9691b6ce43@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270801 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270802 SUMMARY:Risk window: A strike cuts output at a large Chilean copper mine fo r a week or more: Escondida Union No. 1 contract ends DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, tentative. Source: Diario Financiero. Source: Wor ld risk: A strike cuts output at a large Chilean copper mine for a week or more https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9691b6ce43 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9691b6ce43 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:e-ken-general@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270810 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270811 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Kenya general election DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: IEBC\, critical timelines f or the 2027 general election\, https://iebc.or.ke/news/?Critical_Timelines _for_the_2027GE= https://strature.net/calendar/#card=E-KEN-GENERAL URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=E-KEN-GENERAL TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-11527d6a57@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270810 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270811 SUMMARY:Risk window: Petrol stations run dry again in Vietnam's cities: Ngh i Son 48-day turnaround starts DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, declared. Source: Viet Nam News. Source: World ri sk: Petrol stations run dry again in Vietnam's cities https://strature.net /calendar/#card=w-11527d6a57 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-11527d6a57 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-2b2183c9a9@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270819 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270820 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Policy rate decision DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Norges Bank. Source: World risk: Norges Bank raises its policy rate to 4.75% or more https://strature .net/calendar/#card=w-2b2183c9a9 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-2b2183c9a9 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-a38e1bafb4@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270909 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270910 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: ECB monetary policy meeting\, day 2 DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: European Central Bank. Sour ce: World risk: The ECB raises rates a third time on energy inflation http s://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a38e1bafb4 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a38e1bafb4 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-d274db119d@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270915 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270916 SUMMARY:Risk window: Portugal's minority government falls: New legislative session\; a rejected censure may be re-tabled DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, tentative. Source: DNoticias. Source: World risk: Portugal's minority government falls https://strature.net/calendar/#card= w-d274db119d URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d274db119d TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-f78f9772aa@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270916 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270917 SUMMARY:Risk window: The Bank of England raises rates on energy inflation: MPC decision\; last in the window DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, declared. Source: Bank of England. Source: World risk: The Bank of England raises rates on energy inflation https://stratur e.net/calendar/#card=w-f78f9772aa URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-f78f9772aa TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-3ca930d303@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270923 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270924 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Decision and Monetary Policy Report DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Norges Bank. Source: World risk: Norges Bank raises its policy rate to 4.75% or more https://strature .net/calendar/#card=w-3ca930d303 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-3ca930d303 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-49bb1f8e46@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270923 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270924 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Norges Bank decision and Monetary Policy Report DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Norges Bank. Source: World risk: The krone gives back its 2026 gains against the euro https://stratur e.net/calendar/#card=w-49bb1f8e46 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-49bb1f8e46 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-35a9371d1c@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270926 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270927 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Lower Saxony state election DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Wahlrecht.de. Source: World risk: Europe's right turn: the RN in France\, the AfD in Germany\, Reform UK https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-35a9371d1c URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-35a9371d1c TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-4c7b71e346@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270928 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270929 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Last date for the general election (as summarised) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Wikipedia. Source: World r isk: Slovakia's opposition wins a seat majority at the 2027 election https ://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4c7b71e346 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4c7b71e346 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-719e0b1342@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270929 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270930 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: MPC decision DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Bond.co.za. Source: World risk: The Reserve Bank raises South Africa's repo rate above 7.25% https:/ /strature.net/calendar/#card=w-719e0b1342 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-719e0b1342 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:c-006-agreement@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270930 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271001 SUMMARY:Our call: On 30 September 2027\, where does the North American trad e agreement stand: rolling on unchanged\, escalating\, renewed\, abandoned by the US\, or something else? (our call 51%) DESCRIPTION:Our call\, declared. Our call 51%: Escalation short of withdraw al - tit-for-tat\, more bans\, 50% auto tariffs from January\, and a progr essive shrinking of tariff-free trade. Sealed before release\; scored when it resolves. Canada's exporters and its own export lender are arranging t hemselves around the agreement's yearly review clock. Source: Forecast reg ister\, C-006 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=C-006-AGREEMENT URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=C-006-AGREEMENT TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:f-0167@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270930 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271001 SUMMARY:Our call: By 30 September 2027\, will a US proclamation adding a ta riff of 50% or more on Canadian-made passenger vehicles be in force? (our call 40%) DESCRIPTION:Our call\, declared. Our call 40%. Sealed before release\; scor ed when it resolves. The brief asks whether the duties widen into autos or narrow in a deal\; this is the widening. Source: Forecast register\, C-00 6 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=F-0167 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=F-0167 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:f-0170@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270930 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271001 SUMMARY:Our call: By 30 September 2027\, will USTR open a Section 301 inves tigation of Canada's Online Streaming Act or its contribution regime? (our call 20%) DESCRIPTION:Our call\, declared. Our call 20%. Sealed before release\; scor ed when it resolves. A Section 301 investigation would put Canada's stream ing and digital rules under formal US trade pressure. Source: Forecast reg ister\, C-006 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=F-0170 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=F-0170 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:f-0172@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270930 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271001 SUMMARY:Our call: By 30 September 2027\, will a published US-Canada arrange ment lift the Section 338 tariffs and bans on Canadian goods? (our call 25 %) DESCRIPTION:Our call\, declared. Our call 25%. Sealed before release\; scor ed when it resolves. This is the trade war proving temporary: talks resume and the new tariffs fall. Source: Forecast register\, C-006 https://strat ure.net/calendar/#card=F-0172 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=F-0172 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:f-0173@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270930 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271001 SUMMARY:Our call: On 30 September 2027\, will US tariffs on Canadian goods still be above their 2024 level\, with neither government having restored the pre-2025 terms? (our call 92%) DESCRIPTION:Our call\, declared. Our call 92%. Sealed before release\; scor ed when it resolves. It tests whether the break with the old lockstep last s\; the row is scored again after 20 January 2029. Source: Forecast regist er\, C-006 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=F-0173 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=F-0173 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:f-0175@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270930 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271001 SUMMARY:Our call: By 30 September 2027\, will a US court rule that the Sect ion 338 tariffs on Canadian goods exceed the statute\, in whole or in part \, with the ruling not stayed? (our call 12%) DESCRIPTION:Our call\, declared. Our call 12%. Sealed before release\; scor ed when it resolves. A court is one way out of the duty without a deal\; i f a court strikes it\, the refund goes to whoever entered the goods. Sourc e: Forecast register\, C-006 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=F-0175 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=F-0175 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:f-0176@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270930 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271001 SUMMARY:Our call: By 30 September 2027\, will a published US-Canada arrange ment commit Canada to match US tariffs on third countries in named sectors ? (our call 7%) DESCRIPTION:Our call\, declared. Our call 7%. Sealed before release\; score d when it resolves. This is Fortress North America: restored access bought by aligning Canada's outside tariffs with US policy. Source: Forecast reg ister\, C-006 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=F-0176 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=F-0176 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:f-0177@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270930 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271001 SUMMARY:Our call: Over the twelve months to 30 September 2027\, will Canada 's share of US crude imports fall while Venezuela's rises? (our call 40%) DESCRIPTION:Our call\, declared. Our call 40%. Sealed before release\; scor ed when it resolves. It tests whether Venezuelan heavy crude displaces Can adian crude in US refineries\, Canada's main outlet. Source: Forecast regi ster\, C-006 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=F-0177 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=F-0177 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:f-0178@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270930 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271001 SUMMARY:Our call: By 30 September 2027\, will US armed forces take a milita ry action on Canadian territory\, or in waters Canada claims\, without Can ada's consent? (our call 2%) DESCRIPTION:Our call\, declared. Our call 2%. Sealed before release\; score d when it resolves. The Prime Minister calls it an extreme tail risk that Canada has prepared for\; the brief puts a number on it. Source: Forecast register\, C-006 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=F-0178 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=F-0178 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:e-cbam-surrender@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270930 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271001 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: EU carbon border charge (CBAM): first annual decla ration and certificate surrender\, for 2026 imports DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: European Commission\, CBAM questions and answers\, https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/document/dow nload/013fa763-5dce-4726-a204-69fec04d5ce2_en https://strature.net/calenda r/#card=E-CBAM-SURRENDER URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=E-CBAM-SURRENDER TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-10b4ca02fd@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270930 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271001 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: First annual declaration and surrender\, for 2026 imports DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: International Carbon Action Partnership. Source: World risk: The EU puts off its carbon border bill\, or a big partner hits back https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-10b4ca02 fd URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-10b4ca02fd TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-3cd3858bc3@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270930 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271001 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Ban on Russian pipeline gas under long-term contra cts\, if storage is on track DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: European Parliament Legisla tive Observatory. Source: World risk: The EU delays its ban on Russian gas because of the Gulf shock https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-3cd3858bc 3 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-3cd3858bc3 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-97d64af975@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270930 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271001 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: EU ban on Russian pipeline gas under long-term con tracts (31 Oct 2027 if storage is short) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Interfax. Source: World ris k: Druzhba oil to Hungary and Slovakia stops again for two weeks or more h ttps://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-97d64af975 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-97d64af975 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-9882723b28@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270930 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271001 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Ban on Russian pipeline gas under long-term contra cts (to 31 Oct 2027 if storage is short) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Interfax. Source: World ris k: The EU's ban on Russian LNG under long-term contracts bites from 1 Janu ary 2027 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9882723b28 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9882723b28 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-a4fb2e31f3@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270930 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271001 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: EU ban on Russian pipeline gas under long-term con tracts begins if storage targets are on track\; 1 November 2027 at the lat est DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: European Parliament Legisla tive Observatory. Source: World risk: Russia's war reaches NATO's eastern flank https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a4fb2e31f3 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a4fb2e31f3 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-b582542d2e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270930 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271001 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Italy's autumn deficit notification (by) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Istat. Source: World risk: Italy's 2026 deficit misses 3% and the EU procedure stays open https://str ature.net/calendar/#card=w-b582542d2e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b582542d2e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-be62eea0c1@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270930 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271001 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Q4 2027 tariff announced DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: SP Group. Source: World ri sk: Singapore's regulated power tariff jumps more than 10% in a quarter on gas costs https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-be62eea0c1 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-be62eea0c1 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-e6026ee931@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270930 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271001 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: End of fiscal 2027 (debt projected at 69.4%) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Thai Examiner. Source: Worl d risk: Thailand raises its 70% public-debt ceiling https://strature.net/c alendar/#card=w-e6026ee931 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e6026ee931 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-27313d21@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270930 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271001 SUMMARY:Signpost: The C-006 scenarios resolve: escalation short of withdraw al 51%\, renewal 10%\; our estimates\, scored when they resolve. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Canada (US tar iffs and Canada) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-27313D21 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-27313D21 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-effaed9e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270930 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271001 SUMMARY:Signpost: The C-006 scenarios resolve: escalation short of withdraw al 51%\; US tariffs still above their 2024 level 92%\; our estimates\, sco red when they resolve. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: United States of America (US tariffs and Canada) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG- EFFAED9E URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-EFFAED9E TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-30f4f7f556@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270930 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271001 SUMMARY:Signpost: The US opens a trade case against EU digital rules: Strat ure forecast F-0170 (Section 301 case on Canada's Online Streaming Act) re solves. Strature forecast F-0170: 20% (1 Oct 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: The US opens a trade c ase against EU digital rules https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-30f4f7f 556 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-30f4f7f556 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-374e6a8c71@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270930 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271001 SUMMARY:Signpost: The US tariff wall around Canada and Mexico stays up or g rows: Strature C-006 forecasts resolve DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: The US tariff wall aro und Canada and Mexico stays up or grows https://strature.net/calendar/#car d=w-374e6a8c71 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-374e6a8c71 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-52c8aa1e64@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270930 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271001 SUMMARY:Signpost: Venezuelan heavy crude takes US import share from Canada: F-0177's twelve-month window ends. Strature forecast F-0177: 40% (1 Oct 2 026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Venezuelan heavy crude takes US import share from Canada https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-5 2c8aa1e64 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-52c8aa1e64 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-5ee466ef45@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270930 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271001 SUMMARY:Signpost: USTR opens a Section 301 investigation of Canada's Online Streaming Act: F-0170 resolves. Strature forecast F-0170: 20% (1 Oct 2026 ) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: USTR opens a Section 3 01 investigation of Canada's Online Streaming Act https://strature.net/cal endar/#card=w-5ee466ef45 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-5ee466ef45 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-6b6882d0e3@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270930 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271001 SUMMARY:Signpost: The US raises its tariff on South Korean cars above 15%: F-0167 resolves (US 50% tariff on Canadian vehicles). Strature forecast F- 0167: 40% (1 Oct 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: The US raises its tari ff on South Korean cars above 15% https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-6b 6882d0e3 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-6b6882d0e3 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-995deac3f9@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270930 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271001 SUMMARY:Signpost: United States: the midterms and a year of policy whiplash on trade\, the budget and the Fed: Strature C-006 agreement question and F-0175 resolve. Strature forecast F-0175: 12% (1 Oct 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: United States: the mid terms and a year of policy whiplash on trade\, the budget and the Fed http s://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-995deac3f9 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-995deac3f9 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-afc335afe6@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270930 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271001 SUMMARY:Signpost: US armed forces act on Canadian territory or in waters Ca nada claims\, without Canada's consent: F-0178 resolves. Strature forecast F-0178: 2% (1 Oct 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: US armed forces act on Canadian territory or in waters Canada claims\, without Canada's consent https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-afc335afe6 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-afc335afe6 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-910d924942@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270930 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271001 SUMMARY:Risk window: River heat forces three or more French reactors to sto p or cut output at once in summer 2027: Scored window closes DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, declared. Source: IMEP-CNRS site. Source: World r isk: River heat forces three or more French reactors to stop or cut output at once in summer 2027 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-910d924942 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-910d924942 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-7a4a753bcc@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271001 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271002 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Melt-and-pour data begins to inform quota distribu tion DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Peacock Tariff Consulting. Source: World risk: A partner takes the EU's new steel quotas to the WTO\ , or hits back https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-7a4a753bcc URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-7a4a753bcc TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-36dad55177@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271009 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271010 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Hybrid threats regime expires unless renewed DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Council of the EU via EEAS (EU Delegation to Ukraine). Source: World risk: A veto lets an EU Russia s anctions regime lapse at its renewal date https://strature.net/calendar/#c ard=w-36dad55177 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-36dad55177 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-b60fdd7761@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271014 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271015 SUMMARY:Signpost: US armed forces act on Canadian territory or in waters Ca nada claims\, without Canada's consent: F-0178 scored. Strature forecast F -0178: 2% (1 Oct 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: US armed forces act on Canadian territory or in waters Canada claims\, without Canada's consent https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b60fdd7761 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b60fdd7761 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-48ae602e01@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271024 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271025 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: First round of the presidential election (fourth S unday of October\, Electoral Code art. 53)\; Milei's re-election bid\, wit h more than US$25bn of maturities in late 2027 DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: InfoLEG\, Ministerio de Jus ticia. Source: World risk: Argentina's China swap line is ended\, cut or c alled https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-48ae602e01 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-48ae602e01 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-8e130ccc92@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271024 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271025 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: General election DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: InfoLEG\, Ministerio de Jus ticia. Source: World risk: A strike halts Gran Rosario grain shipments for three days or more https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-8e130ccc92 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-8e130ccc92 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-9739df0a59@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271024 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271025 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: General election\, a test of dollarisation as in 2 025 DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: InfoLEG\, Ministerio de Jus ticia. Source: World risk: Argentina needs another IMF waiver to keep its programme on track https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9739df0a59 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9739df0a59 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-e7c8a3404f@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271024 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271025 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: First round\, president and Congress DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: InfoLEG\, Ministerio de Jus ticia. Source: World risk: A Peronist candidate finishes first in Argentin a's first round on 24 Oct 2027 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e7c8a 3404f URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e7c8a3404f TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-0657a2d872@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271025 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271026 SUMMARY:Signpost: Cross-border bank consolidation in Germany: a foreign ban k takes control of a large German bank: Scored window ends DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Cross-border bank cons olidation in Germany: a foreign bank takes control of a large German bank https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0657a2d872 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0657a2d872 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-1f34dfa23f@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271025 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271026 SUMMARY:Signpost: A month-long stop in EU copper smelting or refining: Scor ed window ends DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: A month-long stop in E U copper smelting or refining https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-1f34df a23f URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-1f34dfa23f TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-22d6ea46c2@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271025 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271026 SUMMARY:Signpost: Ransomware halts a major port\, hospital network or pipel ine for three days or more: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Ransomware halts a maj or port\, hospital network or pipeline for three days or more https://stra ture.net/calendar/#card=w-22d6ea46c2 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-22d6ea46c2 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-664021e96f@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271025 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271026 SUMMARY:Signpost: Russia puts another Western company's Russian business un der state control: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Russia puts another We stern company's Russian business under state control https://strature.net/ calendar/#card=w-664021e96f URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-664021e96f TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-7ddfe5f32e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271025 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271026 SUMMARY:Signpost: Drug-gang violence halts work at the port of Antwerp for a day: Scored window ends DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Drug-gang violence hal ts work at the port of Antwerp for a day https://strature.net/calendar/#ca rd=w-7ddfe5f32e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-7ddfe5f32e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-961bf983d9@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271025 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271026 SUMMARY:Signpost: The US restricts foreign access to its AI models: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: The US restricts forei gn access to its AI models https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-961bf983d 9 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-961bf983d9 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-a54ed3bb4c@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271025 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271026 SUMMARY:Signpost: Allies publicly blame China for a new break-in to critica l infrastructure: Scored window ends DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Allies publicly blame China for a new break-in to critical infrastructure https://strature.net/c alendar/#card=w-a54ed3bb4c URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a54ed3bb4c TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-af228e126e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271025 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271026 SUMMARY:Signpost: The US raises its Section 301 duty on Brazil or strips it s exemptions: Scored window closes DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: Office of the US Trade Representat ive. Source: World risk: The US raises its Section 301 duty on Brazil or s trips its exemptions https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-af228e126e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-af228e126e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-d64a0da5a7@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271025 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271026 SUMMARY:Signpost: The yuan falls back past 6.85 per US dollar: Scored windo w ends DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: The yuan falls back pa st 6.85 per US dollar https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d64a0da5a7 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d64a0da5a7 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-df32765956@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271025 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271026 SUMMARY:Signpost: A cyberattack halts a UAE port\, airport or energy site f or a day: End of this card's window (Strature's choice) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: A cyberattack halts a UAE port\, airport or energy site for a day https://strature.net/calendar/ #card=w-df32765956 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-df32765956 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-e012e355bc@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271025 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271026 SUMMARY:Signpost: Russia and China sign a binding Power of Siberia 2 (Power of Baikal) supply contract with a price: Scored window ends DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Russia and China sign a binding Power of Siberia 2 (Power of Baikal) supply contract with a pric e https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e012e355bc URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e012e355bc TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-e80c0771bb@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271025 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271026 SUMMARY:Signpost: The US raises its tariff on EU cars above the 15% deal ra te: Scored window ends DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: The US raises its tari ff on EU cars above the 15% deal rate https://strature.net/calendar/#card= w-e80c0771bb URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e80c0771bb TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-e8131d8e5c@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271025 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271026 SUMMARY:Signpost: Poland bars Chinese-made cars beyond its military sites: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Poland bars Chinese-ma de cars beyond its military sites https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e8 131d8e5c URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e8131d8e5c TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-eca4f2643b@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271025 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271026 SUMMARY:Signpost: Irish troops deploy without a UN mandate: Scored window e nds DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Irish troops deploy wi thout a UN mandate https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-eca4f2643b URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-eca4f2643b TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-f932897484@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271025 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271026 SUMMARY:Signpost: Russia keeps foreign messaging services blocked nationwid e: Scored window ends DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Russia keeps foreign m essaging services blocked nationwide https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w -f932897484 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-f932897484 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-fac7d040e7@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271025 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271026 SUMMARY:Signpost: China takes a formal measure against Panama over its cana l ports: Scored window ends DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: China takes a formal m easure against Panama over its canal ports https://strature.net/calendar/# card=w-fac7d040e7 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-fac7d040e7 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-ce3cd86fbd@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271025 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271026 SUMMARY:Risk window: The 30-year gilt yield closes above 6%: Window ends DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, declared. Source: World risk: The 30-year gilt yi eld closes above 6% https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-ce3cd86fbd URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-ce3cd86fbd TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-d24f8a471f@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271025 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271026 SUMMARY:Risk window: England's drought carries into 2027 with a ban on non- essential water use: Window ends DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, declared. Source: World risk: England's drought c arries into 2027 with a ban on non-essential water use https://strature.ne t/calendar/#card=w-d24f8a471f URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d24f8a471f TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-02c3a6bb77@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271027 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271028 SUMMARY:Signpost: Kazakhstan's uranium output for 2026 falls short of its t arget: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Kazakhstan's uranium o utput for 2026 falls short of its target https://strature.net/calendar/#ca rd=w-02c3a6bb77 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-02c3a6bb77 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-1616d98f69@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271027 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271028 SUMMARY:Signpost: Rotating power cuts return to Luzon in the El Niño dry s eason: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Rotating power cuts re turn to Luzon in the El Niño dry season https://strature.net/calendar/#ca rd=w-1616d98f69 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-1616d98f69 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-193a8eb7e2@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271027 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271028 SUMMARY:Signpost: A rating agency cuts Finland's credit rating again: End o f the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: A rating agency cuts F inland's credit rating again https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-193a8eb 7e2 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-193a8eb7e2 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-1b17fb50b3@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271027 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271028 SUMMARY:Signpost: Kazakhstan moves to seize assets over the Kashagan sulphu r fine: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Kazakhstan moves to se ize assets over the Kashagan sulphur fine https://strature.net/calendar/#c ard=w-1b17fb50b3 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-1b17fb50b3 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-20ad45dab3@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271027 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271028 SUMMARY:Signpost: Romania limits power to consumers in a supply crisis: Sco red window ends DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: Economica.net. Source: World risk: Romania limits power to consumers in a supply crisis https://strature.net /calendar/#card=w-20ad45dab3 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-20ad45dab3 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-312b639b3f@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271027 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271028 SUMMARY:Signpost: A rating agency cuts Romania below investment grade: Scor ed window ends DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: Adevărul. Source: World risk: A r ating agency cuts Romania below investment grade https://strature.net/cale ndar/#card=w-312b639b3f URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-312b639b3f TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-47753dc7bd@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271027 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271028 SUMMARY:Signpost: Half a million Portuguese customers lose power at once: E nd of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Half a million Portugu ese customers lose power at once https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-477 53dc7bd URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-47753dc7bd TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-506546cb04@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271027 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271028 SUMMARY:Signpost: A parts shortage stops a Czech car line for two weeks: Sc ored window ends DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: Prague Daily News (Automotive Indu stry Association data). Source: World risk: A parts shortage stops a Czech car line for two weeks https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-506546cb04 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-506546cb04 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-5e1db14400@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271027 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271028 SUMMARY:Signpost: Greece's next general election gives no party a majority: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Greece's next general election gives no party a majority https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-5 e1db14400 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-5e1db14400 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-6379616f04@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271027 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271028 SUMMARY:Signpost: A rating agency cuts Hungary below investment grade: Scor ed window ends DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: Daily News Hungary. Source: World risk: A rating agency cuts Hungary below investment grade https://strature .net/calendar/#card=w-6379616f04 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-6379616f04 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-666bb491dc@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271027 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271028 SUMMARY:Signpost: The US puts a tariff on Danish goods over Greenland: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: The US puts a tariff o n Danish goods over Greenland https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-666bb4 91dc URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-666bb491dc TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-7c32a1d27c@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271027 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271028 SUMMARY:Signpost: Finland cuts power to consumers for lack of electricity: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Finland cuts power to consumers for lack of electricity https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-7c 32a1d27c URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-7c32a1d27c TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-7d10aaeaf3@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271027 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271028 SUMMARY:Signpost: Denmark's economy shrinks two quarters in a row: End of t he scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Denmark's economy shri nks two quarters in a row https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-7d10aaeaf3 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-7d10aaeaf3 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-864fe2b7eb@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271027 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271028 SUMMARY:Signpost: The Czech central bank lifts its main rate to 4.25% or hi gher: Scored window ends DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: Czech National Bank. Source: World risk: The Czech central bank lifts its main rate to 4.25% or higher https ://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-864fe2b7eb URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-864fe2b7eb TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-8da181d870@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271027 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271028 SUMMARY:Signpost: Brussels freezes a whole Czech EU funding programme over the conflict of interest: Scored window ends DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: Around Prague. Source: World risk: Brussels freezes a whole Czech EU funding programme over the conflict of interest https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-8da181d870 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-8da181d870 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-96e4f140a6@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271027 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271028 SUMMARY:Signpost: Brussels cuts Portugal's final recovery-fund payment: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: European Commission / Council of t he EU. Source: World risk: Brussels cuts Portugal's final recovery-fund pa yment https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-96e4f140a6 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-96e4f140a6 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-9b505c726d@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271027 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271028 SUMMARY:Signpost: Drone reports shut a Danish airport again: End of the sco red window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Drone reports shut a D anish airport again https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9b505c726d URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9b505c726d TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-a09196ee90@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271027 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271028 SUMMARY:Signpost: The Philippine central bank raises its policy rate again: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: The Philippine central bank raises its policy rate again https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a 09196ee90 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a09196ee90 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-a2f64a5ef7@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271027 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271028 SUMMARY:Signpost: The Philippines declares a new national energy emergency over fuel: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: The Philippines declar es a new national energy emergency over fuel https://strature.net/calendar /#card=w-a2f64a5ef7 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a2f64a5ef7 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-b2dea2df07@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271027 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271028 SUMMARY:Signpost: Romania's new government falls within a year: Scored wind ow ends DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: constitutiaromaniei.ro. Source: Wo rld risk: Romania's new government falls within a year https://strature.ne t/calendar/#card=w-b2dea2df07 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b2dea2df07 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-bb08fdd3d6@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271027 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271028 SUMMARY:Signpost: Jet fuel limits hit a Portuguese airport: End of the scor ed window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: European Commission\, DG Energy. S ource: World risk: Jet fuel limits hit a Portuguese airport https://stratu re.net/calendar/#card=w-bb08fdd3d6 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-bb08fdd3d6 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-d0eca075f4@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271027 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271028 SUMMARY:Signpost: Prague caps household power or gas prices again: Scored w indow ends DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Prague caps household power or gas prices again https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d0eca075f4 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d0eca075f4 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-d425a1c75d@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271027 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271028 SUMMARY:Signpost: A major agency cuts Slovakia's credit rating: Scored wind ow ends DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: A major agency cuts Sl ovakia's credit rating https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d425a1c75d URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d425a1c75d TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-da2f6249fb@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271027 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271028 SUMMARY:Signpost: Hungary ends the Russian contract for the Paks II nuclear project: Scored window ends DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: Daily News Hungary (Reuters). Sour ce: World risk: Hungary ends the Russian contract for the Paks II nuclear project https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-da2f6249fb URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-da2f6249fb TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-da40e6fe3b@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271027 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271028 SUMMARY:Signpost: Portugal's minority government falls: End of the scored w indow DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: Assembleia da Republica. Source: W orld risk: Portugal's minority government falls https://strature.net/calen dar/#card=w-da40e6fe3b URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-da40e6fe3b TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-e3f5fd6f22@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271027 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271028 SUMMARY:Signpost: Another Greek-owned or Greek-flagged ship is hit or seize d near Hormuz: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Another Greek-owned or Greek-flagged ship is hit or seized near Hormuz https://strature.net/cale ndar/#card=w-e3f5fd6f22 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e3f5fd6f22 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-f9619f51e4@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271027 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271028 SUMMARY:Signpost: Slovakia's opposition wins a seat majority at the 2027 el ection: Scored window ends DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Slovakia's opposition wins a seat majority at the 2027 election https://strature.net/calendar/#c ard=w-f9619f51e4 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-f9619f51e4 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-fd20ad1425@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271027 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271028 SUMMARY:Signpost: The EU or the US sanctions a refinery in Kazakhstan over Russian oil: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: The EU or the US sanct ions a refinery in Kazakhstan over Russian oil https://strature.net/calend ar/#card=w-fd20ad1425 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-fd20ad1425 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:q-021@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Our call: By 31 October 2027\, will a fund we track commit C$1bn or more to a new Canadian build\, with or without a government term\, and if not\, what moves instead? (our call 27%) DESCRIPTION:Our call\, declared. Our call 27%: a standstill. Sealed before release\; scored when it resolves. Projects with a published or signed gov ernment term went ahead 6 times in 15\, against 12 in 58 without: a signal \, not a guarantee. Source: Forecast register\, Q-021 https://strature.net /calendar/#card=Q-021 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=Q-021 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-08efa03292@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Signpost: Australia sends a warship to the Strait of Hormuz: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Australia sends a wars hip to the Strait of Hormuz https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-08efa032 92 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-08efa03292 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-0ad8355357@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Signpost: A strike cuts output at a large Chilean copper mine for a week or more: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: Diario Financiero. Source: World r isk: A strike cuts output at a large Chilean copper mine for a week or mor e https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0ad8355357 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0ad8355357 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-0b0172c32e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Signpost: A gas shortfall forces two weeks or more of gas rationing in Colombia: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: ABC Economía. Source: World risk: A gas shortfall forces two weeks or more of gas rationing in Colombia htt ps://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0b0172c32e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0b0172c32e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-0f46fcce54@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Signpost: A Houthi attack hits Egypt or Egyptian forces: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: A Houthi attack hits E gypt or Egyptian forces https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0f46fcce54 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0f46fcce54 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-153e042a54@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Signpost: El Niño forces programmed power cuts to homes in Bogotá 's region or the Caribbean: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: La FM. Source: World risk: El Niñ o forces programmed power cuts to homes in Bogotá's region or the Caribbe an https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-153e042a54 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-153e042a54 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-180de44507@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Signpost: The US puts new sanctions on officials over Hong Kong: En d of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: Congressional-Executive Commission on China. Source: World risk: The US puts new sanctions on officials over Hong Kong https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-180de44507 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-180de44507 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-1915f139a9@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Signpost: Thailand raises its 70% public-debt ceiling: End of the s cored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Thailand raises its 70 % public-debt ceiling https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-1915f139a9 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-1915f139a9 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-203d7194a6@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Signpost: Egypt cuts gas to its fertiliser plants for two weeks: En d of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Egypt cuts gas to its fertiliser plants for two weeks https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-203d 7194a6 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-203d7194a6 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-255f991039@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Signpost: Hong Kong's airport has to ration jet fuel: End of the sc ored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: Euronext. Source: World risk: Hong Kong's airport has to ration jet fuel https://strature.net/calendar/#card =w-255f991039 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-255f991039 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-29e1ad6931@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Signpost: The Egyptian pound loses a tenth of its value within thre e months: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: The Egyptian pound los es a tenth of its value within three months https://strature.net/calendar/ #card=w-29e1ad6931 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-29e1ad6931 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-3c90c29e29@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Signpost: Bangladesh leaves the LDC group on 24 Nov 2026 without an extension: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Bangladesh leaves the LDC group on 24 Nov 2026 without an extension https://strature.net/calenda r/#card=w-3c90c29e29 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-3c90c29e29 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-40e0395173@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Signpost: The US adds a second Section 301 tariff on most Vietnames e goods: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: The US adds a second S ection 301 tariff on most Vietnamese goods https://strature.net/calendar/# card=w-40e0395173 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-40e0395173 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-42d006e75e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Signpost: The DA leaves South Africa's Government of National Unity : End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: The DA leaves South Af rica's Government of National Unity https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w- 42d006e75e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-42d006e75e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-45153afd8a@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Signpost: Bangladesh sheds 2\,000 MW of power at peak again: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Bangladesh sheds 2\,00 0 MW of power at peak again https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-45153afd 8a URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-45153afd8a TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-48a6fb4fbd@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Signpost: The US removes South Africa from AGOA's duty-free list: E nd of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: The US removes South A frica from AGOA's duty-free list https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-48a 6fb4fbd URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-48a6fb4fbd TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-49e6d79ce0@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Signpost: Pakistani forces fight the Houthis in Yemen: End of the s cored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Pakistani forces fight the Houthis in Yemen https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-49e6d79ce0 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-49e6d79ce0 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-4fdcc40dc8@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Signpost: The iron ore price averages below US$80 a tonne for a mon th: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: The iron ore price ave rages below US$80 a tonne for a month https://strature.net/calendar/#card= w-4fdcc40dc8 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-4fdcc40dc8 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-50a93de977@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Signpost: The US puts a tariff of 10% or more on refined copper fro m Chile: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: Federal Register (The White House) . Source: World risk: The US puts a tariff of 10% or more on refined coppe r from Chile https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-50a93de977 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-50a93de977 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-50c22632e6@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Signpost: US forces join a lethal strike on an armed group inside C olombia: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: France 24. Source: World risk: US forces join a lethal strike on an armed group inside Colombia https://stra ture.net/calendar/#card=w-50c22632e6 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-50c22632e6 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-5665ffc738@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Signpost: Colombia loses its last investment-grade credit rating: E nd of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: Forbes Colombia. Source: World ris k: Colombia loses its last investment-grade credit rating https://strature .net/calendar/#card=w-5665ffc738 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-5665ffc738 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-58e23a1ddb@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Signpost: Thailand's state-managed diesel price reaches 50 baht a l itre: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Thailand's state-manag ed diesel price reaches 50 baht a litre https://strature.net/calendar/#car d=w-58e23a1ddb URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-58e23a1ddb TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-6a0561ba02@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Signpost: Diesel in Santiago reaches 1\,800 pesos a litre: End of t he scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: The Rio Times. Source: World risk: Diesel in Santiago reaches 1\,800 pesos a litre https://strature.net/cale ndar/#card=w-6a0561ba02 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-6a0561ba02 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-8d46431a8b@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Signpost: A new break in the Camisea pipeline cuts gas to Lima: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: A new break in the Cam isea pipeline cuts gas to Lima https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-8d464 31a8b URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-8d46431a8b TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-907c5926af@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Signpost: The Hong Kong dollar hits the weak end of its band and th e HKMA buys it: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: Hong Kong Monetary Authority. Sour ce: World risk: The Hong Kong dollar hits the weak end of its band and the HKMA buys it https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-907c5926af URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-907c5926af TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-9308a9740e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Signpost: Northern Vietnam runs short of power in the 2027 dry seas on: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Northern Vietnam runs short of power in the 2027 dry season https://strature.net/calendar/#card= w-9308a9740e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-9308a9740e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-980d096f5a@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Signpost: No UAE state investor closes a C$1bn deal in Canada by Oc tober 2027: Q-021 forecasts F-0151 to F-0155 resolve\; end of this card's window. Strature forecast F-0151: 16% (28 Sep 2026)\; Strature forecast F- 0152: 27% (28 Sep 2026)\; Strature forecast F-0153: 16% (28 Sep 2026)\; St rature forecast F-0154: 14% (28 Sep 2026)\; Strature forecast F-0155: 27% (28 Sep 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: No UAE state investor closes a C$1bn deal in Canada by October 2027 https://strature.net/calenda r/#card=w-980d096f5a URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-980d096f5a TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-a0649ca746@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Signpost: Pakistan's petrol or diesel stocks fall below 10 days: En d of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Pakistan's petrol or d iesel stocks fall below 10 days https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a064 9ca746 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a0649ca746 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-a1b10e5fc6@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Signpost: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lifts the OCR to 3.50% or more: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: The Reserve Bank of Ne w Zealand lifts the OCR to 3.50% or more https://strature.net/calendar/#ca rd=w-a1b10e5fc6 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-a1b10e5fc6 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-b74603acf8@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Signpost: Malaysia raises its subsidised RON95 petrol price to RM2. 20 a litre or more: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Malaysia raises its su bsidised RON95 petrol price to RM2.20 a litre or more https://strature.net /calendar/#card=w-b74603acf8 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b74603acf8 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-b82978aa2e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Signpost: The US adds an excess-capacity tariff on Malaysian electr onics\, machinery or other named goods: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: The US adds an excess- capacity tariff on Malaysian electronics\, machinery or other named goods https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b82978aa2e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b82978aa2e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-c39f678a91@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Signpost: A First Nation's court challenge keeps the Pacific Link l isting in question: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: A First Nation's court challenge keeps the Pacific Link listing in question https://strature.net /calendar/#card=w-c39f678a91 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-c39f678a91 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-d07387dcc2@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Signpost: South Africa's regulated diesel price reaches R35 a litre : End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: South Africa's regulat ed diesel price reaches R35 a litre https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w- d07387dcc2 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d07387dcc2 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-db1b51497c@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Signpost: Heavy fighting resumes on the Thai-Cambodian border: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Heavy fighting resumes on the Thai-Cambodian border https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-db1b51 497c URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-db1b51497c TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-e36547370c@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Signpost: The Reserve Bank raises South Africa's repo rate above 7. 25%: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: The Reserve Bank raise s South Africa's repo rate above 7.25% https://strature.net/calendar/#card =w-e36547370c URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e36547370c TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-e64f1de7c0@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Signpost: Chile's central bank raises its policy rate above 4.5%: E nd of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: BioBioChile. Source: World risk: C hile's central bank raises its policy rate above 4.5% https://strature.net /calendar/#card=w-e64f1de7c0 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e64f1de7c0 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-fe9f319663@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Signpost: Petrol stations run dry again in Vietnam's cities: End of the scored window DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Petrol stations run dr y again in Vietnam's cities https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-fe9f3196 63 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-fe9f319663 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-00a658c536@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Risk window: Shipping through the Singapore Strait stops for 48 hou rs or more: Window ends DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, declared. Source: World risk: Shipping through th e Singapore Strait stops for 48 hours or more https://strature.net/calenda r/#card=w-00a658c536 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-00a658c536 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-02ed325bef@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Risk window: A Japan-China encounter at sea or in the air ends in a collision\, gunfire or injury: Window ends DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, declared. Source: World risk: A Japan-China encou nter at sea or in the air ends in a collision\, gunfire or injury https:// strature.net/calendar/#card=w-02ed325bef URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-02ed325bef TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-406f05eeb0@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271031 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271101 SUMMARY:Risk window: The US raises its tariff on South Korean cars above 15 %: End of this risk's window DESCRIPTION:Risk window\, declared. Source: Federal Register. Source: World risk: The US raises its tariff on South Korean cars above 15% https://str ature.net/calendar/#card=w-406f05eeb0 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-406f05eeb0 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-b6617c22ae@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Latest date for the pipeline ban DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: European Parliament Legisla tive Observatory. Source: World risk: The EU delays its ban on Russian gas because of the Gulf shock https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b6617c22a e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b6617c22ae TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-b2888e74ef@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271121 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271122 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Runoff\, if needed (within 30 days) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Wikipedia. Source: World r isk: A Peronist candidate finishes first in Argentina's first round on 24 Oct 2027 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b2888e74ef URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-b2888e74ef TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-89f3fb351a@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271202 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271203 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: EU high-risk rules for Annex III uses apply under Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 (outside the window) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: European Commission. Source : World risk: The US opens a trade case against EU digital rules https://s trature.net/calendar/#card=w-89f3fb351a URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-89f3fb351a TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-0a0f249fb1@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271222 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271223 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Last date for the general election DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Wikipedia. Source: World ri sk: Italy votes before late October 2027\, the first time under the new ma jority-bonus law https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0a0f249fb1 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0a0f249fb1 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-887936bed4@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271230 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20271231 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: EUDR applies to certain palm oil derivatives (Dele gated Regulation (EU) 2026/2102) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: European Commission. Source : World risk: Indonesian fire haze returns to Singapore at unhealthy level s in 2027 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-887936bed4 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-887936bed4 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:f-0174@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20280101 SUMMARY:Our call: Will Canada's real GDP fall in two consecutive quarters a t any point up to the fourth quarter of 2027\, on Statistics Canada's firs t release? (our call 25%) DESCRIPTION:Our call\, declared. Our call 25%. Sealed before release\; scor ed when it resolves. Two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP is the r ecession test this forecast uses\, settled by Statistics Canada's first re lease. Source: Forecast register\, C-006 https://strature.net/calendar/#ca rd=F-0174 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=F-0174 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-5a948fe857@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20280101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Escondida Union No. 3 contract ends (outside the w indow) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Revista Digital Minera RED IMIN. Source: World risk: A strike cuts output at a large Chilean copper m ine for a week or more https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-5a948fe857 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-5a948fe857 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-5ac6be833a@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20280101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: EU target to end all remaining Russian oil imports \; no legal act yet DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Reed Smith. Source: World risk: Druzhba oil to Hungary and Slovakia stops again for two weeks or mor e https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-5ac6be833a URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-5ac6be833a TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-7161bbc401@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20280101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Russian decree restricting exports to the US expir es unless extended DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: US SEC EDGAR. Source: World risk: Russia halts enriched uranium shipments to the US before the US ban takes full effect https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-7161bbc401 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-7161bbc401 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-80be1dc7c4@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20280101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Annex I-C metal-derivative rate schedule ends DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Federal Register. Source: W orld risk: The US tariff wall around Canada and Mexico stays up or grows h ttps://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-80be1dc7c4 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-80be1dc7c4 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-d82967368e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20280101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: End of the 2% update ceiling in RDL 29/2026 DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: BOE no. 249. Source: World risk: Spain's next government caps rents nationwide or curbs foreign home buyers https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d82967368e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d82967368e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-f8afe3b832@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20280101 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Ukraine Facility and the 2021-2027 MFF end DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: European Commission. Source : World risk: No EU legal act funds Ukraine for 2028 by late October 2027 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-f8afe3b832 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-f8afe3b832 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-3354ad8689@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20280101 SUMMARY:Signpost: Canada's real GDP falls for two quarters in a row by the fourth quarter of 2027: F-0174 resolves on the register (last quarter publ ished by then: Q3 2027). Strature forecast F-0174: 25% (1 Oct 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: Canada's real GDP fall s for two quarters in a row by the fourth quarter of 2027 https://strature .net/calendar/#card=w-3354ad8689 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-3354ad8689 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-0f2b38a155@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20280101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20280102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: NTUF's recommended date for Congress to act DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: National Taxpayers Union F oundation. Source: World risk: A US debt-limit standoff with Treasury's ca sh projected to run out within three months https://strature.net/calendar/ #card=w-0f2b38a155 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0f2b38a155 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-151e12f61c@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20280101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20280102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: New MFF due to start DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Council of the EU. Source: World risk: EU leaders miss the deadline for the 2028-2034 budget https:// strature.net/calendar/#card=w-151e12f61c URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-151e12f61c TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-59bc495564@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20280101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20280102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: US waivers for Russian LEU end\, at the latest DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: US Government Publishing Of fice. Source: World risk: Russia halts enriched uranium shipments to the U S before the US ban takes full effect https://strature.net/calendar/#card= w-59bc495564 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-59bc495564 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-afad76230e@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20280101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20280102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Proposed step to 30% (outside the window) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Federal Register (The Whit e House). Source: World risk: The US puts a tariff of 10% or more on refin ed copper from Chile https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-afad76230e URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-afad76230e TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-c8bd111f14@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20280101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20280102 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Downstream extension to about 180 products\, if ad opted DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: International Carbon Actio n Partnership. Source: World risk: The EU puts off its carbon border bill\ , or a big partner hits back https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-c8bd111 f14 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-c8bd111f14 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-899b1b8a99@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20280601 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20280602 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: First publication of ETS2 allowances in circulatio n\, by this date DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: European Parliament and Cou ncil of the EU. Source: World risk: The EU moves to delay its carbon price on fuel and heating a second time https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-8 99b1b8a99 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-899b1b8a99 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-c1169e93a8@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20280630 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20280701 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: End of the proposed transition regime (bill) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, tentative. Source: Diario Correo. Source: Wor ld risk: Informal miners block Peru's national roads as their permit regis ter ends https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-c1169e93a8 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-c1169e93a8 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:c-002@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20280718 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20280719 SUMMARY:Our call: Which of six registered scenarios describes Iran on 18 Ju ly 2028\, and does any single one become likely? (our call 13.74%) DESCRIPTION:Our call\, declared. Our call 13.74%: Iran to mid-2028: a Guard -managed war of attrition. Sealed before release\; scored when it resolves . The largest Iran exposure most firms carry sits outside Iran: the strait \, the oil price\, the compliance chain and Gulf assets. Source: Forecast register\, C-002 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=C-002 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=C-002 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-1ca031a429@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20280718 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20280719 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Strature C-002 scenarios for Iran resolve (F-0020\ , Guard-Managed Attrition: 13.74%\, 7 Aug 2026) DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: World risk: The Strait of H ormuz shuts again https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-1ca031a429 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-1ca031a429 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-cdd36b6f@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20280718 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20280719 SUMMARY:Signpost: C-002's six registered scenarios resolve. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Islamic Republ ic of Iran (Gulf war / Hormuz) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-CDD3 6B6F URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-CDD36B6F TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-680a517a4b@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20280718 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20280719 SUMMARY:Signpost: The Red Sea stays closed to most shipping: Houthi attacks \, Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal: F-0010 and F-0020 (C-002)\, nearest r elated forecasts on the hub\, resolve. Strature forecast F-0010: 9.2% (23 Jul 2026)\; Strature forecast F-0020: 13.74% (7 Aug 2026) DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: The Red Sea stays clos ed to most shipping: Houthi attacks\, Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal htt ps://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-680a517a4b URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-680a517a4b TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:f-0168@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20281231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20290101 SUMMARY:Our call: In any month up to 31 December 2028\, will Trans Mountain apportion uncommitted (spot) nominations\, a sign the line is full? (our call 20%) DESCRIPTION:Our call\, declared. Our call 20%. Sealed before release\; scor ed when it resolves. Trans Mountain is Canada's one oil route to the West Coast\; once it fills\, crude has no new way off the US refinery system. S ource: Forecast register\, C-006 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=F-016 8 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=F-0168 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:q-026@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20281231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20290101 SUMMARY:Our call: By 31 December 2028\, how much more large-load grid capac ity will Alberta allocate\, and will British Columbia repeat its call for demand? (our call 25%) DESCRIPTION:Our call\, declared. Our call 25%: By 31 December 2028\, Albert a allocates 1\,200-2\,400 MW more and BC repeats its call. Sealed before r elease\; scored when it resolves. The brief finds Alberta's round rewarded readiness\, not time in the queue\, so for a data centre or other large l oad a queue position alone does not secure power. Source: Forecast registe r\, Q-026 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=Q-026 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=Q-026 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-0ce1b34011@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20290120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20290121 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: End of the US President's term\; the PQ's earliest referendum date DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Noovo Info. Source: World r isk: Quebec's new PQ government tables a referendum bill or opens an offic ial sovereignty consultation https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0ce1b34 011 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-0ce1b34011 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-955bb4aed8@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20290120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20290121 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Zero drug rate for firms with pricing deals ends DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: The White House. Source: Wo rld risk: The US raises its tariff on Swiss goods or Swiss medicines https ://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-955bb4aed8 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-955bb4aed8 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-d52706a7a8@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20290120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20290121 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Zero rate for firms with pricing deals ends DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: The White House. Source: Wo rld risk: The US raises its drug tariff on EU medicines above 15% https:// strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d52706a7a8 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-d52706a7a8 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-eff1bf97c9@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20290120 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20290121 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Latest construction start for the half-rate Sectio n 232 incentive DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Federal Register. Source: W orld risk: A court halts the planned aluminium smelter at Inola\, Oklahoma https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-eff1bf97c9 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-eff1bf97c9 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:f-0235@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20290331 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20290401 SUMMARY:Our call: By 31 Mar 2029\, does the 2029 Government Work Report or the Ministry of Finance's budget report state that the existing stock of h idden local-government debt has been fully cleared? (our call 40%) DESCRIPTION:Our call\, declared. Our call 40%. Sealed before release\; scor ed when it resolves. It tests whether Beijing declares its debt clean-up f inished\; wording that the task has been 'basically' completed does not co unt. Source: Forecast register\, C-005 https://strature.net/calendar/#card =F-0235 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=F-0235 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-89c33c89f1@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20290331 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20290401 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Food rate cut ends\, if enacted DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: House of Representatives. S ource: World risk: The Diet enacts a consumption-tax cut https://strature. net/calendar/#card=w-89c33c89f1 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-89c33c89f1 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-e1411978dd@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20290709 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20290710 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: UK Parliament dissolves by law if no election is c alled DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Wikipedia. Source: World ri sk: Europe's right turn: the RN in France\, the AfD in Germany\, Reform UK https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e1411978dd URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-e1411978dd TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-44d3ed8722@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20290815 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20290816 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: Latest date for the next UK general election DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Wikipedia. Source: World ri sk: Europe's right turn: the RN in France\, the AfD in Germany\, Reform UK https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-44d3ed8722 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-44d3ed8722 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:f-0234@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20290930 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20291001 SUMMARY:Our call: Between 11 Jan 2027 and 30 Sep 2029\, does a US proclamat ion or Federal Register notice raise the additional tariff on all or subst antially all Chinese-origin goods above the rate in force on 10 Jan 2027? (our call 40%) DESCRIPTION:Our call\, declared. Our call 40%. Sealed before release\; scor ed when it resolves. The brief names it the likeliest of its severe risks\ , at 40%. Source: Forecast register\, C-005 https://strature.net/calendar/ #card=F-0234 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=F-0234 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-873556c216@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20300402 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20300403 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: The 20% onshoring rate rises to 100% DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: The White House. Source: Wo rld risk: The US raises its drug tariff on EU medicines above 15% https:// strature.net/calendar/#card=w-873556c216 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-873556c216 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:q-025@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20300626 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20300627 SUMMARY:Our call: By 26 June 2030\, how many projects will be listed under the Building Canada Act\, and will a section 35 rights-holder have started a court challenge relating to the Act? (our call 36%) DESCRIPTION:Our call\, declared. Our call 36%: By 26 June 2030\, 5 or more projects are listed and a s.35 challenge is commenced. Sealed before relea se\; scored when it resolves. The brief finds the Act does not speed up as sessment: it substitutes a conclusion for the assessment's outcome\, while a section 35 rights-holder gets a consultation process. Source: Forecast register\, Q-025 https://strature.net/calendar/#card=Q-025 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=Q-025 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sg-432e6658@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20300626 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20300627 SUMMARY:Signpost: Q-025 listing window closes\; at least one listing is 90% \, our estimate\, scored when it resolves. One project was listed by order of 1 Oct 2026\, after the forecast was registered on 5 Sep 2026. DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, tentative. Source: Strature readings: Canada (Canada 's capital projects) https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-432E6658 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=SG-432E6658 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:TENTATIVE END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-5598125b2a@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20300626 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20300627 SUMMARY:Signpost: A First Nation's court challenge keeps the Pacific Link l isting in question: Q-025 forecasts resolve DESCRIPTION:Signpost\, declared. Source: World risk: A First Nation's court challenge keeps the Pacific Link listing in question https://strature.net /calendar/#card=w-5598125b2a URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-5598125b2a TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:w-25fc574dc7@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20310301 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20310302 SUMMARY:Scheduled event: China's anti-dumping duty on Canadian canola seed expires unless renewed DESCRIPTION:Scheduled event\, declared. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food C anada. Source: World risk: China's tariffs on Canadian canola meal\, peas\ , lobster and crab return on 1 January 2027 https://strature.net/calendar/ #card=w-25fc574dc7 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=w-25fc574dc7 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:f-0236@strature.net DTSTAMP:20261031T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20330930 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20331001 SUMMARY:Our call: In the World Bank series for China's household consumptio n share of GDP\, read on 30 Sep 2033\, are any two consecutive annual valu es from 2026 to 2031 both above 40.0%? (our call 35%) DESCRIPTION:Our call\, declared. Our call 35%. Sealed before release\; scor ed when it resolves. It is the brief's long test of a turn to households: two years above the 2015-2024 range. Source: Forecast register\, C-005 htt ps://strature.net/calendar/#card=F-0236 URL:https://strature.net/calendar/#card=F-0236 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR